The Wolves were masterful at stopping Nikola Jokic from dominating as a passer in Game 1. Though Jokic registered nine assists, his stats might mislead, given that he had only 12 potential assists during this game.
The Wolves successfully limited Jokic by daring Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon to overcome them in every screening action between them. His defender stayed close without helping off to inhibit Murray. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert roamed freely around the paint while leaving Gordon open in corners to prevent easy rim looks for Jokic and Murray.
On the flip side, we saw Anthony Edwards run wild against Denver, scoring 43 points on 17-of-29 shooting from the field. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope appears slow due to an ankle injury he sustained during Round 1, making him too small to guard Edwards adequately; therefore, later in the game, we saw Eddie Gordon used against Edwards; however, Gordon has looked slow this postseason without possessing enough foot speed to stay in front of Edwards consistently.
All of this has led me to expect Christian Braun to receive more minutes, as he appeared as one of the Nuggets’ most capable defenders against Edwards in Game 1. Braun led all bench minutes with 19, so I expect he could see close to 25 in Game 2. I plan to take his points prop over 4.5 because he should get some open looks once more.
- Spread: Nuggets -5.5
- Moneyline Pacers +194
- Moneyline Knicks -235
- Over/Under 205.5
These odds were updated at 6 pm EST on 05/05/24, coming from Draft Kings.
Our Best Pick: Nuggets to Cover
I like the Nuggets to win by more than five and cover here. Their urgency should increase now that they’re down 1-0 in the series, and Jokic could become more effective offensively as the series progresses.
Jokic will begin finding solutions to the Wolves’ defensive scheme and progressively improve throughout the series. Expect Denver to put forth an intense effort and cover in Game 2. With all that being said, this looks to be a six or seven-game series that the T-Wolves can win. Check out the latest
Western Conference odds
for the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
Tip: Bet Nuggets to Cover
- T-Wolves Defense was stellar in game 1
-
Jokic needs a big game
- Nuggets have to win on the Glass
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Moneyline
Stay off the money line unless you think the T-Wolves will win. Taking the Nuggets on the money line is not a good value bet. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
best sports betting app
Tip: Bet Nuggets to Cover
-
No Money line value on the Nuggets
-
Money line value for the Timberwolves
-
Nuggets should come out strong
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Over/Under Analysis
The Over/Under is 205.5 in this game. This is a tricky over/under, but I would lean towards the over. I expect the Nuggets to find some answers for the Minnesota defense and for this to be a game played in the 100s.
- Odds favor game in the 100s
-
Nuggets to control tempo
- Jokic to have a big game
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Analysis
This point spread is solid, I would have expected more of a Nuggets by 4.5, but it still is a decent line to bet the Nuggets covering. Jokic is the best player in the NBA and I expect him to play like it in this game.
Tip: Bet the Pacers to Cover
- Knicks will control tempo
-
Knicks Home Court Advanatage
-
Rebounding will be crucials
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Timberwolves vs Nuggets Head-to-Head
These teams split their four regular-season games, and there was no home-court advantage in the four games the teams played. Game one showed that was true, as Minnesota stole game one of this series. Check out our guide to betting on
NBA Playoff Parlays.
Injuries and Suspensions
Timberwolves Injury Report
Nuggets Injury Report
- Cancar- Out
- Murray- Questionable
Conclusion
The Timberwolves look like a solid pick to win this series, with that being said the Nuggets won’t go easily and Nikola Jokic will step up to lead the Nuggets to a needed win. Nuggets 111 Timberwolves 103.
