Our Super Bowl 58 MVP Predictions
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers; four years ago, Kansas City claimed its first Lombardi Trophy under Mahomes with a 31-20 win against San Francisco. Both teams look different now, with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey leading the way for San Francisco; can either turn the tide to win this time or will Patrick Mahomes earn Super Bowl MVP honours again?
If it’s not Mahomes or Purdy, who could the MVP be? We know it trends toward the winning Quarterback, but both teams are loaded with skill position players, and both have a stud on defense who can change the game. The Niners have Nick Bosa, and the Chiefs have Chris Jones. Both are capable of taking over a game. Today, we will look at the Super Bowl MVP odds, and we will look at the favorites and the long shots.
Check out our Super Bowl Betting Guide!
Super Bowl 58 Betting Special: Is Brock Purdy about to become a Legend: Chiefs vs 49ers Preview !
How To Read Super Bowl MVP Odds
As people start
betting on Super Bowl
LVIII, it is imperative that they first understand how the odds display and read them. Super Bowl MVP odds will typically appear as a list with odds corresponding to every player considered an MVP candidate; these will reflect the implied probability that the player will win MVP.
Some sportsbooks will provide a long and detailed list with several players available; others may list only key skill positions and defensive contributors while providing an “other” option, including any non-listed player.
Most sportsbooks in North America will list Super Bowl MVP odds in American format:
- Patrick Mahomes +120
- Brock Purdy +225
This means that a $100 bet on Mahomes would have profited 120 (or a $100 dollar bet would win $120), or a $100 bet on Purdy would have profited $225. Read our guide about
how to bet on the Super Bowl
if you need any more help understanding things like this.
Thirty-two quarterbacks have been named Super Bowl MVPs. Running backs and wide receivers have each won MVP eight times, while a defensive player has been named MVP five times, and a special teams player (kick returner) has won the award once.
MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes (+120)
Money has already begun pouring in on the Chiefs, now considered very slight +100 underdogs on the money line. It makes sense, considering Mahomes already won two Super Bowls while the 49ers have struggled during these playoffs. The Niners should have lost to Green Bay and would have lost to Detroit had it not for an amazing second-half collapse by the Lions in the NFC Championship game.
Although Kansas City ML at +100 offers strong value, Mahomes winning MVP at +120 offers even greater opportunity. If Kansas City wins, their star quarterback should undoubtedly receive MVP consideration. Patrick Mahomes won MVP awards during each of their first two Super Bowl victories, and there’s no reason for anything different in 2024, given their roster makeup. Travis Kelce is Kansas City’s only offensive superstar, while there don’t appear to be any notable defensive players that deserve recognition outside of defensive tackle Chris Jones.
The other plus is that I could see this game turning into a shootout, and the Chiefs’ defense is better than the 49ers’, which makes Mahomes a great choice.
Prediction: Patric Mahomes win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +120
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Brock Purdy (+225)
Purdy is a great choice also. In the second half of these playoffs against the Packers and Lions, he showed that high-pressure situations are something he thrives in. Purdy has multiple weapons, which should help him outside. He is a bigger risk because, unlike Mahomes, the 49er’s defence doesn’t run through Purdy, as the run game will probably see him throw the ball less than Mahomes.
Purdy may not yet be elite, but this Super Bowl could raise his status with a big game. If you think the Niners are winning this game, where else to look but Brock Purdy? I could see Purdy throwing for over 250 yards. His winning MVP is not a long shot, and at +225, it’s great value for a Quarterback.
Prediction: Brock Purdy win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +225
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Great Value Bets
Christian McCaffery (+475)
CMC is the best back in the game, and at almost 5-1 odds, this is too good to pass up. He can do it all, and I would suggest laying money on CNC as an anytime touchdown scorer. The Chiefs will not be able to stop him, and I could see him going off in this game for over 100 yards, rushing 50-100 yards receiving, and at least two touchdowns.
I could see the 49ers coming out to establish the run, and if McCaffery gets hot, those 5-1 odds could be headed towards a huge payoff.
Prediction: Christian McCaffery win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +475
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Travis Kelce (+1700)
Remember, the fans carry 20 per cent of the vote, and Kelce is all over; it seems he is in every commercial, and you will have all of the Swifties voting for Travis also. If he has a game with eleven catches like he did in the AFC Championship game he will have a real opportunity to take the MVP award.
Prediction: Travis Kelce win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +1700
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Longshot
Deebo Samuel (+3300)
As for longshot wagers, I suggest Deebo Samuel at +3300 as a longshot play. Purdy may not necessarily win MVP should the 49ers prevail for two reasons – first, because he isn’t Mahomes, and second, because Purdy has plenty of weapons at his disposal, such as Samuel, McCaffrey and George Kittle, who could help create mismatches against the Chiefs defense. Although Mahomes and Chiefs offer greater advantages overall – I believe Deebo Samuel can bring value if placed as longshot plays for Niners fans looking for longshot value.
Prediction: Deebo Samuel win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +3300
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TGT Best Bet
Take Christian McCaffery at +475 to win MVP. There is not a lot of value in betting either question or back. In our opinion, the best bet is McCaffery, who will get a lot of touches on the ground and in the passing game.
Prediction: Christian McCaffery win Super Bowl 58 MVP
- Odds +475
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What Are Super Bowl MVP bets?
The Super Bowl is the biggest sporting event of the year, requiring some big performances on the night, for the team that plans on lifting the Lombardi trophy. It is these big performances that we are interested in when curating our Super Bowl MVP bets.
The Super Bowl MVP is the Most Valuable Player. They are the person that scores the winning touchdown, throws for 300+ yards, forces a last-minute turnover, and, generally, adds to the outcome of the match.
Unlike NFL bets, Super Bowl bets are made on one performance alone, meaning a player has 80 minutes to prove why they are the Super Bowl MVP.
Before you can begin predicting and placing your Super Bowl MVP bets, you’ll need to find yourself a respectable football betting site or download one of the best
football betting apps
around. From here, you can follow our guide below and enjoy piecing together your own Super Bowl MVP bets.
How Is The Super Bowl MVP Determined?
After each Super Bowl is concluded, its MVP is determined by a panel of 16 NFL journalists (writers and broadcasters) and by popular vote, introduced in 2001.
The panel represents 80% of the voting, while fan balloting is 20%. The most consequential player in helping their team succeed will be named Most Valuable Player for Super Bowl 58.
How To Predict The Super Bowl MVP
As with any
Super Bowl betting online, it is important to do your research first. In this section of our Super Bowl MVP bets guide, we look to detail the simplest ways that you can help better predict the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player.
We will start with the basics. Whether it’s
Super Bowl prop bets, moneylines, or predicting the MVP, you need to focus on the facts. A good place to start is by looking back in time and checking out any star player performances throughout the playoffs. From this, you can judge who is able to perform on the big stage. Although not quite as large a moment as the Super Bowl itself, there will still be plenty of pressure that comes from the playoff fixtures.
After you’ve reviewed the past performances of the individuals, it will be a good idea to review the past matchups between the two teams who have successfully made it to the Super Bowl. How have they fared against each other? Are there any glaringly obvious weaknesses and strengths?
Sticking with the facts, we believe it is interesting to note that the majority of Super Bowl MVP winners have been QBs, WRs, or RBs. In fact, on less than 10 occasions have we seen a defensive player be crowned the MVP.
Your Opinion Counts
As with any football betting tips and predictions, nothing is set in stone. This is one of the main reasons that we believe your opinion and understanding of the game matters, too.
Predicting the winner of the Super Bowl is one step you can take in order to better judge the MVP. Generally, the winner of the Super Bowl MVP will come from the winning side, as they will have made a play, or plays, throughout the match that has affected the outcome.
With this in mind, there is no reason that you cannot select a player from the underdogs. If you have been closely following both teams on the run-up to the big game and noticed a gap in the favorite’s secondary, then an underdog wide receiver may well be your best pick. Provided you’ve researched and thought it through!
Top Tips For MVP Betting – Our Best Super Bowl MVP Betting Tips
Join A Credible Sportsbook
Before you can place any Super Bowl MVP bets, you need to find yourself a solid sportsbook that suits you. We present our top choices of
online bookmakers
over on our operator comparisons page. However, bear in mind that who we believe to be the pick of the bunch is based on our preferences alone. If you are after a specific payment method, sports bonus, or an operator that offers a mobile app, you may have to search a little further down our list.
We aren’t bothered how you do it – set notifications, reminders, follow the NFL on social media, or you can check out our latest breaking news article, too. Whichever method you choose to stay up-to-date, make sure you take note when creating those final predictions on the Super Bowl MVP. The last thing you want is to hear the player you’ve chosen in your Super Bowl MVP bets is ruled out through injury!
A simple way to boost your
football odds
is by adding a little bonus to them. Often,
football betting sites
will provide generalized sportsbook bonuses and promotions leading up to matchday. However, just be certain that the terms and conditions confirm that your selected bonus can be utilized across the Super Bowl MVP market. If so, make sure you can responsibly surpass the minimum deposit requirements, know how to unlock the bonus, and give those Super Bowl bets a boost!
Check Out Our Super Bowl MVP Bets, Predictions And Odds
Over at TheGruelingTruth.com, we’ve dedicated a great amount of time in ensuring our readers have the most user-friendly, and favorable, Super Bowl experience going. Our gurus have meticulously scoured through the stats, markets, and news, in the hopes of curating the most favorable Super Bowl bet predictions and tips on the market. By reviewing our
Super Bowl odds
comparisons, you can see just how well your chosen online sportsbook stacks up, too. If you aren’t getting the best bang for your buck, maybe it’s worth a quick switch!
No – we aren’t talking about all those wings you’ve preordered for that Super Bowl Party! We are talking about your deposits. When it comes to placing your Super Bowl MVP bets, we believe that you should not go beyond your usual limits. We appreciate that it is the biggest sporting event on the calendar, but we also care about our readers maintaining healthy habits. If you haven’t already, make sure you check your own circumstances, set yourself a realistic deposit limit, and stay ahead when placing your Super Bowl MVP bets.
How to Place a Super Bowl MVP Bets
While it might not always be easy to win a Super Bowl MVP bet, it’s actually a pretty simple process to make this type of bet. Follow this step by step guide to make your MVP bet for Super Bowl LVIII:
- Go to one of the sportsbooks recommended in the banners of this page
- Create your new customer account by submitting some basic personal information
- Verify your identity by providing some photo ID
- Make your opening deposit with one of the accepted payment methods
- Get your welcome offer
- Navigate to the Super Bowl betting section
- Scroll through the available betting lines to find the MVP bets
- Click on the player who you think will be the Super Bowl LVIII MVP
- Enter your stake in the bet slip
- Submit your bet and watch the action
Previous Super Bowl MVP Winners
It’s often a good idea to look back over previous Super Bowl MVP winners so as to get an idea of who’s most likely to win the award this time around. Here’s a quick overview as to the Super Bowl MVPs since 2000:
| Year |
Player |
Team |
Position |
| 2000 |
Kurt Warner |
St. Louis Rams |
Quarterback |
| 2001 |
Ray Lewis |
Baltimore Ravens |
Linebacker |
| 2002 |
Tom Brady |
New England Patriots |
Quarterback |
| 2003 |
Dexter Jackson |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Safety |
| 2004 |
Tom Brady |
New England Patriots |
Quarterback |
| 2005 |
Deion Branch |
New England Patriots |
Wide receiver |
| 2006 |
Hines Ward |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Wide receiver |
| 2007 |
Peyton Manning |
Indianapolis Colts |
Quarterback |
| 2008 |
Eli Manning |
New York Giants |
Quarterback |
| 2009 |
Santonio Holmes |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
Wide receiver |
| 2010 |
Drew Brees |
New Orleans Saints |
Quarterback |
| 2011 |
Aaron Rodgers |
Green Bay Packers |
Quarterback |
| 2012 |
Eli Manning |
New York Giants |
Quarterback |
| 2013 |
Joe Flacco |
Baltimore Ravens |
Quarterback |
| 2014 |
Malcolm Smith |
Seattle Seahawks |
Linebacker |
| 2015 |
Tom Brady |
New England Patriots |
Quarterback |
| 2016 |
Von Miller |
Denver Broncos |
Linebacker |
| 2017 |
Tom Brady |
New England Patriots |
Quarterback |
| 2018 |
Nick Foles |
Philadelphia Eagles |
Quarterback |
| 2019 |
Julian Edelman |
New England Patriots |
Wide receiver |
| 2020 |
Patrick Mahomes |
Kansas City Chiefs |
Quarterback |
| 2021 |
Tom Brady |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Quarterback |
| 2022 |
Cooper Kupp |
Los Angeles Rams |
Wide receiver |
| 2023 |
Patrick Mahomes |
Kansas City Chiefs |
Quarterback |
Conclusion – Search For The Best Super Bowl MVP Bets At TGT Today
The end of our Super Bowl MVP bets guide is here. Hopefully, you now feel in a better position to make your own Super Bowl MVP bets.
To confirm, Super Bowl MVP bets are made on one single performance. Although it may well be the biggest performance of many players’ careers, only one can be crowned the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player. Although facts and figures play a huge part in the match, take into account if any players have been there before. The nerves of the big day will no doubt get to some! It’s also worth remembering that the majority of past winners have been WRs, QBs, or RBs. Although, perhaps it’s time for a change?
If you are still a little unsure of where to start, head on over to TheGruelingTruth.com. Here, we can offer you a wealth of resources to help boost your Super Bowl experience. Whether it’s operator reviews, bonus comparisons, strategy guides, or if you’re just looking for the best odds on Super Bowl MVP bets or even
Super Bowl prop bets, we’ve got you covered.
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Super Bowl MVP Bets FAQs
💰 Is it worth betting on the Super Bowl MVP?
If you’re wondering whether it’s worth placing any Super Bowl MVP bets, then it sounds like you need to do some research first. Find yourself a reputable sportsbook, unlock a sizable bonus, and check out the best
Super Bowl odds
at TheGruelingTruth.com.
💯 Can I use my bonus on my Super Bowl MVP bets?
In order to find the best bonuses to boost your Super Bowl MVP bets, you need to head to the bonus comparisons page at TheGruelingTruth.com. Here, you’ll see a full rundown of how to use the bonus, what markets it can be used on, how easy it is to redeem, and what our gurus thought of the bonus overall.
🏈 How can I predict the Super Bowl MVP?
Before researching further into who you think this year’s Super Bowl MVP may be, you may want to research whether online sports betting is legal in your state! Due to the varied views across the US, our gurus have created state-specific guides to help keep you in the know. For example, if you are after answers on MI, you should check out our
Super Bowl betting Michigan
review.
