Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Sunday, September 13, 2026 Time: 1:00 PM ET Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio TV: FOX Tickets: As low as $139 Line: Cincinnati -3.5 Moneyline: Cincinnati -205 / Tampa Bay +171 Over/Under: 50.5

Two veteran quarterbacks headline an intriguing Week 1 matchup as Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Both teams enter 0-0, but Cincinnati has spent the offseason trying to fix the weakness that derailed recent seasons: defense. The Bengals added Dexter Lawrence II, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook, giving defensive coordinator Al Golden a dramatically upgraded unit around an offense that still features Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown.

Tampa Bay is also adjusting. Mike Evans is gone, leaving Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan as Mayfield’s primary receivers. Egbuka and McMillan have dealt with injuries, although both returned to practice Monday and were trending toward availability.

The current market matches the supplied numbers: Cincinnati -3.5 with a 50.5 total, while the Bengals sit around -205 on the moneyline.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props vary by sportsbook. The numbers below are projected betting targets unless your book offers them.

Prop Bet #1: Joe Burrow Over 279.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Burrow Over 279.5 Passing Yards

• Elite Passing Attack
• Tampa Ranked 27th vs Pass
• Chase and Higgins

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Burrow played only eight games in 2025 but still threw 17 touchdowns against five interceptions with a 100.7 passer rating.

Tampa Bay’s pass defense finished 27th last season and surrendered 4,332 net passing yards. The Buccaneers also ranked last in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed at 69.8%.

With Chase and Higgins available, this is an excellent matchup for Cincinnati to attack through the air.

Projected Bet: Joe Burrow Over 279.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Ja’Marr Chase Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Chase Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

• 1,412 Yards in 2025
• Elite YAC Production
• Tampa Secondary Matchup

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Chase caught 125 passes for 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025 despite Burrow missing half the season.

Even more concerning for Tampa Bay, Chase generated 651 yards after the catch, fourth-most in the NFL.

Cincinnati should aggressively manufacture touches for its best offensive player.

Projected Bet: Ja’Marr Chase Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #3: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

• 26 TDs in 2025
• Excellent History vs Cincinnati
• High Game Total

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Mayfield threw 26 touchdown passes last season despite Tampa Bay’s extensive injury problems.

More importantly, Mayfield has historically played well against Cincinnati. His career passer rating against the Bengals is 115.0, with 21 touchdown passes in eight starts.

Cincinnati’s defensive personnel is improved, but Tampa has enough weapons to score multiple passing touchdowns.

Projected Bet: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Prop Bet #4: Over 50.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 50.5 Points

• Burrow vs Mayfield
• Elite Cincinnati Weapons
• Tampa Pass Defense Questions

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The Bengals still have one of football’s most dangerous passing combinations with Burrow, Chase and Higgins.

Tampa Bay counters with Mayfield, Godwin, Egbuka and Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers’ offense produced 41 touchdowns last season despite numerous injuries, while Cincinnati’s defense allowed 60 total touchdowns.

Cincinnati’s offseason defensive upgrades matter, but 50.5 is reachable if both quarterbacks produce.

Bet: Over 50.5 Points

Players to Watch

Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals: Healthy entering the opener and still the key to Cincinnati’s championship hopes.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals: Coming off 125 receptions and 1,412 yards.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals: Rushed for 1,019 yards and six touchdowns in 2025.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers: Finished last season with 3,693 yards and 26 touchdowns.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers: Led Tampa Bay with 938 receiving yards and six touchdowns as a rookie.

Dexter Lawrence II, DT, Bengals: The three-time Pro Bowler is the centerpiece of Cincinnati’s rebuilt defensive front.

Keys to the Game

Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers need to protect Mayfield against Cincinnati’s rebuilt front and establish Irving enough to prevent the Bengals from attacking exclusively through the pass rush.

Defensively, limiting Chase’s yards after the catch is critical.

Cincinnati

Burrow needs to exploit Tampa Bay’s secondary early.

Defensively, Lawrence and Jonathan Allen must control the interior while Mafe generates pressure from the edge. If Cincinnati’s expensive defensive overhaul works immediately, the Bengals become much more difficult to beat.

Betting Prediction

The Bengals have the offensive advantage and home field, while their biggest weakness from 2025 received major offseason investment.

Tampa Bay should score enough to remain competitive. Mayfield has traditionally performed well against Cincinnati, and the Buccaneers still have several dangerous weapons.

But Burrow throwing against Tampa Bay’s secondary is the matchup that ultimately decides the game.

The Verdict

Expect an entertaining opener with both quarterbacks producing multiple touchdowns.

Tampa Bay keeps the pressure on into the fourth quarter, but Burrow and Chase connect on one late scoring drive before Cincinnati’s revamped defense gets the stop it needs.

Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 30, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3.5

Total Pick: Over 50.5

Moneyline: Cincinnati -205

Top Player Prop: Ja’Marr Chase Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

Additional Props: Joe Burrow Over 279.5 Passing Yards | Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns