Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

NFL action returns to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon when the Miami Dolphins travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts in an important AFC matchup.

Miami enters 1-7 following a 19-9 loss to the Detroit Lions, while Indianapolis stands at 2-7 after suffering a 27-23 defeat against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Colts enter as 3.5-point home favorites behind quarterback Daniel Jones, running back Jonathan Taylor and receiver Josh Downs. Miami counters with running back Ollie Gordon II, receiver Malik Washington and quarterback Kyle McCord, who is expected to make his first NFL start.

With both teams attempting to end disappointing losing streaks, Sunday’s contest offers an opportunity to build momentum.

Game Information

• Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
• Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
• Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
• TV: CBS
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, Indiana
• Tickets: As low as $26
• Records: Miami 1-7 | Indianapolis 2-7
• Point Spread: Indianapolis -3.5
• Over/Under: 38.5

Indianapolis must win by at least four points to cover the 3.5-point spread. Miami +3.5 covers with a victory or a loss by three points or fewer.

The 38.5 total requires at least 39 combined points for an over wager to win.

Miami: Dolphins Facing Quarterback Uncertainty

Miami enters Sunday struggling offensively, averaging just 15.8 points and 282.3 total yards per game.

Starting quarterback Malik Willis has been placed on injured reserve with a core muscle injury, leaving Kyle McCord positioned to make his first NFL start.

Willis threw for 1,396 yards and six touchdowns before his injury, but Miami’s passing game has struggled with consistency.

Running back Ollie Gordon II leads the Dolphins with 463 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Receiver Malik Washington has accumulated 350 receiving yards, providing McCord with an important target.

Defensively, Miami allows 25 points and approximately 326 yards per contest.

The Dolphins must establish Gordon early, protect their inexperienced quarterback and avoid turnovers against Indianapolis.

Indianapolis: Colts Looking to End Losing Streak

Indianapolis enters Sunday attempting to end a five-game losing streak.

Quarterback Daniel Jones has thrown for 1,722 yards and six touchdowns but has also committed 10 interceptions.

Running back Jonathan Taylor remains Indianapolis’ most dependable offensive weapon, accumulating 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

Receiver Josh Downs leads the team with 354 receiving yards, while rookie tight end Tyler Warren provides another important passing option.

Indianapolis averages 288.9 total yards and 20.4 points per game.

However, the Colts have struggled defensively, allowing 27.7 points and approximately 362 yards per contest.

Indianapolis must protect Jones, establish Taylor and exploit Miami’s offensive uncertainty.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

These are suggested betting targets, not verified sportsbook player-prop lines. Confirm player availability, current odds and lines before wagering.

Prop Bet #1: Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

• 656 Season Rushing Yards
• 8 Touchdowns
• Indianapolis Leading Rusher

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Taylor remains Indianapolis’ most productive offensive weapon.

Miami allows approximately 112 rushing yards per game, providing opportunities for the Colts to establish their ground attack.

Expect Indianapolis to emphasize Taylor while limiting Jones’ passing attempts.

Prediction: Jonathan Taylor — 86 rushing yards

Prop Bet #2: Ollie Gordon II Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Gordon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards

• 463 Season Rushing Yards
• 4 Touchdowns
• Colts Allow 137 Rushing Yards Per Game

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Gordon faces a favorable matchup against an Indianapolis defense allowing approximately 137 rushing yards per contest.

With McCord making his first start, Miami should emphasize its running game to reduce pressure on the quarterback.

Prediction: Ollie Gordon II — 72 rushing yards

Prop Bet #3: Josh Downs Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Downs Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

• 354 Season Receiving Yards
• 33 Receptions
• Indianapolis Leading Receiver

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Downs remains one of Jones’ most dependable receiving options.

Miami allows approximately 214 passing yards per game, creating opportunities for Indianapolis to attack underneath coverage.

Prediction: Josh Downs — 57 receiving yards

Prop Bet #4: Malik Washington Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Washington Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

• 350 Season Receiving Yards
• 33 Receptions
• Miami Leading Receiver

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Washington could become a valuable security blanket for McCord.

Indianapolis allows approximately 225 passing yards per game, providing opportunities for short and intermediate completions.

Prediction: Malik Washington — 48 receiving yards

Players to Watch

Jonathan Taylor — Indianapolis: His rushing production could determine whether the Colts control possession.

Daniel Jones — Indianapolis: His decision-making and ability to avoid interceptions will be critical.

Ollie Gordon II — Miami: Establishing the rushing attack should help Miami protect McCord.

Kyle McCord — Miami: His performance in his expected first NFL start will be central to the Dolphins’ chances.

Keys to the Game

Indianapolis must establish Taylor, protect Jones and force McCord into difficult passing situations.

Miami must establish Gordon, avoid turnovers and prevent Indianapolis from controlling possession.

Third-down efficiency, field position and red-zone execution could determine the outcome.

Betting Prediction

Indianapolis -3.5 presents an attractive opportunity considering the Colts’ home-field advantage and Miami’s quarterback uncertainty.

However, Indianapolis’ defensive struggles could allow Miami to remain competitive.

The 38.5 total deserves particular consideration.

Miami averages just 15.8 points per game, while Indianapolis averages 20.4.

Both teams have struggled to generate consistent offensive production.

Best Bet: Under 38.5

The Verdict

Miami’s best opportunity comes through Gordon establishing the running game and McCord avoiding costly mistakes.

However, Indianapolis possesses the more experienced quarterback and a significant advantage at running back.

Expect Taylor to generate productive rushing opportunities while Jones connects with Downs and Warren.

Miami remains competitive early, but Indianapolis’ offensive balance eventually proves decisive.

Final Score Prediction

Indianapolis Colts 23, Miami Dolphins 13

Picks Summary

Betting Category Pick Best Bet Under 38.5 Against the Spread Indianapolis -3.5 Moneyline Indianapolis Over/Under Under 38.5Top Prop Jonathan Taylor Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

Final Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Miami 13

Indianapolis wins by 10 points, covering the 3.5-point spread. The projected 36 combined points finish under the 38.5 total.

The Colts improve to 3-7, while Miami falls to 1-8.

Indianapolis ends its losing streak with an important home victory at Lucas Oil Stadium.