The NFL Combine: Predictor of Success or a Fancy Workout? 

At the end of February or the start of March, NFL scouts, coaches, and General Managers focus on Indiana for the annual NFL Scouting Combine, held at Lucus Oil Stadium. It’s a week for young athletes to show off their prowess by taking part in physical and mental tests. The goal is to gain enough attention to improve their prospects for the NFL Draft in April.

Each year, we hear talk of poor performances from supposed standout college athletes as well as surprisingly triumphant showings. Each man is looking to impress and solidify his NFL career prospects. Depending on the outcome, a player entering the NFL Draft can either shine a brighter spotlight on himself or tarnish his draft stock.

Combine Events

The various drills that players take part in gauge specific abilities

40-Yard Dash- Acceleration and speed

Bench Press of 225 Pounds- Upper body strength

Vertical Jump- Lower body power

Broad Jump- Horizontal lower body power

20-Yard Shuttle- Lateral quickness and acceleration

3 Cone Drill- Change of direction, speed, and agility

60-Yard Shuttle- Endurance and agility

Position Specific Drills

 Medical Evaluations

Teams will be cautious regarding the health and fitness of players who could potentially join their organization.

Physical Examination- Screening to determine any health-related problems

Injury Evaluations- X-rays, MRIs, and other tests to look for injuries and see if previous issues are resolved.

Drug Screening- Urine tests for banned substances

Functional Movement Screening- Looks at physical capabilities and potential for injury.

Cybex Test- Helps determine players’ flexibility and joint stability.

Mental and Cognitive Evaluations

Wonderlic Cognitive Ability Test- A 12-minute, 50-question test which measures cognitive aptitude, problem-solving, and intelligence.

Specialized Cognitive Tests, also known as Player Assessment Test: These tests are comprehensive assessments used to predict on-field performance, examine behavioral composition, check coachability, and gauge a player’s reaction to adversity.

“Football IQ” Assessment: A player’s emotional control, ability to handle pressure, and understanding of game scenarios are tested along with their overall mental toughness.

Subjective Assessment- As players participate in physical drills, team experts subjectively observe mental alertness, focus, and “football intelligence” in real time.

Individual Interviews – Teams can invite 60 players for15-minute interviews. Often, scouts, coaches, or General Managers will use this brief time to determine if a player is the right “fit” for the team.

This battery of tests can directly impact a player’s future. Poor combine performances have dropped players’ value, or draft stock, while players who show surprising abilities become more sought after.

Since the NFL Scouting Combine began in 1982, it has grown in scope and importance. What began as a gathering to examine players medically became an event that team personnel rely upon when making multi-million-dollar decisions. But can isolated events that have little resemblance to the game of football, held under great scrutiny, really predict a player’s future success?

Decision-makers for NFL teams seem to believe that excelling at the combine points to future success, and that the converse is also true.

However, a number of studies show this is flawed logic. One such study, from the University of Houston-Victoria’s College of Education and Health Professions, says otherwise.

Researchers looked into performance metrics used at the NFL Scouting Combine. They found that the events and examinations are useful for measuring players’ athletic skills. Combine events do not provide a clear indication of an athlete’s ability to play football. In fact, research suggests that these methods do not demonstrate whether player performance at the NFL Combine is directly related to prospective draftees’ ability to play football.

The NFL Scouting Combine may not accurately predict players’ success in the NFL. However, as long as it remains the gold standard, it will continue to influence draft picks and help determine young men’s futures, right or wrong.