Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans 2026 Preseason Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Time: 8:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM CT

Location: Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas (formerly NRG Stadium)

TV: ESPN / ABC13 Houston / FOX5 Las Vegas

Tickets: As low as $11

Betting Line: Houston Texans -1.5

Over/Under: 40.5 Points

The Las Vegas Raiders travel to Houston Thursday night for a fascinating Preseason Week 2 matchup against the Texans, with both teams expected to give important players considerably more meaningful work than they received in their exhibition openers.

The game will be played at Reliant Stadium, the venue formerly known as NRG Stadium. The stadium officially returned to its original Reliant name in August 2026 as part of the Texans’ 25th anniversary season. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET and the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans has indicated that C.J. Stroud and most healthy Texans starters are expected to play, giving Houston fans their first preseason look at many of the players who will determine whether the Texans can make a serious AFC championship run.

Las Vegas enters with one of the NFL’s most compelling quarterback competitions.

Veteran Kirk Cousins sits atop the unofficial depth chart, but No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza continues to push for playing time. Both quarterbacks showed encouraging signs in the Raiders’ 27-14 preseason-opening loss to Arizona. Cousins completed 5 of 6 passes for 50 yards and a touchdown on his only drive, while Mendoza completed 10 of 16 for 97 yards and a touchdown over four possessions.

Houston is coming off a much less successful opener.

The Texans lost 27-7 to the Los Angeles Chargers, and quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Houston subsequently added veteran Brett Rypien, who is expected to receive substantial preseason work behind Stroud and Davis Mills.

Using the numbers provided for this preview, Houston enters as a 1.5-point home favorite with an over/under of 40.5 points. Those numbers are also consistent with current consensus pricing.

Top Four Prop Bets

Preseason player props are not offered consistently at every sportsbook. Unless your book lists the exact number below, these should be considered projected betting targets based on expected playing time, quarterback rotations and training-camp usage.

Prop Bet #1: Fernando Mendoza Over 99.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Mendoza Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• No. 1 Overall Pick
• Extended Evaluation
• 97 Yards in Preseason Debut

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Fernando Mendoza immediately established himself as one of the most interesting quarterbacks of the 2026 preseason.

The No. 1 overall selection completed 10 of 16 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown against Arizona while handling four offensive possessions. His touchdown came on a 6-yard completion to Jack Bech.

That performance makes a projected passing total around 100 yards attractive against Houston.

Cousins remains first on Las Vegas’ unofficial depth chart, but the Raiders need significantly more game evidence before determining exactly how quickly Mendoza should be pushed toward the starting position.

That should mean meaningful repetitions.

Mendoza also made several impressive throws during Tuesday’s joint practice with Houston. His best completion came to Brock Bowers on a tight-window throw between multiple defenders.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Playing time is the strongest argument.

Cousins doesn’t need three quarters of preseason football. He is an established veteran with years of starting experience.

Mendoza needs every possible game repetition.

If the rookie receives another four or five possessions, reaching 100 yards should be realistic.

He came within three yards of that number in his debut despite completing only 10 passes.

Bowers also gives him an elite security blanket. The star tight end repeatedly created separation during Tuesday’s joint practice and caught passes from both Cousins and Mendoza.

Why the Under Could Hit

Houston’s defense presents an enormous challenge.

Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Jadeveon Clowney generated pressure during Tuesday’s joint practice, and the Texans defense produced two interception returns for touchdowns.

Las Vegas must protect Mendoza considerably better Thursday.

If Houston’s pass rush consistently forces the rookie to throw early, the Raiders could become increasingly conservative.

Still, expected volume makes Mendoza one of the strongest projected prop targets.

Projected Bet: Fernando Mendoza Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: C.J. Stroud Over 74.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Stroud Over 74.5 Passing Yards

• Starters Expected to Play
• Strong Joint Practice
• Nico Collins Connection

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C.J. Stroud is expected to receive his first preseason game action Thursday.

Ryans rested most of Houston’s established starters against the Chargers but has indicated that the healthy first-team players should participate against Las Vegas.

That gives Stroud an opportunity to build on an encouraging stretch of training camp.

Houston’s offense produced one of its strongest practices of the summer Tuesday against Las Vegas. Stroud threw two touchdowns during the joint session and continued developing chemistry with his receivers.

A projected total around 75 passing yards gives Stroud an attainable target even if he only plays several possessions.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Houston wants game-speed offensive rhythm.

The Texans don’t need to evaluate whether Stroud belongs on the roster.

They need their starting offense to operate efficiently before the regular season.

That should mean real play-action passes, third-down situations and opportunities to work with Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and Houston’s other established weapons.

Stroud also won’t need a huge workload to reach 75 yards.

Two successful scoring possessions could be enough.

Houston’s running game finally showed considerable improvement during Tuesday’s joint practice, which should strengthen the play-action opportunities available to Stroud.

Why the Under Could Hit

Playing time remains the obvious concern.

If Houston’s opening offense puts together one long touchdown drive, Ryans could decide Stroud has accomplished everything necessary.

Davis Mills and newly signed Brett Rypien also need preseason work, particularly after Mertz’s injury.

Las Vegas also possesses Maxx Crosby, one of the league’s most disruptive edge defenders, although the Raiders’ exact starter workload has not been formally established.

That makes this a wager dependent heavily on Stroud receiving at least two or three possessions.

Projected Bet: C.J. Stroud Over 74.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: David Montgomery Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Montgomery Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

• Excellent Joint Practice
• Improved Run Blocking
• Physical Running Style

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David Montgomery may have been Houston’s biggest offensive winner during Tuesday’s joint practice.

The veteran running back consistently found room against Las Vegas as the Texans’ offensive line produced its best rushing performance of training camp. Houston’s own practice coverage highlighted Montgomery’s success and the improvement of the blocking unit.

That makes a modest projected rushing total around 30 yards attractive.

Montgomery doesn’t need 15 carries.

Five or six productive attempts could be enough.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Houston wants to establish a more dependable running game.

That was one of the team’s major areas of emphasis entering this week’s joint practice, and Tuesday represented meaningful progress.

Montgomery’s physical running style is ideal for preseason football.

He doesn’t require elaborate blocking schemes to produce positive yardage.

Give him a crease.

Get him to the second level.

Allow him to finish runs.

The presence of Stroud also helps.

Las Vegas cannot simply load the box when Houston’s starting passing offense is on the field.

Why the Under Could Hit

Houston has other running backs to evaluate.

Woody Marks also performed well during Tuesday’s joint practice, including productive rushing attempts and a touchdown reception.

The Texans therefore have little reason to give Montgomery a regular-season workload.

If he gets four carries rather than eight, reaching 30 yards becomes considerably more difficult.

Houston could also remove him at roughly the same time Stroud leaves the game.

Still, Montgomery’s recent form and Houston’s renewed emphasis on the running game make the over attractive at a modest number.

Projected Bet: David Montgomery Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 40.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 40.5 Points

• Elite Texans Defense
• Backup QB Rotations
• Preseason Second-Half Slowdown

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The 40.5-point total is noticeably higher than many other preseason games, and that creates an opportunity to look toward the under.

The first quarter could feature legitimate offensive talent.

Stroud should play.

Cousins could see additional work.

Mendoza should receive meaningful repetitions.

Houston’s starters are expected to participate.

But Thursday is still a preseason game.

Eventually the quarterbacks change.

The offensive lines rotate.

Receivers deeper on the depth chart enter.

Communication becomes more difficult.

And Houston’s defense is capable of completely disrupting possessions.

That was evident Tuesday.

The Texans pressured both Cousins and Mendoza during joint practice and produced two interceptions returned for touchdowns.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Houston’s defense is the biggest reason.

Anderson and Hunter give the Texans elite pressure off the edge, while Derek Stingley Jr. anchors an opportunistic secondary.

Las Vegas’ young offensive linemen will be tested.

Once Cousins leaves, Mendoza must operate against a defense capable of speeding up his internal clock.

The second half should become even more favorable for the under.

Houston lost Mertz for the season and recently signed Rypien. Although Rypien has NFL experience, he has had limited time to learn Houston’s offense.

That could result in conservative play-calling late.

Why the Over Could Hit

Quarterback quality is considerably better than in a typical preseason game.

Stroud is an established starter.

Cousins has extensive NFL experience.

Mendoza was the No. 1 overall pick and immediately looked comfortable in his preseason debut.

Both offenses also produced touchdowns during Tuesday’s joint practice.

One defensive score could change everything.

Houston’s defense already produced two pick-sixes Tuesday, and a similar turnover Thursday would immediately make the under uncomfortable.

Still, 40.5 provides enough cushion to back a defensive, increasingly conservative second half.

Bet: Under 40.5 Points

The Matchup Context: Preseason Week 2 Means More Starter Reps

The second preseason game often tells us considerably more than the first.

Houston rested most of its premier players against Los Angeles.

That changes Thursday.

Ryans has indicated that most healthy starters are expected to play, including Stroud.

The objective isn’t necessarily winning.

Houston wants execution.

The Texans need Stroud operating behind the offensive line against another defense.

They need Montgomery carrying the football under live conditions.

They need the starting defense tackling rather than simply finishing practice repetitions.

For Las Vegas, the stakes are different.

The Raiders are beginning a new era under head coach Klint Kubiak, and the quarterback position remains unsettled.

Cousins provides the veteran option.

Mendoza represents the future.

How quickly that future arrives is one of the biggest questions of the Raiders’ preseason.

Fernando Mendoza Continues His Push

Mendoza couldn’t have asked for a much better beginning to his NFL career.

The No. 1 overall selection completed 62.5 percent of his attempts against Arizona, threw a touchdown and led another possession into field-goal range.

He looked composed.

He moved the offense.

He avoided the type of disastrous mistakes that often affect rookie quarterbacks during their first preseason appearance.

Now the difficulty increases dramatically.

Houston’s defense is considerably more aggressive.

Tuesday’s joint practice gave Mendoza a preview.

The Texans’ pass rush consistently created pressure, and their secondary punished mistakes with multiple interception returns.

Thursday becomes another developmental test.

Can Mendoza diagnose pressure before the snap?

Can he get the football out quickly?

Can he resist forcing the ball when Houston disguises coverage?

Can he respond after getting hit?

Those answers matter more than his final passing total.

Kirk Cousins Still Holds the Advantage

The rookie received most of the headlines after Week 1, but Cousins reminded everyone why winning the starting job won’t be easy.

He completed five of six passes for 50 yards and a touchdown during his only possession against Arizona.

That’s almost exactly what Las Vegas wanted.

Efficiency.

Command.

Points.

No mistakes.

Cousins also connected repeatedly with Bowers during Tuesday’s joint practice, including a red-zone touchdown to finish the session.

Mendoza may eventually become the Raiders’ franchise quarterback.

But Cousins is making Las Vegas earn that transition.

Another efficient performance in Houston could keep the veteran firmly atop the depth chart entering the final preseason game.

Brock Bowers Could Be the Raiders’ Offensive Difference-Maker

Few tight ends create matchup problems like Brock Bowers.

Tuesday demonstrated why.

Bowers caught the opening pass of the joint practice from Cousins, made additional plays throughout the session, caught Mendoza’s best throw of the day and finished with a touchdown from Cousins during red-zone work.

That makes him an invaluable weapon for both quarterbacks.

For Cousins, Bowers provides a proven target who understands spacing.

For Mendoza, Bowers provides security.

When a rookie quarterback isn’t completely certain what the defense is showing him, finding an elite tight end over the middle can simplify the game.

Houston’s linebackers and safeties must account for Bowers whenever he is on the field.

Houston’s Offense Needs to Build on Tuesday

The Texans’ preseason opener wasn’t encouraging offensively.

They scored seven points in the 27-7 loss to the Chargers.

But the context matters.

Most of Houston’s established starters didn’t play.

Tuesday looked dramatically different.

The offensive line created running lanes.

Montgomery consistently gained yardage.

Stroud threw touchdowns.

The Texans moved the football against Las Vegas’ starting defense.

Thursday is about carrying that momentum into a game.

Houston doesn’t need Stroud to play three quarters.

The Texans need several clean possessions.

If they can produce one touchdown drive and another possession ending in points, Ryans should be satisfied.

Houston’s Running Game Could Be the Key

One of Houston’s most important offseason questions has been whether the running game can consistently support Stroud.

Tuesday provided encouraging evidence.

Montgomery produced his strongest practice of the summer, while Houston’s offensive line consistently created room against Las Vegas. Marks also contributed effectively.

That balance is critical.

Stroud is considerably more dangerous when defenses must respect play action.

Collins becomes more difficult to cover.

Schultz finds space over the middle.

The pass rush slows down.

Houston doesn’t need Montgomery to rush for 1,500 yards to transform the offense.

The Texans need the running game to become enough of a threat that opponents cannot simply attack Stroud on every passing down.

Thursday provides another opportunity to test that progress.

The Graham Mertz Injury Changes Houston’s Quarterback Rotation

Houston entered the preseason hoping Mertz would challenge for the backup position behind Davis Mills.

That evaluation ended abruptly against Los Angeles.

Mertz tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season. Houston responded by adding veteran Brett Rypien.

That changes Thursday’s second half.

Stroud should receive the opening work.

Mills remains the established backup.

But Rypien needs repetitions.

He has NFL experience and familiarity with offensive coordinator Nick Caley, which should help accelerate his transition, but there is no substitute for game snaps.

How effectively Rypien handles Houston’s offense could become an important fourth-quarter storyline.

Players to Watch

C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans: Stroud is expected to make his preseason debut after sitting out Houston’s opener. His objective is efficiency and rhythm rather than accumulating statistics.

David Montgomery, RB, Texans: Montgomery produced his best rushing work of camp during Tuesday’s joint practice and should benefit if Houston’s offensive line continues its recent improvement.

Woody Marks, RB, Texans: Marks also impressed against Las Vegas during the joint session and adds receiving ability out of the backfield.

Nico Collins, WR, Texans: Collins remains Stroud’s premier outside weapon and gives Houston a legitimate downfield threat whenever the starting offense is on the field.

Brett Rypien, QB, Texans: The veteran was signed following Mertz’s ACL injury and needs immediate preseason repetitions to become comfortable in Houston’s system.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Raiders: Cousins was nearly perfect in his preseason debut, completing five of six passes and finishing his only possession with a touchdown.

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders: The No. 1 overall selection threw for 97 yards and a touchdown in his debut and continues pushing for more opportunities with the starting offense.

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders: Jeanty sits atop the Raiders’ running back depth chart and remains one of the most explosive offensive players Las Vegas can put around either quarterback.

Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders: Bowers was arguably Las Vegas’ best offensive player during Tuesday’s joint practice, producing catches from both quarterbacks and a red-zone touchdown.

Maxx Crosby, DE, Raiders: Crosby gives Las Vegas an elite pass-rushing threat and represents exactly the type of defender Houston’s offensive line must prove it can handle before the regular season.

Keys to the Game

Houston Texans

Houston’s first priority is protecting Stroud.

The Texans don’t need him throwing 30 passes.

They need several clean possessions that build confidence heading toward September.

Second, Houston must continue running the football effectively.

Tuesday’s joint practice provided encouraging progress. Thursday determines whether that success translates under actual game conditions.

Third, Houston needs its defense to pressure Mendoza without revealing too much of the regular-season scheme.

Anderson and Hunter don’t require complicated blitz packages to affect a quarterback.

Winning individual matchups should be enough.

Fourth, Houston needs to evaluate Rypien.

Mertz’s injury created an unexpected change at quarterback, and every repetition Rypien receives increases his comfort within the offense.

Finally, the Texans need to protect the football.

Preseason games involving low spreads are frequently decided by one turnover.

Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas’ primary focus remains quarterback evaluation.

Cousins needs to continue playing efficient football.

Mendoza needs to continue developing.

The Raiders don’t need either quarterback to force spectacular throws.

Move the chains.

Avoid turnovers.

Finish drives.

Second, Las Vegas must protect against Houston’s pass rush.

Tuesday provided a warning.

Anderson, Hunter and Clowney repeatedly disrupted the Raiders’ quarterbacks.

The offensive line must respond.

Third, the Raiders need to involve Bowers.

He was Las Vegas’ most consistent matchup advantage during joint practice and can make life significantly easier for both Cousins and Mendoza.

Fourth, Las Vegas needs its defense to stop Houston’s improved running game.

If Montgomery consistently creates manageable second downs, Stroud becomes considerably harder to defend.

Finally, the Raiders need cleaner football than they played in the opener.

Las Vegas lost 27-14 against Arizona despite encouraging quarterback performances.

Quarterback play alone isn’t enough.

Betting Prediction

Houston -1.5 is a reasonable number.

The Texans are at home.

Their starters are expected to participate.

Stroud should receive game action.

And Houston’s defense gives the Texans an advantage regardless of which quarterback Las Vegas puts on the field.

But the Raiders shouldn’t be dismissed.

Cousins looked extremely comfortable during his opening preseason series.

Mendoza looked composed during his NFL debut.

Bowers provides both quarterbacks with an elite receiving option.

The most important matchup may therefore be Houston’s pass rush against Las Vegas’ offensive line.

If the Raiders protect the quarterback, they have enough talent to score.

If Houston produces pressure similar to Tuesday’s joint practice, the Texans should control the game.

The 40.5 total is interesting because the opening quarter could be relatively productive.

Stroud and Houston’s starting offense should play.

Cousins and Mendoza both have the ability to move Las Vegas.

But the game should slow once the deeper quarterback rotations arrive.

Houston could eventually be using Rypien, who has only been with the team for several days.

Las Vegas could begin emphasizing its deepest roster evaluations.

Those fourth-quarter conditions favor the under.

The Verdict

Prediction: Texans 20, Raiders 17

Pick: Houston Texans -1.5

Total Pick: Under 40.5

Houston’s starting defense provides the deciding advantage.

Las Vegas has enough quarterback talent to make this considerably more competitive than a typical preseason game.

Cousins should operate efficiently.

Mendoza should continue demonstrating why the Raiders made him the No. 1 overall selection.

But Houston’s defensive front can change everything.

Tuesday’s joint practice demonstrated how difficult the Texans can become when Anderson, Hunter and Clowney consistently generate pressure. Houston’s defense also showed its ability to turn quarterback mistakes directly into points.

The Texans should also receive better offensive production than they produced against the Chargers.

Stroud returns.

Montgomery’s running game is improving.

Houston’s offensive line enters after one of its strongest practice performances of the summer.

That should be enough for the Texans to establish an early advantage.

Las Vegas will stay close because of its quarterback depth.

Mendoza could even create a late opportunity to win the game.

But Houston’s defensive pressure and home-field advantage should produce one decisive turnover or fourth-quarter stop.

Expect a competitive first half, a more defensive second half and a game that remains within one possession deep into the fourth quarter.

Final Score Prediction: Houston Texans 20, Las Vegas Raiders 17

Best Bet: Under 40.5

Against the Spread: Houston Texans -1.5

Top Player Prop: Fernando Mendoza Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: C.J. Stroud Over 74.5 Passing Yards | David Montgomery Over 29.5 Rushing Yards