UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott Prediction, Betting Odds & Prop Bets

Date: Saturday, October 17, 2026 Prelims: 5:00 PM ET Main Card: 8:00 PM ET Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada TV/Streaming: Paramount+ Main Event: Joaquin Buckley vs. Mike Malott — Welterweight

The UFC returns to Edmonton with an important ranked welterweight battle as No. 10 Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley faces No. 13 Mike “Proper” Malott. Malott headlines in Canada riding a four-fight winning streak, while Buckley attempts to protect his Top-10 position after consecutive losses.

Buckley vs. Malott Betting Odds

Joaquin Buckley: Approximately +100 to +110Mike Malott: Approximately -120 to -135

Current markets have Malott installed as a slight favorite. Covers lists Buckley between approximately +100 and +110 at several books, with Malott ranging around -120 to -135.

Buckley vs. Malott Fight Preview

Buckley enters with a 21-8 record and remains one of the welterweight division’s most dangerous knockout punchers. Fifteen of his 21 professional victories have come by KO or TKO. He lands approximately 3.62 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.10 and owns a 70 percent takedown-defense rate.

The concern is his recent wrestling defense against elite competition.

After winning six consecutive fights following his return to welterweight, Buckley lost a unanimous decision to former champion Kamaru Usman in June 2025. Usman repeatedly took him down and controlled significant portions of the five-round fight. Sean Brady exploited the same weakness at UFC 328 in May 2026, dominating the grappling exchanges en route to a unanimous decision with scores of 30-25, 30-25 and 30-27.

That creates an obvious blueprint for Malott.

The Canadian enters at 14-2-1 with six knockout victories and six submissions. Nine of his wins have come during the first round, demonstrating that he can finish opponents both standing and on the ground.

Malott has won four consecutive fights and 10 of his last 11. His biggest victory came in April when he stopped former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns with strikes at 2:08 of the third round.

Malott lands approximately 4.02 significant strikes per minute, more than Buckley, while absorbing 3.09. He also averages 1.63 takedowns and 0.65 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Malott is not the same caliber of pure wrestler as Usman or Brady, but he does not need to duplicate their performances completely.

He needs to make Buckley think about takedowns.

If Malott can threaten level changes, force clinches and create scrambles, Buckley may become less willing to plant his feet and unload the explosive combinations that make him so dangerous.

Buckley’s path is much clearer.

Keep the fight standing.

Force Malott backward.

Make him pay for every wrestling entry.

Buckley possesses the bigger one-shot knockout threat and can change the fight instantly if Malott becomes careless while closing distance.

The Canadian crowd could also become a factor. Malott has gone 5-1 in six UFC fights in Canada and has increasingly become one of the country’s most prominent fighters.

Top 4 Betting Angles

Prop Bet #1: Mike Malott Moneyline

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Mike Malott Moneyline

• Four-Fight Winning Streak
• Grappling Advantage
• Home-Country Momentum

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Malott is the overall selection.

His combination of striking, submissions and wrestling gives him more ways to win, while Buckley’s last two opponents demonstrated how effective sustained grappling can be against him.

Prop Bet #2: Fight Does Not Go the Distance

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Fight Does Not Go the Distance

• Knockout Power
• Submission Threat
• Five-Round Main Event

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Both fighters are proven finishers.

Buckley has 15 knockout victories. Malott has 12 finishes among his 14 wins—six knockouts and six submissions. Five rounds provide plenty of opportunities for either man’s finishing weapons to become decisive.

Prop Bet #3: Mike Malott by Submission

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Malott by Submission

• Six Career Submissions
• Buckley Grappling Concerns
• Better Payout

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Malott by submission provides an attractive alternative to his moneyline.

Buckley survived the ground attacks of Usman and Brady, but both exposed significant defensive problems. Malott owns six submission victories and should aggressively attack the neck if Buckley gives up his back while attempting to stand.

Prop Bet #4: Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Buckley by KO/TKO

• 15 Career Knockouts
• Explosive Power
• Underdog Value

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Buckley by knockout is the best way to back the underdog.

Seventy-one percent of his professional wins have come by knockout or technical knockout. If Malott fails to establish his grappling, Buckley’s speed and explosive punching power could end the fight quickly.

Keys to Victory

Joaquin Buckley: Maintain the center, punish takedown attempts, avoid prolonged clinches, attack Malott’s body, force striking exchanges and remain patient when looking for the knockout.

Mike Malott: Mix striking with level changes, pressure Buckley toward the fence, force repeated grappling exchanges, attack the back during scrambles and avoid standing stationary in Buckley’s punching range.

Fighters to Watch

Joaquin Buckley: The No. 10 contender desperately needs to stop a two-fight losing streak after previous momentum had pushed him near the welterweight title picture.

Mike Malott: Canada’s rising contender attempts to earn the biggest victory of his career and potentially move into the welterweight Top 10.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius: The co-main event matches the No. 4 and No. 6 ranked women’s flyweight contenders in another high-stakes bout.

Tanner Boser: The Edmonton heavyweight competes in front of his hometown crowd against dangerous Brazilian striker Jhonata Diniz.

Louis Jourdain: The Canadian bantamweight faces Timmy Cuamba on the main card as part of a lineup loaded with Canadian fighters.

The Verdict

Prediction: Mike Malott by Third-Round Submission

Best Bet: Mike Malott Moneyline

Best Supporting Prop: Fight Does Not Go the Distance

Best Method-of-Victory Bet: Mike Malott by Submission

Long-Shot Bet: Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO

Buckley is the more dangerous single-shot striker, and Malott cannot afford to become overconfident simply because Usman and Brady controlled Buckley on the ground.

Expect Buckley to have his best success early, using explosive combinations and forcing Malott to respect his power.

Malott should gradually change the fight.

Rather than immediately forcing takedowns, the Canadian can use level-change feints to make Buckley hesitate before throwing. Once Buckley’s reactions become predictable, Malott can begin forcing him toward the fence and connecting his wrestling attacks.

The longer the fight continues, the more those grappling exchanges should favor Malott.

A scramble during the third round creates the decisive opening. Buckley attempts to return to his feet, Malott takes the back and attacks the neck.

Mike Malott wins by third-round submission, extends his winning streak to five and earns the biggest victory of his career while moving closer to the UFC welterweight Top 10.