UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Prediction, Betting Odds & Prop Bets

Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026 Early Prelims: 5:30 PM ET Prelims: 7:00 PM ET Main Card: 9:00 PM ET Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California TV/Streaming: Paramount+

The UFC returns to Los Angeles with a flyweight championship rematch as Joshua Van defends his title against former champion Alexandre Pantoja. Their first meeting ended only 26 seconds into UFC 323 when Pantoja suffered an elbow injury, giving Van the championship. Van has since successfully defended the belt with a fifth-round TKO over Tatsuro Taira.

Van vs. Pantoja Betting Odds

Joshua Van: Approximately -130Alexandre Pantoja: Approximately +110

Van enters as a slight favorite, although current sportsbook prices range around -115 to -135, while Pantoja is generally available near even money to +110.

Van vs. Pantoja Fight Preview

Van enters at 17-2 with nine knockout victories and two submissions. The 24-year-old champion has quickly developed into one of the UFC’s highest-volume strikers, landing approximately 8.43 significant strikes per minute.

Pantoja brings a completely different résumé.

“The Cannibal” is 30-6 with eight knockouts and 12 submissions. Before the unusual ending against Van, he had successfully defended the UFC flyweight championship four times against Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura and Kai Kara-France.

The greatest contrast is pace versus grappling.

Van wants extended striking exchanges. He attacks with combinations, constantly changes targets and is comfortable maintaining a demanding pace for five rounds. His fifth-round stoppage of Taira proved that his offense can remain dangerous deep into championship fights.

Pantoja’s clearest advantage is on the ground.

The former champion averages approximately 2.79 takedowns and 0.98 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Van averages only 0.82 takedowns, making wrestling much more central to Pantoja’s strategy.

Pantoja should avoid turning this into a pure kickboxing match.

Van lands almost twice as many significant strikes per minute and is nine years younger. However, Van also absorbs approximately 5.82 significant strikes per minute, so his aggressive style creates opportunities for counters.

The fight changes dramatically if Pantoja consistently reaches Van’s back.

His control and submission game can erase Van’s volume advantage. UFC’s own technical preview highlighted Pantoja’s ability to secure back control as one of the central questions of the rematch.

Van therefore needs disciplined takedown defense, quick stand-ups and enough patience to avoid giving Pantoja easy grappling opportunities.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Prop Bet #1: Joshua Van Moneyline

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Joshua Van Moneyline

• Youth Advantage
• Elite Volume
• Five-Round Cardio

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Van’s speed, youth and extraordinary striking output make the champion the strongest overall selection.

If he keeps the fight standing for long stretches, his volume should allow him to accumulate rounds.

Prop Bet #2: Fight Goes Over 2.5 Rounds

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Over 2.5 Rounds

• Championship Experience
• Durable Fighters
• Competitive Matchup

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Both fighters have proven they can operate deep into championship fights.

Van stopped Taira in Round 5, while Pantoja has repeatedly completed five-round title fights. A tactical battle between Van’s striking and Pantoja’s grappling could extend well beyond the midpoint.

Prop Bet #3: Joshua Van by Decision

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Van by Decision

• High Striking Volume
• Youth
• Championship Pace

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Van by decision offers better potential value than his moneyline.

He does not need to finish Pantoja. The champion can win by defending enough takedowns, forcing striking exchanges and using his superior output to bank rounds.

Prop Bet #4: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Pantoja by Submission

• 12 Career Submissions
• Back Control
• Underdog Value

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Pantoja by submission is the strongest underdog alternative.

Twelve of his 30 victories have come by submission, and his grappling remains the clearest stylistic threat to Van.

Keys to Victory

Joshua Van

• Maintain high striking volume.
• Use lateral movement against takedowns.
• Avoid giving Pantoja his back.
• Attack the body throughout the fight.
• Make Pantoja wrestle from distance.
• Increase the pace during later rounds.

Alexandre Pantoja

• Pressure without accepting unnecessary striking exchanges.
• Chain takedown attempts together.
• Force Van against the fence.
• Attack the back whenever Van scrambles.
• Slow the champion’s pace through grappling.
• Conserve enough energy for five rounds.

Fighters to Watch

Joshua Van: The 24-year-old champion attempts to remove any uncertainty created by the injury ending of their first matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja: The former champion attempts to become only the third fighter in UFC history to regain the flyweight championship.

Arman Tsarukyan: The No. 2-ranked lightweight faces explosive contender Mauricio Ruffy in a five-round co-main event.

Mauricio Ruffy: The dangerous striker enters after a highlight-reel knockout of Michael Chandler.

Dooho Choi: Choi faces former Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull in an intriguing featherweight matchup.

Gable Steveson: The Olympic wrestling champion makes another major heavyweight appearance against Sean Sharaf.

The Verdict

Prediction: Joshua Van by Unanimous Decision

Best Bet: Joshua Van Moneyline

Best Supporting Prop: Over 2.5 Rounds

Best Method-of-Victory Bet: Joshua Van by Decision

Long-Shot Bet: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission

The first meeting told us virtually nothing because Pantoja’s injury ended the championship fight after only 26 seconds.

This time, expect a genuine five-round battle.

Pantoja should have early success forcing Van into grappling exchanges, but Van’s 76 percent takedown defense, youth and conditioning should make prolonged control increasingly difficult.

Van should gradually establish his jab and combinations, attack the body and force Pantoja to spend more time striking than he wants.

Pantoja remains dangerous every time the fight reaches the mat, particularly if he secures the back.

But over 25 minutes, Van’s speed and extraordinary striking volume should produce the cleaner offensive work.

Joshua Van wins a competitive unanimous decision, successfully defends the UFC flyweight championship and finally earns a complete victory over Alexandre Pantoja.