Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills 2026 Preseason Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

TV: NFL Network / WIVB Buffalo / KDKA-TV Pittsburgh

Tickets: As low as $51

Betting Line: Buffalo Bills -3*

Moneyline: Buffalo approximately -145 to -150 / Pittsburgh approximately +125

Over/Under: 35.5 Points

Betting note: Buffalo -3 is the supplied line for this preview and is available at some sportsbooks, while other books have ranged from Bills -1.5 to -2.5. The total has remained much more stable at 35.5. Verify the live spread before wagering.

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Orchard Park Thursday night to face the Buffalo Bills in the final preseason game for both teams, and the circumstances couldn’t be much more different than Pittsburgh’s last visit to the field.

The Steelers are coming off a 17-0 loss to the New York Jets in which neither Will Howard nor Drew Allar could generate a scoring drive. Howard completed 10 of 15 passes for 74 yards but threw two interceptions, while Allar went 11-of-23 for 110 yards. Pittsburgh finished with 242 total yards but never reached the scoreboard.

Buffalo enters 2-0 and has been one of the NFL’s most impressive preseason teams.

The Bills beat Carolina 29-14 in Week 1 and then demolished Cleveland 31-7 last Saturday. Buffalo has outscored its first two opponents 60-21, while its defense is allowing only 197.5 yards per game and 3.62 yards per play.

The biggest development entering Thursday involves Buffalo’s quarterback rotation.

Head coach Joe Brady announced Tuesday that Josh Allen will not play in the preseason finale. Instead, the Bills will continue evaluating Kyle Allen and Shane Buechele, who are competing for the backup quarterback position. Brady confirmed that both quarterbacks will play against Pittsburgh.

That matters because both were excellent against Cleveland.

Kyle Allen completed 10 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown, while Buechele completed five of 10 for 111 yards and a touchdown before adding a five-yard rushing score.

Pittsburgh’s quarterback plan is less settled.

Aaron Rodgers has not appeared in the first two preseason games, while Mason Rudolph played only in the opener. Mike McCarthy dedicated the Jets game entirely to Howard and Allar because he wanted additional evaluation tape on his young quarterbacks. As of Tuesday, Pittsburgh had not publicly laid out a definitive quarterback rotation for Buffalo.

That uncertainty creates the central betting question.

Can Pittsburgh’s young quarterbacks rebound?

Or does Buffalo’s deeper, more productive preseason roster finish August unbeaten?

Top Four Prop Bets

Preseason player props are not offered consistently at every sportsbook. Unless your sportsbook lists the exact number below, these should be treated as projected betting targets based on expected workload, preseason production and roster circumstances. Pittsburgh’s quarterback props should be reevaluated once McCarthy announces the final rotation.

Prop Bet #1: Kyle Allen Over 99.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Kyle Allen Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• 128 Yards vs Cleveland
• QB2 Competition
• Josh Allen Sitting

New DraftKings Customer Offer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES

Get bonus now

Kyle Allen may offer the cleanest player-prop angle in the game.

Josh Allen is officially sitting.

Brady has confirmed that Kyle Allen and Buechele will both play.

And Buffalo still has a legitimate decision to make regarding its No. 2 quarterback.

That means Thursday isn’t simply ceremonial preseason work for Kyle Allen.

It matters.

He helped his case considerably against Cleveland.

Allen completed 83.3 percent of his passes, threw for 128 yards and engineered a four-play, 62-yard touchdown drive in only 47 seconds before halftime.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Workload.

Brady divided the Cleveland game cleanly between Allen and Buechele.

Allen handled the first half.

Buechele handled the second.

If Buffalo uses a similar formula Thursday, Allen should have enough opportunities to reach 100 yards.

He also has significant NFL experience.

Backup quarterbacks with veteran starting experience tend to have an advantage in preseason football because they can recognize reserve defensive looks quickly and keep an offense operating cleanly.

Allen showed that in Cleveland.

The ball came out on time.

He attacked downfield when Maclin created separation.

He used underneath throws when Cleveland took away the vertical route.

That combination produced 128 yards on only 12 attempts.

Why the Under Could Hit

Buffalo could alter the rotation.

If Brady gives each quarterback only a quarter and uses the remainder of the game to protect his roster, Allen may not receive enough attempts.

Buffalo may also lean on the running game.

The Bills have already seen enough from Allen to know he can operate the offense, and preserving healthy offensive linemen becomes important days before roster cuts.

Pittsburgh’s defense is another concern.

The Steelers gave up only nine points against Green Bay and 17 against the Jets. Their preseason problems have been more offensive than defensive.

Still, with Josh Allen sitting and the No. 2 job still being evaluated, 100 yards is reachable.

Projected Bet: Kyle Allen Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Ja’Mori Maclin Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Maclin Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

• 108 Yards vs Cleveland
• Elite Big-Play Ability
• Roster Spot Opportunity

New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days

Get bonus now

Ja’Mori Maclin may have produced the most explosive receiving performance of Preseason Week 2.

Two catches.

108 yards.

One touchdown.

That is extraordinary efficiency.

One reception came on a 37-yard deep ball from Kyle Allen.

The other became a 71-yard touchdown from Buechele, with Maclin using his speed to turn the catch into one of Buffalo’s biggest preseason plays.

Now he gets one final opportunity to strengthen his case for a roster position.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Maclin has demonstrated that he doesn’t need volume.

He had three targets against Cleveland.

He turned two into 108 yards.

That makes a projected number around 35 extremely interesting.

One explosive reception gets him close.

Buffalo’s quarterback situation also works in his favor.

He has already made plays with both Allen and Buechele.

That matters because preseason receivers can sometimes disappear once the quarterback changes.

Maclin has shown chemistry with both.

Buffalo has also dealt with injuries throughout its receiver room, creating opportunities for players such as Maclin, Trent Sherfield and Skyler Bell to earn meaningful evaluation snaps.

Why the Under Could Hit

Buffalo already has valuable film on Maclin.

His roster stock may have risen enough that Brady doesn’t need to leave him on the field for four quarters.

The Bills also have numerous receivers who need opportunities.

Maclin could receive three targets again and simply fail to produce another 71-yard touchdown.

That is the danger of betting on explosive production.

Still, the projected number is low enough to make his big-play ability attractive.

Projected Bet: Ja’Mori Maclin Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #3: Drew Allar Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Allar Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• 110+ Yards Both Games
• 263 Preseason Yards
• Continued Development

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

–

This wager becomes strongest if Pittsburgh confirms that Allar will receive roughly a half or another extended appearance.

Drew Allar has already cleared 100 passing yards in both preseason games.

Against Green Bay:

10-of-13.

153 yards.

Two touchdowns.

Against the Jets:

11-of-23.

110 yards.

No interceptions in either game.

That gives the rookie 263 passing yards and two touchdowns through his first two NFL exhibitions.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

McCarthy has repeatedly emphasized the importance of game repetitions for Allar and Howard.

Rodgers and Rudolph already have years of NFL tape.

Allar doesn’t.

Every live snap matters.

McCarthy specifically said before the Jets game that he wanted to “max out” the opportunities for Pittsburgh’s young quarterbacks and come away with as much evaluation video as possible.

Thursday is Pittsburgh’s last chance to do that before roster decisions and regular-season preparation take over.

Allar also demonstrated his arm talent despite Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles against New York.

He hit tight end Lake McRee on a 38-yard deep ball and still reached 110 yards despite taking three sacks and completing fewer than half his passes.

If his efficiency moves even halfway back toward the Green Bay performance, 100 yards is realistic.

Why the Under Could Hit

The quarterback rotation remains the problem.

McCarthy could decide that Rudolph needs the majority of the finale.

Rodgers could theoretically receive limited work if Pittsburgh wants one final dress rehearsal, although there had been no announcement of that as of Tuesday.

Howard also needs another opportunity after throwing two interceptions against New York.

If Pittsburgh divides the game among three quarterbacks, Allar’s volume becomes dangerous.

Buffalo’s defense presents another issue.

The Bills have allowed fewer than 200 yards per game this preseason and produced multiple takeaways against Cleveland.

Still, if Allar receives close to two quarters, his first two performances support the over.

Projected Bet: Drew Allar Over 99.5 Passing Yards — if he receives extended work

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 35.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 35.5 Points

• Steelers Shut Out in Week 2
• Josh Allen Sitting
• Buffalo Defense Dominating

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Get bonus now

The total is low.

There is no way around that.

A 20-16 game goes over.

A 19-17 game goes over.

But the under still offers the strongest overall betting angle because Pittsburgh’s offense enters with significant questions and Buffalo’s starting quarterback will not play.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Pittsburgh just scored zero points.

The Steelers moved the football at times against New York but repeatedly sabotaged drives with sacks, interceptions and poor execution.

Howard threw two interceptions.

Allar took three sacks.

Pittsburgh rushed for only 98 yards.

The offense never reached the end zone—or even the scoreboard.

Buffalo’s defense has also played exceptionally well.

The Bills have allowed:

14 points against Carolina.

7 points against Cleveland.

Only 197.5 yards per game.

Three takeaways.

Five sacks.

Thirteen tackles for loss.

That production is coming from players throughout the depth chart, which is especially important in a preseason finale.

Buffalo doesn’t need its stars to keep Pittsburgh uncomfortable.

Why the Over Could Hit

Buffalo’s offense has been excellent.

The Bills scored 29 against Carolina and 31 against Cleveland.

Kyle Allen and Buechele combined for 239 passing yards and two passing touchdowns last week. Buechele added another touchdown on the ground.

Maclin is dangerous.

Sherfield has made plays.

Ray Davis has been productive in limited work.

If Buffalo reaches 24 points, Pittsburgh only needs 12 to put the game over.

Defensive turnovers also create problems for an under.

Howard threw two interceptions last week.

A short Buffalo field or defensive touchdown could change the math immediately.

But Josh Allen’s absence reduces Buffalo’s early scoring ceiling, while Pittsburgh still has to prove it can finish drives.

Bet: Under 35.5 Points

The Matchup Context: Buffalo Has Been the Better Preseason Team

Two preseason games don’t tell us what will happen when the regular season begins.

They do tell us something about depth.

Buffalo’s depth has looked excellent.

The Bills beat Carolina by 15.

Then Cleveland by 24.

They have outscored opponents 60-21.

The production has come from different levels of the roster.

Josh Allen and D.J. Moore were excellent in Week 1.

Kyle Allen and Buechele took over in Week 2.

Maclin exploded against Cleveland.

Buffalo’s defense produced interceptions with Damar Hamlin and Te’Cory Couch.

That is exactly what coaches want from the preseason.

Starters look ready.

Backups look capable.

Young players create competition.

Pittsburgh has been much more inconsistent.

The Steelers looked excellent against Green Bay.

Then completely lost their offensive rhythm against New York.

Thursday is Pittsburgh’s last opportunity to enter Week 1 with a better feeling.

Josh Allen Is Done Until the Regular Season

Buffalo doesn’t need to learn anything else about Josh Allen.

He played in the opener against Carolina and looked ready.

Allen completed six of eight passes for 111 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a 156.2 passer rating.

His work with D.J. Moore was particularly encouraging.

Moore caught three passes for 61 yards in Buffalo’s first two offensive possessions, immediately demonstrating why the Bills acquired him.

Then Allen received roughly 50 competitive snaps during Buffalo’s joint practice with Cleveland before sitting out the game.

Brady has now seen enough.

Allen will watch Thursday.

He may even get involved in calling some plays from the sideline.

That turns the entire offensive game over to the backup competition.

Kyle Allen vs. Shane Buechele Becomes the Main Story

Few preseason position battles are cleaner than Buffalo’s QB2 competition.

Kyle Allen brings extensive NFL experience.

Buechele brings familiarity with the roster and has continued developing within the league.

Both played well in Cleveland.

Kyle Allen was efficient.

Buechele was explosive.

Brady has made clear that both will play Thursday.

That makes every possession important.

A third-and-7 completion matters.

A protection adjustment matters.

A red-zone decision matters.

A two-minute drive matters.

These quarterbacks aren’t simply filling preseason time.

They are competing for one of the most important jobs on the roster.

Buffalo’s Offense Has Stayed Productive Without Its Stars

This is the most impressive part of Buffalo’s preseason.

The offense didn’t disappear once Allen sat.

Kyle Allen directed two touchdown drives against Cleveland.

Buechele directed two more.

The Bills finished with 368 yards, averaged 6.5 yards per play and generated 20 first downs.

That depth puts enormous pressure on Pittsburgh.

The Steelers cannot simply survive the first quarter and assume Buffalo’s scoring ability disappears.

It might actually become more dangerous because Allen and Buechele are playing for something.

Ja’Mori Maclin Has Forced Everyone to Notice

Maclin entered camp as an undrafted rookie.

Now he may be forcing his way into Buffalo’s roster conversation.

His 108-yard performance against Cleveland wasn’t built on manufactured short catches.

It was explosive.

Thirty-seven yards from Kyle Allen.

Seventy-one yards from Buechele.

Two different quarterbacks.

Two different deep plays.

Buechele praised Maclin after the game, saying the rookie had been producing throughout camp.

That’s exactly how roster spots are won.

Practice production becomes game production.

Thursday is the final test.

Ray Davis Gives Buffalo Another Reliable Option

Buffalo doesn’t need to overwork its top running backs.

That gives Ray Davis an important role in these games.

Davis has rushed for 42 yards on 10 preseason carries, averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, and scored against Cleveland. He has also caught five passes for 42 yards.

Those aren’t massive totals.

They demonstrate versatility.

Davis can run.

Catch.

Pass protect.

Handle short-yardage situations.

If Buffalo chooses to limit its passing game late Thursday, Davis and the deeper running backs can help shorten the game.

That strengthens the under.

Pittsburgh Needs an Offensive Reset

The difference between Pittsburgh’s first two games is remarkable.

Week 1:

28 points.

Efficient quarterback play.

Four sacks from the defense.

Only six incomplete passes from all Pittsburgh quarterbacks combined.

Week 2:

0 points.

Howard throws two interceptions.

Allar takes three sacks.

No offensive rhythm.

McCarthy described the difference as a decline in detail and execution.

That is what Thursday needs to fix.

The Steelers don’t need 35 points.

They need clean football.

Will Howard Needs a Bounce-Back Performance

Howard’s preseason began extremely well.

Against Green Bay he completed seven of nine passes for 86 yards, helping Pittsburgh’s offense produce one of its strongest stretches of the night.

Then came New York.

Ten completions.

Seventy-four yards.

Two interceptions.

That’s preseason football.

The sample size is tiny.

One poor night can completely distort the numbers.

McCarthy has praised Howard and Allar for their confidence and ability to respond to adversity.

Now Howard needs to prove it in a game.

Thursday is his final opportunity before September.

Drew Allar Has Quietly Produced

Allar’s second game wasn’t pretty.

But look at the overall preseason.

21-of-36 passing.

263 yards.

Two touchdowns.

Zero interceptions.

For a rookie third-round quarterback, that is encouraging.

He needs to eliminate unnecessary sacks.

He admitted after the Jets loss that he passed on some early opportunities and must do a better job taking what the defense gives him.

That self-evaluation matters.

Buffalo’s defense is unlikely to give him many easy explosive plays.

The checkdown may be correct.

The five-yard completion may be correct.

Preseason development isn’t always about throwing deep.

Mason Rudolph Could Still Factor Into the Finale

Rudolph has almost disappeared from the game discussion since Week 1.

That isn’t because he played poorly.

Quite the opposite.

Against Green Bay, Rudolph completed 10 of 11 passes for 93 yards.

McCarthy then sat both Rudolph and Rodgers against the Jets because he wanted maximum work for Howard and Allar.

That creates an interesting Week 3 question.

Does Rudolph need another tune-up before the regular season?

Or has McCarthy already seen enough?

Until Pittsburgh announces the final rotation, projected quarterback props require caution.

Aaron Rodgers Doesn’t Need August Statistics

Rodgers remains Pittsburgh’s regular-season starter.

He also enters his 22nd and final NFL season at age 42.

McCarthy and Rodgers discussed preseason playing time throughout camp, but Rodgers sat the first two games.

Nothing that happens in Buffalo changes his résumé.

The Steelers’ biggest priority is having him healthy for Week 1.

That makes extensive finale action unlikely unless Pittsburgh specifically decides it needs one short dress-rehearsal possession.

Max Iheanachor Gets an Important Opportunity

One Pittsburgh player who does need Thursday is rookie offensive tackle Max Iheanachor.

The first-round pick missed Pittsburgh’s first two preseason games after suffering an upper-body injury on August 6 but returned to practice this week and is preparing to make his preseason debut.

That is significant.

The Steelers need to evaluate their offensive-line depth.

Howard and Allar need better protection than they received against the Jets.

And Iheanachor needs game-speed snaps before the preseason ends.

Few individual Steelers have more to gain Thursday.

Buffalo’s Defense Has Been Outstanding

The Bills haven’t simply been winning because of offense.

Their defense has been excellent.

Against Cleveland:

Two interceptions.

Four forced three-and-outs.

Seven pass breakups.

Five tackles for loss.

Only seven points allowed.

Against Carolina, the defensive front generated four sacks and repeatedly affected the pocket.

That depth is particularly relevant against Pittsburgh.

Howard struggled when pressured against New York.

Allar was sacked three times.

If Buffalo’s second- and third-team pass rushers continue producing, Pittsburgh may struggle to create explosive plays again.

Players to Watch

Kyle Allen, QB, Bills: Allen completed 10 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland and remains locked in a battle for Buffalo’s No. 2 quarterback job.

Shane Buechele, QB, Bills: Buechele produced 111 passing yards, a 71-yard touchdown and a five-yard rushing score against the Browns. Brady has confirmed he will play Thursday.

Ja’Mori Maclin, WR, Bills: Maclin exploded for 108 receiving yards on only two catches and has become one of Buffalo’s most interesting roster-bubble players.

Ray Davis, RB, Bills: Davis scored in Cleveland and gives Buffalo a reliable rushing and receiving option behind its established backs.

Te’Cory Couch, DB, Bills: Couch recorded one of Buffalo’s two interceptions against Cleveland and is part of a deep secondary fighting for roster spots.

Will Howard, QB, Steelers: Howard needs a bounce-back performance after throwing two interceptions and producing only 74 passing yards against New York.

Drew Allar, QB, Steelers: Allar has thrown for at least 110 yards in both preseason games and has yet to throw an interception.

Kaleb Johnson, RB, Steelers: Johnson led Pittsburgh with 39 rushing yards on 10 carries against the Jets and added two receptions for 15 yards.

Lake McRee, TE, Steelers: McRee led Pittsburgh with 46 receiving yards against New York, including an impressive 38-yard completion from Allar.

Max Iheanachor, OT, Steelers: Pittsburgh’s first-round rookie is preparing for his first preseason game after returning from injury.

Keys to the Game

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh’s first priority is simple:

Score.

After being shut out by the Jets, the Steelers need to see their young offense finish drives.

Second, Howard and Allar must protect the football.

Howard’s two interceptions helped destroy Pittsburgh’s opportunity to establish rhythm against New York.

Third, the offensive line must improve.

Allar was sacked three times last week.

That makes Iheanachor’s potential debut particularly important.

Fourth, Pittsburgh needs a stronger running game.

Johnson led the team with only 39 yards against the Jets.

A young quarterback’s best friend is second-and-5.

Finally, the Steelers’ defense needs to prevent Buffalo’s backup quarterbacks from operating comfortably.

Kyle Allen and Buechele both looked excellent against Cleveland.

Pressure must come early.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo’s first priority is completing the QB2 evaluation.

Brady knows Josh Allen is the starter.

Thursday is about determining who should be immediately behind him.

Second, the Bills need to continue creating explosive plays.

Maclin demonstrated exactly how dangerous Buffalo’s reserve receivers can be.

Third, Buffalo’s defensive front needs to attack Pittsburgh’s protection.

The Steelers struggled with pressure against New York.

Fourth, the Bills must continue protecting the football.

Neither Kyle Allen nor Buechele threw an interception against Cleveland.

That clean quarterback play is one reason Buffalo scored 31.

Finally, Buffalo needs its roster-bubble players to understand what Thursday represents.

There is no next preseason game.

Every special-teams snap matters.

Every block matters.

Every tackle matters.

This is the final audition.

Betting Prediction

At Buffalo -3, the Bills are the preferred side.

There are three primary reasons.

First, Buffalo has the clearer quarterback plan.

Josh Allen sits.

Kyle Allen and Buechele play.

Both were excellent last week.

Second, Buffalo’s depth has performed better.

The Bills are 2-0.

They have scored 60 points.

They have surrendered only 21.

Pittsburgh has scored 28 points in one game and zero in the other.

Third, Buffalo is at home.

Preseason home field isn’t worth the same as regular-season home field, but the Bills have already looked comfortable inside the new Highmark Stadium, where they defeated Carolina 29-14 in the opener.

Pittsburgh can absolutely cover.

The Steelers have experienced quarterbacks if McCarthy decides to use Rudolph.

Allar has been productive.

The defense has allowed only 26 combined points through two games.

But the uncertainty surrounding Pittsburgh’s quarterback allocation makes laying the points with Buffalo more attractive.

The total is the stronger play.

At 35.5, the number looks dangerous because Buffalo has scored 29 and 31.

But Josh Allen isn’t playing.

Pittsburgh just scored zero.

And both defenses have been far more consistent than Pittsburgh’s offense.

A 20-13 final score fits the matchup.

The Verdict

Prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 13

Pick: Buffalo Bills -3

Moneyline: Buffalo Bills

Total Pick: Under 35.5

Buffalo has been the more complete preseason team.

Its starters looked ready in Week 1.

Its backups looked ready in Week 2.

Now the Bills enter the finale with one of the clearest and most competitive quarterback situations in the league.

Kyle Allen needs to win the backup job.

Buechele needs to win the backup job.

That motivation matters.

Pittsburgh enters with a different objective.

Howard needs to rebound.

Allar needs more developmental work.

Iheanachor needs his first live game snaps.

The Steelers need to regain confidence after being shut out.

Expect Pittsburgh to look better than it did against the Jets.

Allar should generate several completions downfield.

Johnson should help the running game.

The Steelers’ defense should keep Buffalo from turning the game into another 31-point performance.

But the Bills possess the more reliable quarterback depth right now.

Kyle Allen should produce at least one touchdown drive.

Buechele should create another scoring opportunity in the second half.

Buffalo’s defense should generate enough pressure to force Pittsburgh into field goals rather than touchdowns.

That gives the Bills the slight edge while keeping the game below the total.

Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 13

Best Bet: Under 35.5

Against the Spread: Buffalo Bills -3

Top Player Prop: Kyle Allen Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: Ja’Mori Maclin Over 34.5 Receiving Yards | Drew Allar Over 99.5 Passing Yards if Pittsburgh confirms extended playing time