March Madness Upset Predictions 2024: Which Underdogs have the best chance of reaching the Sweet 16?

We have seen multiple Sweet Sixteen Cinderella teams in the last few years. Will this year have more underdogs that reach the round of sixteen? Today, we will look at the top underdog possibilities for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Last year, we saw two surprise Cinderellas advance to the Final Four, and one made it all the way to the National Championship game before the clock struck midnight.

Sweet 16 Cinderella’s

No. 7 seed Dayton Flyers

First-round matchup odds: 1.5-point underdogs vs. No. 10 seed Nevada

National Title odds: +15000

Dayton almost seems too easy to include here, having spent much of its season as the sole unranked squad from a non-power conference. Yet it would be unfair not to include DaRon Holmes II and the Flyers; they went 24-7 during the season and scored at least 91 points four different times!

Dayton will not face an easy journey. Arizona and UNC stand in their way in the West Region tournament. Still, an upset never seems beyond reach when dealing with Anthony Grant and his Flyers, capable of scoring from deep, dominating every aspect of their games, and forcing their opponents to adapt their style from the opening tip until the final whistle.

The first-round matchup against Nevada looks like a toss-up but a winnable game. The second-round matchup against Arizona looks like a tall task because it is, but the Flyers have a real shot to win that game.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Dayton Sweet 16 +750

• Top 25 All Season
• Great Coach
• Played a tough non-conference schedule

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No. 13 Samford Bulldogs

First-round matchup: 7.5-point underdogs vs. Kansas

National title odds: +100000

Bucky McMillan’s Samford team earned 30 victories this season and now stands a good chance at an unlikely run thanks to an opening-round matchup against Kansas and their injury woes. Kansas hasn’t been at its best this year; most recently they were upset 72-52 by Cincinnati in the Big 12 tournament.

Kansas was showing clear signs of distress prior to its unceremonious Big 12 beatdown by Houston at the end of the regular season; it managed only 46 points against Houston and is only 1-4 over its past five contests overall. Perhaps being considered the weakest 4-seed in tournament history makes Kansas even more vulnerable; therefore, Samford may just be able to do what would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. Check out our top March Madness parlays for this year’s March Madness!

A second-round matchup against Gonzaga or McNeese will be tough but not undoable for Samford.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Samford Sweet 16 +750

• Thirty win season
• Kansas has many injuries
• Great three point shooting team

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No. 13 College of Charleston Cougars

First-round matchup: 10.5-point underdogs vs. Alabama

National title odds: +100000

Charleston usually dominates discussions of the Coastal Athletic Association when we mention it, usually for basketball-related reasons. When the Cougars kicked off March Madness early with their victory against Stony Brook (82-79 in an overtime thriller), they set their mark early and could make a serious run over the next three weeks.

Charleston’s hot shooting, spearheaded by Reyne Smith of Australia, has proven too much for 12 consecutive opponents, 14 out of 15 games, and 23 out of 26 overall. Under impressive head coach Pat Kelsey and his staff, they play well on both ends of the floor.

Charleston will begin the tournament against Alabama, which finished its regular season 2-4. Alabama can score, but its defense can often let it down; therefore, if Charleston can get on an offensive roll early, it could certainly make its mark in this tournament. Could this game someday make our list of greatest March Madness first-round upsets?

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Charleston Sweet 16 +1400

• Charleston has won 12 straight
• Alabama poor defensively
• Great three point shooting team

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No.10 Drake Bulldogs

First-round matchup: -1.5 Favorite vs Washington State

National Title Odds: +20000

The Drake Bulldogs will return to the dancefloor for their third appearance under coach Darian DeVries.

The Bulldogs’ Missouri Valley Conference Tournament championship win earned them an automatic bid, a No. 10 seed at this year’s NCAA tournament. They will face the No. 7-seeded Washington State Cougars of Omaha on Thursday morning. Drake won two out of three games against the Indiana State Sycamores a team ranked top 30 in net rankings.

DeVries and this Bulldog offense have been unstoppable all season, with DeVries scoring 21.7 points per game while shooting an impressive 36% from three. Drake will need to maximize limited possessions for success in this matchup.

A second-round matchup against the Iowa State Cyclones could be a favourable matchup for the Bulldogs.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Drake Sweet 16 +650

• Drake scores a lot of points
• Drake is a veteran team
• Good three point shooting team

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No. 12 seed UAB Blazers

First-round matchup odds: 7.5-point underdogs vs. No. 5 seed San Diego State

National Title odds: +50000

UAB recently navigated a relatively smooth path to winning its sixth AAC Championship, outshining Wichita State, South Florida, and Temple all by double-digit margins on its way. Now 9-3 in its past 12, with impressive victories against Drake, FAU, and Memphis throughout the 2023-24 campaign, UAB stands as an easy sweet 16 contender!

Alejandro Vasquez and Yaxel Lendeborg have both been stellar contributors on this Rams team, which scores well, draws many fouls, and crashes the boards with physicality. Both players are key drivers behind their team’s success.

Andy Kennedy’s squad boasts a winning pedigree, so an upset win against San Diego State—which made the National Championship Game last year—shouldn’t be out of the question. UAB is 11-2 against the spread as an underdog, 4 for 4 at neutral sites, and 5 for five as road dogs. These statistics make UAB an excellent candidate to serve as a bracket-busting team that won’t back down under pressure against any opposition team.

A second-round matchup with Auburn will likely await the Blazers, and that is a winning possibility, Auburn has not been overly consistent this season, that and the UAB defense will give them a chance,

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: UAB Sweet 16 +600

• UAB good
• UAB is hot
• Auburn can be incosistent

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No. 12 seed James Madison Dukes

First-round matchup odds: 4.5-point underdogs vs. No. 5 seed Wisconsin

National Title odds: +35000

James Madison enters the tournament riding an impressive 13-game win streak that ended 31-3 and easily secured them Sun Belt Championship honors on March 11 – a major factor in their chances of making deep runs at tournament success.

James Madison now faces off against a Wisconsin team that can shoot but struggled defensively. James Madison boasts depth, experience, and efficiency on both ends of the court, making this mid-major program among a win could cause an extended winning streak.

JMU could face Duke in the second round, which I think JMU can win. This team matches up well with Houston, looking ahead to a possible Sweet 16 matchup. JMU could make a final four-run before it’s all over. JMU is included in our March Madness upset picks for the first round of the Tournament.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: James Madison Sweet 16 +600

• JMU 13 straight wins
• Badgers inconsistent
• JMU is deep

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