UFL Columbus Aviators vs. Birmingham Stallions Prediction & Game Preview

Sunday, May 17, 2026 Time: 1:00 PM ET

Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL

TV: ESPN

Betting Line: Stallions -3.0

Over/Under: 45.5

This UFL Week 8 Sunday matinee brings an intriguing cross-conference showdown to Alabama as the Birmingham Stallions look to defend their home turf against the expansion Columbus Aviators. With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, both teams find themselves in identical 3-4 positions, making this a pivotal swing game for postseason survival.

The hometown Stallions are aiming to establish much-needed consistency at Protective Stadium. Under the guidance of their coaching staff, Birmingham bounced back last weekend with a gritty 21-17 victory over the Dallas Renegades, snapping a rough patch in their season. Built on a foundation of professional championship pedigree, the Stallions rely heavily on a suffocating run defense and an efficient passing attack spearheaded by Dorian Thompson-Robinson. For Birmingham, a win on Sunday secures a tiebreaker advantage over a direct playoff competitor and sets up a clear path toward another late-season run.

The Aviators land in Birmingham looking to reverse their fortunes after a tough road trip. Head coach Ted Ginn Jr.’s expansion squad ran into a buzzsaw last week, dropping a 31-20 decision to the St. Louis Battlehawks. Despite the loss, Columbus remains one of the most dangerous, run-heavy teams in the league, keeping opponents honest with a heavy dose of play-action. With veteran play-caller Todd Haley orchestrating the offense, the Aviators possess the schematic discipline to travel well. If they can control the line of scrimmage early and minimize empty possessions, they have everything required to pull off the road upset.

From a betting perspective, the line holds steady with Birmingham as a field-goal favorite at home. The oddsmakers are projecting a highly tactical, physical matchup where standard situational execution and field position will dictate the winner.

Top 4 Prop Bets

Prop Bet #1: Jalan McClendon Over 165.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: McClendon Over 165.5 Passing Yards

• Volume
• Play-Action
• Target Share

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While Columbus prides itself on a ground-and-pound identity, Birmingham’s elite defensive front specializes in stuffing the run. Expect Haley to lean into the play-action passing game early, allowing McClendon to challenge the Stallions’ secondary downfield and clear this relatively low yardage hurdle.

Prop Bet #2: Dorian Thompson-Robinson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

DraftKings

4.6/5

Tip: DTR Over 1.5 Passing TDs

• Red Zone
• Playmaking
• Value

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Thompson-Robinson’s dynamic dual-threat ability forces defenses to collapse in the red zone. Look for Birmingham to exploit the Aviators’ aggressive linebackers on rollout concepts and quick slants, giving DTR multiple opportunities to find his receivers in the end zone.

Prop Bet #3: Tay Martin Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.5/5

Tip: Martin Over 50.5 Yards

• Primary Target
• Deep Threat
• Mismatch

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Martin has solidified his role as McClendon’s go-to option when the Aviators need a chunk play. Standing as the team’s leading receiver, his ability to win isolated one-on-one matchups on the outside should result in at least one or two massive receptions to smash this line.

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 45.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 45.5

• Defensive Fronts
• Tempo
• Stake Level

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Both teams understand the mathematical weight of this game regarding the playoff standings. Expect a highly disciplined, conservative approach from both sides early on, with an emphasis on ball control, clock management, and relying on top-tier defensive line play to keep the score down.

The Matchup Context: Expansion vs. Championship Pedigree

Birmingham looks to lean on their championship experience to secure back-to-back home wins, while Columbus searches for a landmark franchise road victory to prove they belong in the upper tier of the UFL hierarchy.

Players to Watch

• Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Stallions): The versatile quarterback looking to use his legs and arm to dissect the Columbus defense.

• Jalan McClendon (Aviators): The steady signal-caller tasked with managing the crowd noise and executing in high-pressure situations.

• Tay Martin (Aviators): The explosive perimeter weapon who serves as the engine of the Columbus passing attack.

• Stallions Defensive Front: The defensive line unit responsible for shutting down the Aviators’ potent rushing attack.

The Verdict

Prediction: Stallions 23, Aviators 17

Pick: Stallions -3.0 & Under 45.5

While the Aviators have the physical blueprint to make this an ugly, hard-fought battle, winning in Birmingham late in the season is a tall order for a first-year franchise. The Stallions possess the defensive discipline necessary to slow down Columbus’s preferred running game, forcing McClendon into predictable third-and-long passing situations. Expect Birmingham to make a key defensive stand late in the fourth quarter to seal the victory and cover the narrow margin.