USA vs. Latvia Olympic Men’s Hockey: Preview, Prediction and Top Prop Bets

Date: Thursday, February 12, 2026 Time: 3:10 PM ET / 12:10 PM PT Location: Milano Santagiulia Arena — Milan, Italy TV: USA Network / Peacock

The Matchup Context: The Favorites vs. The Underdogs

The United States men’s Olympic hockey team opens its 2026 Winter Games campaign against Latvia in a Group C battle that feels like a statement opportunity. After NHL players returned to the Olympics for the first time since 2014, Team USA assembled one of the deepest rosters in recent memory, blending elite NHL talent with experienced blue-liners and championship pedigree. Auston Matthews has been named captain after a standout NHL season, supported by alternate captains Matthew Tkachuk and Charlie McAvoy. The lineup also includes players like Dylan Larkin, Jack Eichel, Quinn Hughes, and Tage Thompson — a mix of scoring, speed, and defensive acumen befitting a gold-medal contender.

Latvia enters as the substantial underdog in this matchup, but they are no strangers to group-stage surprises. With NHLers like Elvis Merzlikins in net and veterans such as Zemgus Girgensons and Rihards Bukarts leading the charge, Latvia’s team can be competitive on any given day. Their path to success, however, hinges on a disciplined defensive structure and opportunistic scoring in transition.

At the start of Milan-Cortina 2026, the Americans are widely expected to dominate, backed by overwhelming talent and historical head-to-head success, but Latvia’s spirited play and physical style present a chance for an upset if Team USA slips into complacency.

Players to Watch

Team USA: Auston Matthews — As captain and one of the world’s premier goal scorers, Matthews’ ability to find space and shoot through traffic will be vital to jump-starting the U.S. offense. His presence alone demands Latvia’s defenders adjust their coverage, which could open up lanes for teammates.

Latvia: Elvis Merzlikins — The veteran goaltender is Latvia’s backbone. If Merzlikins can hold strong early and frustrate the American attack, Latvia stands a chance to keep the score close and extract confidence from an energetic underdog performance.

Keys to the Game

For Team USA to Win:

• Attack Early and Often: Scoring first and controlling puck possession will wear down Latvia’s defense.

• Special Teams Efficiency: Taking advantage of power plays could create early momentum.

For Latvia to Win:

• Goalie Standout: Merzlikins must steal periods with timely saves.

• Physical Play: Winning battles along the boards and disrupting U.S. cycling helps create second chances.

Betting Odds & Analysis

• Point Spread: USA -3.5 (approx)

• Moneyline: USA heavy favorite (-1600 to -3000 range) | Latvia +1100 to +1150

• Over/Under: ~6.5 goals

The Breakdown: On paper, this is one of the most lopsided games of the Olympic hockey tournament. USA’s roster — loaded with NHL stars and past international performers — gives them a massive edge in skill, depth, and scoring potential. Latvia has heart and experience but lacks the consistent firepower and defensive depth to match the Americans for a full 60 minutes. Betting markets reflect that with a steep U.S. favorite, but the over/under suggests scoring could be balanced by structured defensive play and goaltending.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Prop Bet #1: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal Scorer

Matthews is the linchpin of the USA offense and a natural catalyst in international play. Latvia’s defensive structure will likely collapse into the slot to prevent cross-ice passes and limit space for Matthews’ lethal wrist shot. But limiting Matthews is easier said than done — his ability to find soft spots in coverage, combined with elite finishing and a quick release, make him an obvious target in multiple score sheets.

This type of game script — where the U.S. is expected to lead early — often results in high-quality, early scoring chances for top forwards. Matthews will likely see the most ice time on the first power play unit and during critical offensive zone draws, giving him maximum opportunity to cash this prop. Given his track record and Latvia’s moderate defensive limitations against elite forwards, the anytime goal scorer line is one of the most reliable individual props in this matchup.

BetMGM

4.5/5

Prediction: Auston Matthews Anytime Goal Scorer

• Team USA Primary Scorer
• Early Offense Edge
• High Power Play Usage

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Prop Bet #2: Elvis Merzlikins Over 30 Saves

Merzlikins should see heavy puck traffic throughout this game, and Latvia will need him to be a difference-maker if they plan to stay competitive. The Americans aren’t just skilled — they’re relentless with shot volume and movement, particularly from the point and around the slot. Merzlikins has proven he can handle high workloads at the professional level, and facing a high-octane U.S. attack gives him plenty of chances to rack up saves.

When underdogs face superior opponents, one of their best strategies is to absorb pressure and force low-percentage shots from distance. This tends to increase save totals even if goals against remain moderate. Expect Merzlikins to be tested early and often, particularly on power plays and early exchanges, giving him the volume needed to clear this line.

DraftKings

4.5/5

Prediction: Elvis Merzlikins Over 30 Saves

• Underdog Goalie Workload
• High U.S. Shot Volume
• Power Play Pressure

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Prop Bet #3: USA Total Goals Over 3.5

This event prop reads like a math play. With elite NHL finishers and a strong depth chart, Team USA should have no problem generating multiple high-danger chances. Whether through even-strength cycles, transition bursts, or power play opportunities, the depth of scoring threats gives the Americans the upside to hit four or more goals.

Latvia will likely focus on clogging the middle and forcing outside shots, but sustained pressure and quality U.S. line changes should wear down defensive coverage as the game progresses. Early goals also open the ice for more open play, which is dangerous against a team that struggles to match pace. Given USA’s offensive firepower and Latvia’s goaltending reliance for saves, this total leans heavily toward the over.

Caesars

4.4/5

Prediction: USA Total Goals Over 3.5

• Depth Scoring
• Offensive Volume
• Weak Defensive Matchup

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Prop Bet #4: Both Teams to Score in the 1st Period

Despite the talent gap, Latvia will not simply drop its sticks early. Underdog teams often deploy aggressive forechecks in the first period to disrupt favorites’ rhythm — and against a balanced offensive group like Team USA, that pressure can pay dividends.

Meanwhile, USA will look to assert itself early, pushing shots into the net to dictate momentum. In such opening exchanges, more than one team scoring in the first period becomes a live script — USA pushes ahead, Latvia finds a transitional equalizer or power play conversion, and the game opens up before defense sets in. Both teams scoring early also reflects the fast pace expected from Olympic hockey.

FanDuel

4.6/5

Prediction: Both Teams to Score in the 1st Period

• Aggressive Starts
• Transitional Opportunities
• Underdog Fightback Potential

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The Verdict

Prediction: USA 5, Latvia 2

Team USA’s star power carries the day. Expect early domination from Matthews and company, with Merzlikins standing tall but ultimately outpaced by U.S. offensive depth. Latvia’s experience and goaltending make this more competitive than a blowout, but the Americans’ balanced scoring and elite talent tilt this one decisively.