As a sports bettor, it’s natural to always seek strategies to help you make the most from your predictions. In that aspect, value betting is one of the best techniques out there, and I will tell you all about it.
Some bettors skip using the strategy because they find it somewhat complex and research-intensive. However, it doesn’t have to be. In this post, I’ll break down everything about value betting in simple terms. You’ll learn how it works, useful tips, and the upsides and drawbacks of using the technique. Read on to get all the details.
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What is Value Betting all about?
Value betting involves identifying opportunities where the odds offered by a sportsbook are higher than the actual probability of the event occurring. Does it sound too technical? I’ll make it simpler.
Consider a football game where one team has a clear upper hand. Typically, the team will get much lower odds compared to the underdogs. However, there are situations where the sportsbook mistakenly assigns equal odds or gives the stronger side higher. You make a value bet by wagering on the stronger team and taking advantage of the sportsbook’s miscalculations.
I’m sure the entire concept is more straightforward to grasp now. However, I must clarify that
finding the value
isn’t always straightforward. Most of the time, it takes days of research for me to identify such a pick. Nevertheless, if you get it right and your stake wins, you can grab yourself a nice payout. But beware that there is no guarantee for a payout.
How Value Betting works in practice
Based on my experience, some bettors confuse value and arbitrage betting. I get this question often:
Does arbitrage betting work
the same way as value betting? My answer is always “No” since both techniques are indeed different.
Arbitrage involves placing simultaneous bets on all possible outcomes, such that you’ll score a win regardless of the result. With the value bet strategy, you’re only placing one bet. To make things much simpler, I’ve outlined a step-by-step guide on how to go about value betting below:
Step 1: Understand the odds
You should know already that odds show how likely a sportsbook thinks an event will happen. For example, if a team has 2.50 as odds, the betting site believes they have a 40% chance of winning. So, the first thing to do is to check the odds and know where the sportsbooks stand.
This is where you begin looking for the value bet. Basically, the target here is to carry out your own research to confirm if the sportsbook’s odds truly capture the chance of the team. In my case, I usually look at stats, recent performances, and other vital statistics. From these, you can decide the probability of the event happening.
Step 3: Compare the probability
So, at this point, you know the actual chance of a team winning based on your research and the sportsbook’s probability. What you have to do now is compare both and spot the difference. Of course, if your researched probability is higher than that of the betting site, you’ve found a value bet.
Step 4: Calculate expected value
I’m a fan of math, so this step is one of my favorites. After spotting the difference in Step 3, you can calculate the expected value to know if the wager is worth placing. The formula is pretty simple, and here’s it:
Expected Value = (Your Probability x Sportsbook’s Odds) — (1 — Your Probability)
If you get a positive EV result, you can go ahead and place the bet. I also use this expected valid approach when evaluating my
hedge bets, and it’s always effective.
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Top 7 Expert Value Betting Tips
Now, you know what a value bet is and the steps to find one. Next, I’ll share some of my best tips for leveraging this advanced technique. Check them out below:
1. Know the basics
This involves what I explained earlier — understanding the odds, researching, and getting the expected value. Before you can apply any other tip, you must learn how to convert odds into implied probabilities and compare them with your probability estimates. The good news is that there are many free online tools to help with this.
2. Be thorough with your research
I actually can’t emphasize this enough. The success of your value betting efforts heavily depends on how extensive and efficient your research is. Without accurate analysis, you won’t get the actual probability to compare with the sportsbooks’ odds.
3. Compare betting sites
Sportsbooks mainly offer different odds, even though the variance may not be highly significant. The fact is, even the tiniest distinction in betting rates can be crucial when making a value bet. So, I advise comparing odds across multiple platforms to find the best value for your bet. I am biased towards
PayPal betting sites
since I use the payment method a lot. All the same, I still check the rates offered on each to ensure I’m getting optimal value.
4. Use betting models
Who says you have to calculate probabilities and expected values manually? It’s good to know how to do them, but manual computation can slow things down when you’re looking to make multiple picks. That’s why I bank a lot on technology — betting models and software — when crafting my value bet strategies. You should, too.
5. Manage your bankroll
The fact that value betting gives you an advantage doesn’t mean you should stake heavy amounts. From my experience, you have a higher chance of getting better results over time if you use
bankroll management
techniques to determine the size of your stakes. That way, you can place the most optimal bet based on potential winnings and risk.
Here are some bankroll management strategies I recommend:
| Strategy | Description |
| Fixed Stake | Bet a fixed amount each time, regardless of the odds or your probability calculations. |
| Percentage of Bankroll | Bet a fixed percentage of your bankroll for each bet. You can adjust the rate based on the bankroll size. |
| Kelly Criterion | Bet a proportion of your bankroll based on the edge and probability of the wager and odds. |
| Unit Betting | Bet in units where one unit is a set percentage of your bankroll. |
6. Check for overround
Sometimes, I come across
false value bets
where the odds are inflated due to the bookmaker’s juice. You’ll also want to check for and avoid such picks. Otherwise, you’ll only be wasting your time, as the expected value will always be low and sometimes negative. Such odds only give you a small edge over time.
7. Keep records
Finally, I recommend maintaining detailed records of your value betting strategy. This includes information on your odds, stake, outcomes, and EV. You should analyze these metrics from time to time to know if you’re on the right track and re-strategize if needed.
Pros and Cons of Value Sports Betting
Before summarizing, I’ll touch on the core advantages and disadvantages of value betting. In my opinion, the strategy can be very reliable since it depends on math and statistical analysis. There’s no bias involved, but also no guarantees. Also, it’s flexible such that you can find value bets on any sport or betting market. In the long run, employing this technique can be profitable, although there is no guarantee for a payout. My position is that the time and effort you need to locate a value bet is the main drawback. Here’s a rundown of the pros and cons below:
Pros & Cons
- Long-term profitability
- Flexible and applicable to different sports
- Based on math and analysis
Conclusion — Get better results with Value Betting today
My ideal definition of value betting is that the technique helps find better odds than the actual probability suggests. As I’ve explained in this guide, the approach offers a chance for profits since you’ll mainly be betting on higher odds. Doing it the right way is an important step, but be cautious as there is no such thing as a guaranteed profit.
No doubt, I agree that it can be time-consuming and somewhat stressful. Nevertheless, with patience and discipline, value betting becomes an intelligent way to improve your results over time at online sportsbooks.
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Value Betting FAQs
👀 What is a value bet?
A value bet is a type of wager where the odds provided by a sportsbook are higher than the actual probability of an outcome occurring. Such a bet can lead to higher payouts if successful.
🔎 What are value betting and arbitrage betting?
The difference is that value bettors aim to find and take advantage of mispriced odds. Meanwhile, arbitrage bettors concentrate on locking in risk-free profits through odds differences.
🧐 Is value bet profitable?
Yes, value bets can be profitable if you carry out accurate research and analysis. However, be careful as a win can never be guaranteed.
❓ How to start value betting?
You can start value betting by carrying out detailed research and analysis. The goal is to find outcomes with a better probability of occurring than betting odds portray. Then, you compare the odds and calculate the expected value before placing your bet.
⚖ Is value betting legal?
Yes, value betting is completely legal and allowed at online sportsbooks. It’s not cheating in any way, as all you’re doing is identifying opportunities where the odds are undervalued.
