Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

The Indianpolis Colts travel to Acrisure Stadium on Sunday afternoon for an important AFC matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Both teams enter 2-2, but they arrive in very different ways. Indianapolis has won two straight after beating Houston and Washington, while Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses through its first four games and is coming off a heartbreaking 27-24 defeat at Cleveland.

Pittsburgh enters as a 2.5-point home favorite in what looks like one of the more evenly matched games on the Week 5 schedule.

Game Information

Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026 Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET TV: CBS Venue: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Tickets: As low as $143 Point Spread: Pittsburgh -2.5 Over/Under: 43.5

Pittsburgh has historically dominated the matchup, holding a 28-8 series advantage including postseason games. The Steelers also beat Indianapolis 27-20 in Pittsburgh last season.

Indianapolis: Jonathan Taylor Driving the Offense

The Colts returned to .500 with a convincing 30-13 victory over Washington in London, and Jonathan Taylor was again the centerpiece of the offense.

Taylor rushed 20 times for 95 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 353 rushing yards and six touchdowns through four games.

Quarterback Daniel Jones had a much more uneven afternoon.

Jones threw for only 143 yards and committed two turnovers, but he also scored on a four-yard rushing touchdown that helped Indianapolis pull away in the second half. Through four games, Jones has completed 63.6 percent of his passes for 754 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Colts’ biggest concern is ball security.

Indianapolis enters this matchup with a minus-six turnover differential, and facing T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh’s pass rush is not an ideal matchup for an offense that has already given the ball away too frequently.

Indianapolis will probably try to reduce that pressure by giving Taylor another heavy workload.

Pittsburgh: Rodgers and Metcalf Finding Their Rhythm

Pittsburgh didn’t win at Cleveland, but its offense showed encouraging signs in the second half.

Aaron Rodgers completed 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns, helping Pittsburgh erase a 21-7 deficit and tie the game at 24 late in the fourth quarter. He also threw two interceptions.

Rodgers has thrown for 999 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions through four games.

The biggest development may have been the breakout performance from DK Metcalf.

Metcalf caught five passes for 115 yards, including a 43-yard reception during Pittsburgh’s comeback. He had entered the game with only 98 receiving yards through the Steelers’ first three contests.

Running back Jaylen Warren also had a strong night, rushing for 93 yards on 17 carries and adding 33 receiving yards.

Warren now has 309 rushing yards while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Pittsburgh will also enter this game with a substantial rest advantage after playing Thursday night, while Indianapolis must return from London and prepare for another road game.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

Prop Bet #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

• 95 Yards Last Week
• 353 Yards This Season
• 6 Rush TDs

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Taylor has surpassed 250 rushing yards through his first four games and just produced 95 against Washington.

Indianapolis needs to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush from controlling the game, and the simplest solution is feeding Taylor.

The Steelers are allowing 4.3 yards per rushing attempt, giving Taylor a reasonable path to another productive afternoon.

Prediction: Jonathan Taylor — 88 rushing yards

Prop Bet #2: Aaron Rodgers Over 229.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Rodgers Over 229.5 Passing Yards

• 299 Yards vs Cleveland
• 999 Yards This Season
• 3 TDs Last Game

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Rodgers is averaging nearly 250 passing yards per game and is coming off his best statistical performance of the season.

Indianapolis has allowed 1,105 passing yards through four games, giving up 8.1 yards per attempt.

If Pittsburgh remains aggressive with Metcalf and its tight ends, Rodgers should threaten this number.

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers — 258 passing yards

Prop Bet #3: Jaylen Warren Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Warren Over 64.5 Rushing Yards

• 93 Yards vs Cleveland
• 5.6 Yards Per Carry
• 309 Yards This Season

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Warren has become Pittsburgh’s most consistent rushing weapon.

He averaged 5.5 yards per carry against Cleveland and has produced 309 yards on only 55 carries this season.

Indianapolis has surrendered 524 rushing yards through four games, so Pittsburgh should give Warren plenty of opportunities.

Prediction: Jaylen Warren — 79 rushing yards

Prop Bet #4: DK Metcalf Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Metcalf Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

• 115 Yards Last Week
• 43-Yard Reception
• Rodgers Looking Deep

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Metcalf finally delivered the kind of explosive performance Pittsburgh expected when it acquired him.

His 115 yards against Cleveland more than doubled his season receiving total, and Rodgers repeatedly looked his direction during the fourth-quarter comeback.

The Colts’ secondary has allowed significant passing production, making Metcalf an attractive downfield target again.

Prediction: DK Metcalf — 76 receiving yards

Players to Watch

Jonathan Taylor — Indianapolis

Taylor has six rushing touchdowns already and remains Indianapolis’ most reliable offensive player. The Colts need him to keep Pittsburgh’s defense from attacking Jones on every down.

Daniel Jones — Indianapolis

Jones has thrown four interceptions against only three touchdowns. Protecting the football is critical against a Steelers defense with playmakers capable of creating short fields.

Aaron Rodgers — Pittsburgh

Rodgers showed against Cleveland that he can still engineer a late comeback. He’ll look to exploit an Indianapolis secondary allowing more than 275 passing yards per game.

T.J. Watt — Pittsburgh

Watt recorded a sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery and two quarterback hits against Cleveland.

Keys to the Game

Indianapolis must establish Taylor and keep Jones out of obvious passing situations. Pittsburgh has already generated 13 sacks, led by Watt with 4.5.

The Colts also need to eliminate turnovers. A minus-six turnover differential is especially dangerous on the road.

Pittsburgh needs to attack Indianapolis’ secondary with Metcalf while continuing to give Warren enough touches to maintain offensive balance.

The Steelers’ extra rest and Indianapolis’ travel back from London could also become factors late in the game.

Betting Prediction

This matchup should be close.

Indianapolis has the better momentum after consecutive wins, while Pittsburgh owns the home-field advantage and has had additional preparation time.

The biggest matchup edge belongs to Pittsburgh’s passing game against the Colts’ secondary.

Taylor keeps Indianapolis competitive, but Jones’ turnover problems combined with Pittsburgh’s pass rush make the Steelers the stronger side.

The 43.5 total looks slightly low if Rodgers continues attacking downfield.

The Verdict

Indianapolis controls portions of the game with Taylor, but Pittsburgh’s defense creates a crucial turnover in the second half.

Rodgers hits Metcalf for several explosive plays, Warren provides balance and the Steelers rebound from their disappointing loss in Cleveland.

Final Score Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Indianapolis Colts 20

Betting Category Pick Best Bet Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards Against the Spread Pittsburgh -2.5 Moneyline Pittsburgh Over/Under Over 43.5 Top Prop DK Metcalf Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

Final Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Indianapolis 20

Pittsburgh improves to 3-2, covers the 2.5-point spread and uses its defensive pressure and home-field advantage to hand Indianapolis its third loss of the season.