Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Sunday, September 20, 2026 Time: 1:00 PM ET Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts TV: CBS Tickets: As low as $189 Line: New England -5.5 Over/Under: 41.5

The 1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers visit the 0-1 New England Patriots Sunday afternoon in a matchup featuring two teams whose defenses made strong first impressions in Week 1.

Pittsburgh opened the Mike McCarthy era with a 20-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in his Steelers debut. Michael Pittman Jr. led Pittsburgh with 58 receiving yards, while Pat Freiermuth caught five passes for 46 yards and a touchdown.

The biggest performance came from T.J. Watt. The Steelers superstar recorded two sacks, three tackles for loss and a 35-yard interception return for a touchdown, helping Pittsburgh hold Atlanta to only 238 total yards.

New England opened its season with a 13-10 road loss to Seattle after taking an early 10-0 lead. Drake Maye completed 23 of 33 passes for 178 yards and one touchdown but threw three interceptions, including interceptions on his final three possessions. He did provide additional offense with his legs, rushing seven times for 47 yards.

The Patriots generated 277 total yards while limiting Seattle to 285, but New England’s minus-three turnover differential was ultimately too much to overcome.

New England will also be without one of Maye’s most important weapons. Wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to miss multiple weeks with a high-ankle sprain suffered in the opener.

The supplied betting line is right in line with the current market: New England is listed as approximately a 5.5-point favorite, while the total has dropped from an opener around 43.5 to 41.5 points at some sportsbooks.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props vary by sportsbook. The numbers below are projected betting targets unless your book offers them.

Prop Bet #1: T.J. Watt Over 0.5 Sacks

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Watt Over 0.5 Sacks

• Two Sacks Week 1
• Patriots Allowed Three Sacks
• Maye Under Pressure

New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES

Get bonus now

Watt looked dominant in Pittsburgh’s opener.

He finished with two sacks, three tackles for loss and an interception returned for a touchdown, and Pittsburgh’s defense generated four sacks overall against Atlanta.

New England allowed Maye to be sacked three times against Seattle.

The Patriots also have to account for Alex Highsmith, Cameron Heyward and the rest of Pittsburgh’s front, which makes consistently double-teaming Watt difficult.

Maye’s mobility can help him escape pressure, but Pittsburgh should create enough obvious passing situations for Watt to get opportunities off the edge.

Projected Bet: T.J. Watt Over 0.5 Sacks

Prop Bet #2: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions

• Five Catches Week 1
• Touchdown vs Atlanta
• Reliable Rodgers Target

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days

Get bonus now

Freiermuth immediately established himself as an important part of Rodgers’ passing game.

He caught five passes for 46 yards and Pittsburgh’s only offensive touchdown against Atlanta.

Rodgers attempted 40 passes in Week 1, and Freiermuth’s ability to work underneath could be particularly valuable against a New England secondary capable of making life difficult for Pittsburgh’s outside receivers.

With DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. demanding attention outside, Freiermuth should continue to find opportunities between the numbers.

Projected Bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions

Prop Bet #3: Drake Maye Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Maye Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

• 47 Rushing Yards Week 1
• Seven Carries
• Pittsburgh Pass Rush

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

–

Maye’s rushing ability could be extremely important against Pittsburgh’s defensive front.

He carried seven times for 47 yards against Seattle, averaging 6.7 yards per attempt.

Pittsburgh recorded four sacks in Week 1, including two from Watt and two from Highsmith.

If New England’s protection breaks down, Maye may have to escape the pocket frequently.

Designed quarterback runs are also an option for a Patriots offense that may need Maye to create additional production without Brown available.

Projected Bet: Drake Maye Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Under 41.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 41.5 Points

• Steelers Won 20-13
• Patriots Lost 13-10
• Two Strong Defenses

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

Week 1 gave bettors plenty of reasons to consider another low-scoring game.

Pittsburgh’s opener produced only 33 total points, while New England’s game against Seattle produced just 23.

The Steelers surrendered only 238 yards and 13 points to Atlanta. New England allowed only 285 yards and 13 points against Seattle.

Neither offense was particularly explosive.

Pittsburgh generated 264 total yards and only 58 rushing yards, while New England managed 277 total yards and scored just one touchdown.

With both defenses capable of generating pressure and New England missing Brown, sustained touchdown drives could be difficult to produce.

Bet: Under 41.5 Points

Players to Watch

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh: Completed 24 of 40 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in his Steelers debut. His ability to protect the football could become especially important in what projects as a defensive matchup.

T.J. Watt, LB, Pittsburgh: Produced two sacks, three tackles for loss and a pick-six against Atlanta. He was the defining player in Pittsburgh’s Week 1 victory.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh: Caught five passes for 46 yards and a touchdown and looks capable of becoming one of Rodgers’ favorite possession targets.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh: Finished with four catches for 40 yards against Atlanta. Pittsburgh will look for more explosive production after Metcalf was targeted frequently but held without a catch longer than 14 yards.

Drake Maye, QB, New England: Completed 69.7% of his passes against Seattle but threw three interceptions. Maye also rushed for 47 yards, showing the dual-threat ability that could be crucial against Pittsburgh’s pass rush.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England: Led the Patriots with 51 rushing yards on 18 carries and added five receptions for 44 yards, giving him 95 yards from scrimmage in the opener.

Keys to the Game

Pittsburgh

The Steelers need to make Maye uncomfortable.

Pittsburgh generated four sacks and two interceptions against Atlanta and now faces a quarterback coming off a three-interception performance.

Watt is the obvious centerpiece, but Highsmith and Heyward give Pittsburgh multiple ways to disrupt New England’s protection.

The Steelers cannot simply chase Maye, however. His 47 rushing yards against Seattle showed how dangerous he can become when plays break down.

Offensively, Pittsburgh needs more balance.

The Steelers rushed for only 58 yards on 21 attempts against Atlanta. Jaylen Warren was the most effective option with 46 yards on 10 carries, while Rico Dowdle produced only 15 yards on eight attempts.

Rodgers shouldn’t have to throw 40 times every week. Establishing Warren would make Pittsburgh considerably more difficult to defend.

New England

Protect the football.

That is easily the Patriots’ biggest priority.

New England’s defense played well enough to win against Seattle, but three Maye interceptions gave the Seahawks too many opportunities.

The Patriots finished Week 1 at minus-three in turnover differential, while Pittsburgh finished plus-one.

Maye cannot give Watt and the Steelers defense short fields.

New England should also emphasize Stevenson and Maye as runners.

Pittsburgh allowed Bijan Robinson to generate 173 yards from scrimmage, including 83 rushing and 90 receiving.

Without Brown, New England may need to manufacture offense through its running backs, tight ends and Maye’s legs rather than relying on explosive outside passing plays.

Betting Prediction

The 5.5-point spread is difficult to ignore considering how close these teams appear defensively.

New England has home-field advantage and enters as the favorite, but Pittsburgh showed in Week 1 that its defense can completely change a game.

The matchup between Maye and Pittsburgh’s pass rush is the biggest factor.

Maye has the talent and athleticism to make plays outside the pocket, but his three interceptions against Seattle raise concerns when he’s forced to operate under pressure.

Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t spectacular against Atlanta, either.

Rodgers threw for 221 yards, but the Steelers produced only 264 total yards and averaged 2.8 yards per rushing attempt.

That makes laying more than a field goal with either team uncomfortable.

The strongest betting angle may be the total.

Both Week 1 games finished comfortably below 41.5 points, both defenses performed well, and New England will be without its top offseason addition at receiver.

Expect field position, turnovers and defensive pressure to determine the outcome.

The Verdict

This has the ingredients of an old-fashioned defensive game.

Rodgers has been in these situations countless times, and his ability to avoid turnovers gives Pittsburgh an important advantage. Maye is more dangerous as a runner, but Watt and Pittsburgh’s front should force him into several difficult decisions.

New England’s defense keeps the Patriots in the game throughout the afternoon, and the home crowd at Gillette Stadium prevents Pittsburgh from pulling away.

But asking New England to win by nearly a touchdown looks aggressive after an opener in which the Patriots scored only 10 points and lost Brown to injury.

Pittsburgh hangs around into the fourth quarter, Watt creates another game-changing defensive play, and Rodgers engineers the late scoring drive that decides it.

Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New England Patriots 17

Best Bet: Under 41.5

Against the Spread: Pittsburgh +5.5

Moneyline: Pittsburgh

Top Player Prop: T.J. Watt Over 0.5 Sacks

Additional Props: Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions | Drake Maye Over 34.5 Rushing Yards