UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan Odds, Picks and Predictions 10/01/22

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Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan

On Saturday, the UFC Fight Night 211 main event will feature Mackenzie Dern versus Yan Xiaonan. This is a clash between highly ranked strawweight women. Dern hopes to build on her narrow win over Tecia Torres at UFC 273, which has elevated her to the No. 5 in the UFC women’s strawweight rankings. On the other hand, Yan will try to stay at No.6. Yan will try to avoid dropping from No. 6 in the rankings. Yan, who lost to Marina Rodriguez in a split decision six months ago at UFC 272, is now on a losing streak of two fights.

Mackenzie Dern, a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, is also an accomplished grappler. Dern has taken home a variety of medals she won during her amateur Brazilian Jiu Jitsu career; Dern also won gold at the 2015 ADCC Submission Fighting World Championship.

Since then, the 29-year-old has established herself as a skilled submission specialist. Seven of her twelve pro-MMA wins were won by tap out. In each of her four previous submission wins, Dern claimed Performance of the Night bonuses. Three of those wins were within five minutes.

Dern is not known for her ability to strike. Since joining the UFC, she has averaged 3.16 significant strikes per minute and has never won by TKO or KO. Check out the top UFC betting sites.

Yan was a knockout specialist in her early career. Six of her nine first-round victories were by knockout. Yan has improved her game since joining UFC. Seven of her eight octagon appearances went three rounds. She has not seen action in the championship rounds.

Yan is among the UFC’s all-time top-ranked women’s strawweight in significant strikes landed, but she was out-struck in both of her recent losses. Last year, she lost a crushing second-round TKO to Carla Esparza, the current champion, at UFC Vegas 27.

Yan also had to struggle on the mat against skilled grapplers. In her three previous fights, opponents managed almost 15 minutes of control time.

Prediction: Dern by submission

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Trinaldo vs Brown Odds & Pick

Francisco Trinaldo will aim for a third consecutive win when he takes on Randy Brown, a fellow welterweight, in the UFC Vegas 61 co-main event. Trinaldo won a unanimous decision over Danny Roberts at UFC 274, so he has seen eight of his ten previous fights go the distance.

Trinaldo is not only durable but also has proven his ability to win standing up or on the mat. Trinaldo has won five of his career victories by submission, but none since 2013.

Randy Brown is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt and has won five career submissions. His latest win was against Alex Oliveira, just 2:50 into their UFC 261 match. Check out the top UFC betting sites.

Brown’s most recent losses were both by Vicente Luque (second round KO) and Niko Price (second round KO).

Prediction: Brown to win on moneyline

Other UFC Vegas 61 Picks

• Maxim Grishin (-175): Grishin struggled to make weight and compete while fighting as a heavyweight, but was dominant while going undefeated in his past nine fights at 205 pounds.
• Trevin Jones (+185): Expect hard-hitting Jones to regularly tee off on Raoni Barcelos, who has a long history of absorbing a lot of significant strikes and he is going to absorb more on Saturday.
• Jesse Ronson (+120): Ronson has demonstrated great mat skills during a pair of recent first-round submission finishes, and he is poised to do it yet again.

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