Minnesota extended their series with a 105-100 win on Tuesday night, closing the Mavs series lead to three games to one. But history is against them: teams down 3-0 are anemic when trying to overcome such a series lead; Minnesota however is priced at +420 to complete their comeback and needs only three victories — two at home — for it to happen despite history being against them the Timberwolves have a shot.
Even though Dallas leads 3-1 in this series, the Mavericks only have a seven point differential leaf in this series – showing that this matchup is much closer than initial results suggest and Game 5 promises to be exciting!
Mavericks vs Timberwolves
Spread: Minnesota -5
Moneyline Minnesota +165
Moneyline Timberwolves -199
Over/Under 209.5
These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 05/30/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Mavericks to Cover
Game 5 presents both teams with opportunities to correct errors from Game 4. In Dallas’ case, Doncic and Irving combined for 44 points on 13-of-39 shooting—significantly below their respective averages—which led to 13 turnovers, which led to Minnesota scoring 30 points off those turnovers.
These teams can make some adjustments here, but given how close this series has been, Dallas’s number is too high.
This line opened at -4 and quickly shot up to Wolves -5. However, I am intrigued by Dallas with the spread. Three out of the four games have been decided by five or fewer points, with Dallas winning by nine in one instance. Also, if Lively were to return, he would provide an immediate boost for Dallas.
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Moneyline
The Mavericks on the moneyline is a great value pick. Bit, I still think the better value is to take Fallas with the points. The best way to beat the Timberwolves is to give the -5 points, no value exists on the money line for them. If you are looking for the best sportsbook, we’ve got you covered as we break down the
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DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Mavericks to cover
Money line value on Mavericks
Take the Mavericks and the Points
Luka to have a big game
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under in this game is 209.5. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the over. I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair, with the Mavericks shooting the ball much better than they did in game four.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 209.5
Odds favor game in the 100s
Game will be played at a fast pace
Rebounding will be key
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Spread Analysis
The pointspread is a little to big, I think Minnesota -3 or -4 would be the best bet in this game, so I see value with taking the Mavericks and the points in this game. These are two closely matched teams.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Timberwolves to Win
Which team controls the post
Timberwolves are the better team
Dallas need to shoot lights out
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Head-to-Head
Minnesota won three of these teams four matchups this season and all four games cleared the over/under set for this game at 207.5. The Playoffs have been different, with Luka and Irving proving to be the better big-game players; with that said, the Timberwolves played well in game four to stay alive and now have two out of the next three at home. Check out our guide to betting on
NBA Playoff Parlays.
Injuries and Suspensions
Mavericks Injury Report
Lively- Questionable
Prosper- Out
Doncic- Questionable
Timberwolves Injury Report
Clark- Out
Conley- Questionable
Conclusion
This series gets interesting if Minnesota can win at home tonight, but Dallas has proven they can win in Minnesota as they did in the first two games of this series. To me, the line is great value, as I am betting the Mavericks +5 points. Take Dallas +5.
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