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#1 WE THE PEOPLE rebounded from a disappointing run in the Arkansas Derby and won the Peter Pan last time out, which is historically a good preparation for this. He should be able to cover the 12-furlong distance with his breeding. And most importantly, he appears to be the only one here with any early speed. He will make friends with any moisture on the ground, as he won both of his off-track races.
#2 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING was a long shot in the Preakness. While he had some difficulties, he did not hide in shame of his defeat. He looks as though the race shape won’t suit him. The distance is also a question mark. He looks a little exposed.
#3 NEST is worthy of consideration at a solid price, possibly even lower double-digits. She was so impressive in the Grade 1 Ashland win, and her Oaks run was almost as good as it looked. As the winner, she was given a clear run. Her pedigree is admirable for this distance. If she has stamina, maybe she can close the speed gap between herself and the fastest. Stamina might not be an option. She’s still a supportable, all-around type if she’s in the right spot.
#4 RICH STRIKE is a runner that provokes strong emotions. Although his Derby win is an incredible story, it wasn’t enjoyable from the perspective of a form analyst. Many serious horseplayers didn’t like his controversial decision to skip the Preakness. This is where the rubber meets the road. Will he follow up his Derby win with an impressive effort that leaves me with eggs on my face? Will he make a mid-range move, then run flattening out in the middle of the pack? The latter is what I am betting on.
#5 CREATIVE MISTER would have been my favorite pick if there had been any pace outside of We the People in this race. He did well in the Preakness and was bred for it. He’s the closest we have to a horse that has run in all three Triple Crown races (he won an allowance in the Derby undercard), and I would love for a horse with three good races in five weeks to prove it’s not so difficult in modern sport.
#6 MO DONEGAL He didn’t get the smooth run that many expected in the Kentucky Derby. Todd Pletcher’s record in this race is impressive. You know he will handle the distance and that he can also get a more consistent trip by stalking far from the back. His chances are good, but his price at 5-2 seems a bit too low to be thrilling.
#7 GOLDEN GLIDER was the runner I had to look up in this race. I was not overwhelmed when I finally did. We the People handled him efficiently in the Peter Pan. He has never run a race fast enough for the frame.
#8 BARBERROAD has been one of the most exciting horses on this year’s Triple Crown trail. He is a true fighter, and his determination makes him great for racing fans. John Ortiz is his young trainer, and he graduated from high school only a few miles away from Belmont Park. He doesn’t look fast enough, and his closing style is not suitable for him. He may be third or fourth due to his toughness, but I don’t think he can finish better than that.
1) We the People
2) Moe Donegal
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