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The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak / Betting Tips / NBA Playoff Game 4 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks

NBA Playoff Game 4 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks: Odds, Tips and Predictions 05/28/24

NBA Betting Tips Β· - Β·

Publish Date: 05/28/2024
Fact checked by: Simon Briffa

Luka Doncic once again delivered late-game heroics for Dallas as they took a commanding 3-0 series lead against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Teams up 3-0 are 154-0 when playing to this point in a series, so will Minnesota be able to put up any resistance or are we headed toward another Celtics vs. Mavericks NBA Finals match-up?

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Mavericks vs Timberwolves

  • Spread: Dallas -2
  • Moneyline Minnesota +114
  • Moneyline Timberwolves +108
  • Over/Under 210

These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 05/28/24, coming from Draft Kings.

Our Best Pick: Timberwolves to Win

Doncic and Irving have made the difference, averaging 60.4 PPG to Edwards/Towns’ 37 PPG average.

Edwards and Towns should find it easier to break through Dallas’ defense without Lively in Game 4, as evidenced by Edwards nearly scoring a triple-double (26 points, nine rebounds and nine assists) during Game 3. If Edwards can find his stride then that may force Dallas into reacting quickly enough to stay in contention.

Minnesota will likely extend this series, but is this truly their chance at coming back from being down 3-0? While it will be an uphill climb, implied odds on FanDuel at +1400 (FanDuel) suggest just 6.67% implied odds are just about manageable given most 3-0 scenarios have one team significantly superior to another (e.g. Boston vs Indiana 2024) yet in this instance the point margin across three games was only 13 points and game 7 would take place in Minnesota where Minnesota would likely hold an edge if forced into it by FanDuel at home with home field advantage for game 7.

Consider this an opportunity to bolster the Wolves in this series by backing them on the money line in Game 4, and with Minnesota hosting Game 5 again, there may be further leverage available here to you if Minnesota offers their Game 2 price (-240) when placed as part of a parlay at such odds (+198).

Momentum can shift rapidly in these series, and while Minnesota may not be able to complete an outright comeback, they are too talented a team for it not to put up some sort of fight in this series. Check out the latest Western Conference odds for the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Timberwolves to Win
  • Rebounding will be the key
  • Dallas at Home
  • Minnesota to play well
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Mavericks vs Timberwolves Moneyline

The Timnerwolves on the moneyline is a great value pick. I see them pulling this game out. Dallas is in a great situation, and the Timberwolves will play for their lives in this game. If you are looking for the best sportsbook, we’ve got you covered as we break down the best sports betting app

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Timberwolves to Win
  • Money line value on Timberwolves
  • Take the Timberwolves and the Points
  • Towns to have a big game
Bet $5, Get $150 Instantly
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Β 

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Over/Under Analysis

The Over/Under in this game is 210. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the over. I expect this game to be a high-scoring affair, with the TWolves pulling it out in the end.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 210
  • Odds favor game in the 100s
  • Game will be played at a fast pace
  • Rebounding will be key
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Β 

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Spread Analysis

To me, this point spread is dead on in this game. Minnesota has proven to be the better team throughout this season, but Dallas has played great on the road for the first two games of the series. You have to expect Minnesota to play much better in this game, even if it is on the road. With all that said, the Mavericks have proven to be the better team in this series and will close it out, just not yet.

DraftKings
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Timberwolves to Win
  • Which team controls the post
  • Timberwolves are the better team
  • Dallas need to shoot lights out
Bet $5, Get $150 Instantly
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Β 

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Head-to-Head

Minnesota won three of these teams four matchups this season and all four games cleared the over/under set for this game at 207.5. The Playoffs have been different with Luka and Irving proving to be the better big-game players. Check out our guide to betting on NBA Playoff Parlays.

Injuries and Suspensions

Mavericks Injury Report

  • Kleber- Out
  • Prosper- Out
  • Doncic- Questionable

Timberwolves Injury Report

  • Clark- Out
  • Conley- Questionable

Β 

Conclusion

Dallas has won all three games in this series, but they have all been close and competitive, and I would not expect anything less in this game. Minnesota 108Β  Dallas 106.

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