Projecting the Top 5 Rookie Quarterbacks Passing Yards and Touchdowns

Predicting the future!

Author:

Mike Goodpaster

Publish Date:

06/06/2022

Experiences:

The man behind The Grueling Truth - Where Legends Speak

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 24: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) throws the ball during the team's OTA practice, Tuesday, May 24, 2022, in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Passing yards and touchdowns

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1. Kenny Pickett (Pittsburg Steelers): 2,308 yards and 15 touchdowns

2. Matt Corral, Carolina Panthers: 2,231 yards, nine touchdowns

3. Desmond Ridder (Atlant Falcons): 1,879 yards and 11 touchdowns

4. Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans – 91 yards, one touchdown

5. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 50 yards, 0 touchdowns

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The quarterback class of this year was one of the most reprehensible in modern times. Pickett, the No. 1 quarterback, was the only one to make it off the board during the first round. 20 total — none were chosen in the second round. Pickett is the only quarterback here that has a shot to start week one, and I think that even a start somewhere between week five and ten is more plausible with him.

Why is that important? First-round quarterbacks are more likely to be on the field quickly. Between 2011-21, thirty of 37 (81%) quarterbacks in the first round took over as starters before Week 10. 17 (46%) started in Week 1. Check out the top new sites for betting on the NFL.

Pickett could very well be the Steelers starter in Week 1, but veteran Mitch Trubisky has the lead as of now — and Pickett is projected to start eight games in this exercise. His touchdown pass projection and yardage projection rank 19th among first-round quarterbacks in the past decade.

Pickett, Ridder, and Corral are the most likely to see significant rookie-season playing. Ridder, Corral and Pickett are all projected to start around eight games. Willis is unlikely to be on the field behind veteran Ryan Tannehill. This could change if the Titans are eliminated from the playoff race, but that’s unlikely to happen early enough for Willis to get significant playing time.

Although these projections may seem conservative, you must note that only three third-round quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Davis Mills, have passed 1,700 yards and scored six touchdowns over their rookie campaigns.