Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts 2026 Preseason Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Time: 1:00 PM ET

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

TV: CBS4 Indianapolis / NFL+ out of market

Tickets: As low as $7

Betting Line: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

Moneyline: Indianapolis approximately -175 to -185 / Atlanta approximately +145 to +154

Over/Under: 36.5 Points

The Atlanta Falcons travel to Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday afternoon for a Preseason Week 2 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, but anyone expecting to see Tua Tagovailoa, Bijan Robinson, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the majority of either team’s starters will be disappointed.

Both coaching staffs used Wednesday and Thursday’s joint practices as their primary competitive work for their first-team players.

Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen has announced that the vast majority of Colts starters will not play Saturday. Daniel Jones will sit, while rookie Riley Leonard starts and plays the entire first half. Anthony Richardson Sr. will then handle the entire second half.

Atlanta is taking essentially the same approach.

Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski said his starters received the majority of the work during the two joint practices and will not play in Saturday’s game. That means Tagovailoa, Robinson, Drake London and most of Atlanta’s established first-team players are expected to watch from the sideline while Cooper Rush and rookie Jack Strand handle the quarterback work.

Those personnel decisions help explain why Indianapolis has moved from an opening line around -1.5 to a current consensus of approximately Colts -3.5, while the total has dropped from an opener around 37.5 to 36.5.

The matchup kicks off Saturday at 1:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis is 0-0-1 after tying New England 13-13 in its opener, while Atlanta enters 0-1 after a 27-7 loss to Denver.

Top Four Prop Bets

Preseason player props are not consistently available at every sportsbook. Unless your sportsbook lists the exact number below, these should be considered projected betting targets based on announced workloads, previous preseason production and likely rotations.

Prop Bet #1: Riley Leonard Over 99.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Leonard Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• Entire First Half
• Falcons Starters Sitting
• QB2 Competition

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Riley Leonard receives one of the most valuable things a preseason bettor can ask for:

A guaranteed half of football.

Steichen has announced that Leonard will start and play the entire first half against Atlanta before Richardson takes over after halftime.

That makes a projected total around 100 passing yards appealing.

Leonard played the entire second half against New England and completed 10 of 21 passes for 89 yards. He also threw one interception, but the overall workload demonstrated that Indianapolis is serious about giving him enough snaps to make a meaningful evaluation.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Atlanta’s established defensive starters will not play.

Stefanski specifically said Saturday is essentially a game for the Falcons’ second- and third-team players after their starters received the majority of the work during joint practices.

That should create a friendlier environment than Leonard would face during a regular-season game.

Indianapolis also has several reserve pass-catchers capable of helping him accumulate yardage.

Will Mallory was outstanding against New England, catching six passes for 80 yards. Leonard described Mallory as a “friendly target” because of his size, speed and understanding of open space.

With a full two quarters, Leonard could approach 18-to-22 attempts again.

He doesn’t need explosive passing numbers.

Something like 12 completions for 110 yards would cash this projected over.

Why the Under Could Hit

Atlanta’s reserve defense looked very good during Thursday’s second joint practice.

The Falcons’ defensive line generated consistent disruption against Indianapolis, while Atlanta’s defensive backs produced multiple pass breakups during one-on-one work.

Leonard also averaged only 4.2 yards per attempt against New England.

If Indianapolis emphasizes the running game or Leonard struggles to create explosive completions, he could finish in the 80-to-95-yard range again.

Still, the guaranteed first-half workload makes the over attractive.

Projected Bet: Riley Leonard Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Richardson Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

• 53 Rushing Yards in Opener
• Entire Second Half
• Elite QB Mobility

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Anthony Richardson Sr. reminded everyone against New England why his rushing ability remains such a unique weapon.

Richardson played the entire first half and completed 11 of 14 passes for 145 yards.

But his biggest statistical impact came on the ground.

He rushed six times for 53 yards and scored on a quarterback sneak.

Saturday, Richardson gets another full half.

This time it will be the second.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Richardson’s mobility becomes particularly dangerous in preseason football.

Reserve offensive lines don’t always communicate perfectly.

Receivers occasionally run the wrong route.

Protection breaks down.

Pocket quarterbacks are forced to throw the ball away.

Richardson can turn the same broken play into 12 rushing yards.

He averaged nearly nine yards per rushing attempt against New England.

Even if Indianapolis doesn’t call designed quarterback runs, four or five scrambles could put him above 40 yards.

Atlanta’s starters will also be out of the game, meaning Richardson should spend his entire appearance facing second- and third-team defenders.

That athletic mismatch could become increasingly noticeable in the fourth quarter.

Why the Under Could Hit

The Colts don’t want Richardson absorbing unnecessary hits.

This is still a preseason game.

If he breaks containment, coaches would probably prefer that he slide rather than lower his shoulder into a linebacker.

Indianapolis may also encourage Richardson to remain in the pocket because the purpose of these preseason snaps is partly to evaluate his passing development.

His first game already showed significant progress there.

Richardson completed 78.5 percent of his passes, his highest completion percentage in any preseason or regular-season NFL game.

But his natural athletic instincts remain difficult to suppress.

Projected Bet: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Tyler Goodson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Goodson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

• Atlanta Starters Sitting
• Strong Joint Practice
• Revenge Game vs Former Team

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–

Tyler Goodson enters Saturday with an interesting storyline.

He spent the first three seasons of his NFL career with Indianapolis.

Now he gets a preseason opportunity against his former team.

Goodson has played 33 regular-season games with the Colts, carrying 54 times for 264 yards while averaging 4.9 yards per carry.

More importantly for Saturday, he should have an opportunity for meaningful work because Atlanta’s established offensive starters won’t play.

The Falcons list Bijan Robinson first, Brian Robinson Jr. second and Goodson third on their depth chart. With the first-team players being held out, Goodson moves much closer to the front of the game-day rushing rotation.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Goodson already received substantial preseason work against Denver.

Atlanta’s official game recap noted that he “got a lot of work” after Bijan Robinson sat and Brian Robinson Jr. departed following the opening two series.

Then came the joint practices.

Goodson was one of Atlanta’s standout offensive players Wednesday against his former team.

The Falcons’ official practice report described him as elusive in tight spaces and explosive when he reached the open field, noting that he produced several significant runs against Indianapolis.

That is a strong indicator entering Saturday.

The Falcons know exactly what Goodson can do against the Indianapolis front because they watched him do it two days earlier.

With the starters sitting, they can give him legitimate volume.

Why the Under Could Hit

Atlanta needs to evaluate more than one running back.

Nathan Carter and Cash Jones are behind Goodson on the depth chart and should also receive opportunities.

That could limit Goodson to seven or eight carries.

Indianapolis’ reserve defensive line also produced encouraging results against New England, with rookies George Gumbs Jr. and Caden Curry both recording sacks.

Still, approximately eight-to-10 touches could be enough.

Projected Bet: Tyler Goodson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 36.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 36.5 Points

• Both Starting Offenses Sitting
• Backup QB Rotations
• Atlanta Scored 7 in Opener

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The under is the strongest overall angle.

Both teams are sitting most of their established starters.

Indianapolis will not play Jones, Taylor and the overwhelming majority of its first-team offense.

Atlanta will sit Tagovailoa, Bijan Robinson, London and most of its first-team players after giving them extensive work during the joint practices.

That leaves a game centered around:

Riley Leonard.

Anthony Richardson Sr.

Cooper Rush.

Jack Strand.

That quarterback group has talent, but the surrounding offensive personnel will largely consist of backups fighting for roster positions.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Look at the opening preseason performances.

Indianapolis scored 13 points against New England.

Atlanta scored seven points against Denver.

Atlanta’s offense was especially inconsistent.

The Falcons’ most promising first-half drive lasted 14 plays but ended when Rush threw an interception that Denver returned 97 yards for a touchdown.

Strand completed six of 12 passes for only 50 yards in his NFL debut, although he did produce Atlanta’s only touchdown with his legs.

Indianapolis was better offensively, but even Richardson’s 145 passing yards and 53 rushing yards produced only one offensive touchdown during his half.

That is the nature of preseason football.

Yardage doesn’t always become points.

Penalties happen.

Protection breaks down.

Reserve receivers drop passes.

Drives stall inside the 30.

Coaches settle for field goals.

Why the Over Could Hit

Richardson changes the equation.

His rushing ability can create explosive scoring opportunities against Atlanta’s reserves.

Leonard also has enough mobility to extend drives.

Atlanta’s offense should be more comfortable after another week in Stefanski’s system, and Rush has considerable NFL starting experience.

Strand can also create with his legs near the goal line.

One turnover returned for a touchdown could turn a 17-13 game into a 24-13 game instantly.

But 36.5 still feels slightly high for two teams deliberately resting almost their entire starting units.

Bet: Under 36.5 Points

The Matchup Context: Joint Practices Were the Starters’ Game

This matchup is unusual because the most important football of the week may have already happened.

Atlanta and Indianapolis held joint practices Wednesday and Thursday at Grand Park.

Both coaching staffs deliberately structured those sessions to provide their first-team players with substantial competitive work.

Stefanski made Atlanta’s plan explicit.

The starters received the majority of the joint-practice repetitions.

Saturday belongs to the twos and threes.

Steichen reached essentially the same conclusion.

Indianapolis’ top players got their work during the joint sessions, so the vast majority will watch Saturday.

That changes how this game should be handicapped.

Atlanta may have the more dangerous regular-season skill-position group.

It doesn’t matter Saturday.

Indianapolis may have one of the league’s most productive regular-season running backs in Taylor.

He won’t determine this game.

Preseason betting is about who actually plays.

And Saturday belongs to the backups.

Indianapolis Gets Another Look at Its QB2 Battle

Daniel Jones is Indianapolis’ established starter.

Saturday is about determining what happens behind him.

The Colts structured their first two preseason games almost perfectly for evaluating Richardson and Leonard.

Against New England:

Richardson played the first half.

Leonard played the second.

Against Atlanta:

Leonard gets the first half.

Richardson gets the second.

That allows Steichen to compare both quarterbacks in different situations.

Starting a game matters.

Operating the two-minute drill before halftime matters.

Entering cold at halftime matters.

Playing with deeper reserves in the fourth quarter matters.

The Colts are collecting information rather than making a decision based on one impressive drive.

Richardson Raised the Bar in Week 1

Richardson’s performance against New England was one of the most encouraging developments of Indianapolis’ preseason opener.

His raw numbers:

11-of-14 passing.

145 yards.

53 rushing yards.

One rushing touchdown.

It wasn’t perfect.

He threw an interception after the football went through receiver Coleman Owen’s hands and later lost a fumble.

But Richardson responded instead of unraveling.

That may have been more important than the statistics.

His 78.5 percent completion rate represented the best mark of his NFL career in either preseason or regular-season action.

Saturday gives him the opportunity to prove it wasn’t a one-game flash.

The challenge will be different.

Rather than starting, Richardson enters at halftime.

Rather than working against another team’s top backups during the opening quarter, he could finish the game against defenders fighting for the final few roster spots.

His athleticism could become overwhelming in that environment.

Riley Leonard Has Something to Prove

Leonard’s first preseason performance wasn’t disastrous.

It wasn’t spectacular either.

He finished 10-of-21 for 89 yards with an interception.

Saturday gives him the perfect response opportunity.

He starts.

He receives an entire half.

He knows exactly when he will enter and when he will leave.

That structure allows Leonard to prepare almost like a regular-season starter.

The biggest objective should be efficiency.

He doesn’t need 200 passing yards.

He needs sustained possessions.

Convert third down.

Avoid the turnover.

Get Indianapolis across midfield.

Finish a drive.

Leonard also has an ideal security blanket in Mallory.

The tight end’s six-catch, 80-yard performance against New England made him one of Indianapolis’ biggest Week 1 standouts.

Expect Leonard to look his direction again.

Atlanta Turns the Offense Over to Cooper Rush and Jack Strand

This game is dramatically more important for Rush and Strand than it is for Tagovailoa.

Tua received his work during the joint practices.

Rush and Strand get the game.

Stefanski said earlier this week that the coaching staff would decide which quarterback starts after evaluating the joint sessions, but both are expected to handle Saturday’s offense.

Rush provides experience.

Strand provides developmental upside.

That combination should allow Atlanta to evaluate two very different quarterbacks.

Cooper Rush Needs a Cleaner Performance

Rush’s first Atlanta preseason appearance had both encouraging and disastrous moments.

The encouraging part came on a 14-play first-half possession.

Rush settled into rhythm and distributed the football to Dylan Drummond, Chris Blair, Vinny Anthony II and Zachariah Branch as Atlanta drove to Denver’s 7-yard line.

Then everything changed.

Rush threw an interception that Denver returned 97 yards for a touchdown.

One decision turned Atlanta’s best offensive possession into seven points for the opponent.

Saturday is about eliminating that mistake.

Rush already knows how to operate an NFL offense.

The Falcons don’t need to learn whether he can throw a 15-yard dig route.

They need to know whether he can protect the football if forced into regular-season action.

Jack Strand Gets Another Developmental Opportunity

Strand’s first NFL game was a significant moment.

The undrafted rookie from Minnesota State-Moorhead completed six of 12 passes for 50 yards and scored Atlanta’s only touchdown on the ground.

The numbers were modest.

The experience was invaluable.

Strand played Division II football before entering the NFL.

Everything now happens faster.

Pass rushers close space faster.

Defensive backs disguise coverage better.

Passing windows disappear faster.

Saturday gives him another opportunity to adjust.

Strand threw for more than 13,000 yards and 126 touchdowns during his college career, so production has never been the question.

The question is whether that production translates to NFL speed.

Atlanta’s Young Receivers Need to Make Their Case

With London, Jahan Dotson and Atlanta’s established offensive starters sitting, the young receivers should receive substantial opportunities.

Chris Blair is one of the most interesting.

He led Atlanta with 37 receiving yards against Denver and made a difficult 21-yard reception.

Zachariah Branch is another player to monitor.

The rookie caught two passes for six yards and added a three-yard rushing attempt in the opener.

Those numbers aren’t impressive.

His athletic profile is.

Branch won the Jet Award during his college career as the nation’s top return specialist and brings legitimate open-field explosiveness.

Saturday gives Atlanta an opportunity to manufacture touches for him.

Tyler Goodson Faces His Former Team

Goodson’s presence provides one of the more personal storylines.

He spent three seasons with Indianapolis.

He knows the stadium.

He knows some of the defenders.

He understands the organization.

Now he’s fighting for a roster position with Atlanta.

Wednesday’s joint practice showed why the Falcons like him.

Goodson generated several productive runs and looked particularly comfortable against his former teammates.

With Atlanta resting Robinson and most of the starters, Goodson could receive one of the largest offensive workloads Saturday.

Atlanta’s Defensive Depth Could Be the Difference

One reason the under deserves serious attention is Atlanta’s reserve defense.

Thursday’s second joint practice belonged largely to the Falcons’ defensive front.

Atlanta’s defensive linemen consistently created disruption against Indianapolis while the defensive backs produced one of their strongest practice sessions of training camp.

That is particularly relevant because those are exactly the players who will be on the field Saturday.

Atlanta isn’t resting its entire defense and then replacing it with players nobody has evaluated.

These backups have spent two days working against the Indianapolis offense they are about to face.

There should be very little mystery.

That familiarity could make Leonard’s first-half assignment more difficult than the depth chart alone suggests.

Indianapolis’ Young Pass Rushers Made an Immediate Impact

The Colts also have defensive depth worth watching.

Gumbs and Curry both recorded sacks during Indianapolis’ preseason opener.

Those young edge rushers should receive another substantial workload Saturday.

That presents an interesting challenge for Strand.

The rookie quarterback is still adjusting to NFL pressure.

Indianapolis can accelerate that learning process.

If Gumbs and Curry consistently collapse the pocket, Atlanta’s offense could struggle to sustain the same long possessions Rush produced against Denver.

Players to Watch

Riley Leonard, QB, Colts: Leonard starts and plays the entire first half after completing 10 of 21 passes for 89 yards against New England.

Anthony Richardson Sr., QB, Colts: Richardson gets the entire second half after producing 145 passing yards and 53 rushing yards in the opener.

Will Mallory, TE, Colts: Mallory led Indianapolis with six receptions for 80 yards and should again be a featured target for the backup quarterbacks.

DJ Giddens, RB, Colts: With Taylor sitting, Giddens and the reserve running backs should receive meaningful work as Indianapolis evaluates its depth. The Colts list Giddens directly behind Taylor.

George Gumbs Jr., DE, Colts: Gumbs recorded a sack in his preseason debut and should receive another extended opportunity.

Cooper Rush, QB, Falcons: Rush will handle a major share of Atlanta’s offense after a promising 14-play Week 1 possession ended with a 97-yard pick-six.

Jack Strand, QB, Falcons: Strand completed six of 12 passes for 50 yards and scored Atlanta’s lone touchdown against Denver.

Tyler Goodson, RB, Falcons: Goodson is positioned for increased work with Atlanta’s starters sitting and impressed against his former team during Wednesday’s joint practice.

Chris Blair, WR, Falcons: Blair led Atlanta with 37 receiving yards in the preseason opener.

Zachariah Branch, WR/Returner, Falcons: Branch’s explosiveness makes him a potential difference-maker on offense and special teams even if his Week 1 statistics were modest.

Keys to the Game

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis’ first priority is getting Leonard into rhythm.

The entire first half belongs to him.

The Colts need more than 89 passing yards and an interception.

They need command.

Second, Indianapolis must continue Richardson’s development.

The athleticism is obvious.

The passing improvement against New England was more important.

If Richardson again completes a high percentage of his passes while using his legs selectively, he could strengthen his hold on the No. 2 quarterback position.

Third, the Colts need production from their reserve receivers and tight ends.

Mallory was excellent in Week 1.

Someone else needs to emerge alongside him.

Fourth, Indianapolis’ young pass rushers should challenge Atlanta’s reserve offensive line.

Rush is experienced, but Strand is still learning how quickly NFL pockets disappear.

Finally, the Colts must avoid turnovers.

Richardson and Leonard each threw an interception against New England, and Richardson also lost a fumble.

Three turnovers are difficult to overcome in any game.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta’s first priority is protecting the football.

The Falcons’ best drive against Denver ended with seven points for Denver.

That cannot happen again.

Second, Atlanta must establish its running game.

Goodson looked good against Indianapolis during joint practice and could help keep Rush and Strand out of third-and-long situations.

Third, the Falcons need their defensive line to carry Thursday’s practice success into the stadium.

Atlanta’s front consistently affected Indianapolis’ offense during the second joint session.

Fourth, Branch, Blair and Atlanta’s reserve receivers need to create separation.

The Falcons are intentionally resting their starting skill players.

This game belongs to the players competing behind them.

Finally, Atlanta needs Strand to continue developing.

He doesn’t need 200 passing yards.

He needs better operation, improved timing and another game without a damaging interception.

Betting Prediction

The betting market has made a clear statement.

Indianapolis opened around -1.5 and has moved to approximately -3.5 at much of the market. The total has moved the opposite direction, falling from about 37.5 to 36.5.

Both moves make sense.

Indianapolis has the clearer quarterback plan.

Leonard gets an entire half.

Richardson gets an entire half.

Both already received substantial work against New England.

Atlanta’s arrangement is less defined between Rush and Strand.

Indianapolis also has the most dangerous individual quarterback in the game.

Richardson against third-team defenders in the fourth quarter could become a serious problem.

The question is whether Colts -3.5 has moved too far.

Atlanta’s starters are sitting, but so are Indianapolis’.

The Falcons’ reserve defense performed extremely well during Thursday’s joint practice.

Goodson also looked productive against the Colts earlier in the week.

At Indianapolis -1.5, the Colts would be very attractive.

At -3.5, the hook makes it more uncomfortable.

But quarterback stability still creates enough of an advantage to lean Indianapolis.

The total may be stronger.

Both teams are intentionally resting their starting offenses.

Atlanta scored seven points in Week 1.

Indianapolis scored 13.

A 20-13 final score would cash the under comfortably.

The Verdict

Prediction: Colts 20, Falcons 13

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts

Total Pick: Under 36.5

Indianapolis’ quarterback rotation is the biggest reason to back the home team.

Leonard receives the entire first half.

Richardson receives the entire second half.

There is no uncertainty.

There is no mid-quarter shuffle.

Each quarterback knows exactly when he will play and can prepare accordingly.

Atlanta is approaching Saturday primarily as an evaluation of the back half of its roster.

The starters already received their game-like repetitions during two joint practices.

Rush and Strand now control the offense.

Rush’s experience should keep Atlanta competitive.

Goodson should provide useful rushing production.

Blair and Branch give the Falcons enough receiving talent to create several successful possessions.

But Richardson becomes the deciding factor.

His combination of size, arm talent and mobility should become increasingly difficult for Atlanta’s third-team defenders to contain after halftime.

If Leonard gives Indianapolis even a small first-half lead, Richardson has the ability to protect it while creating one or two explosive scoring opportunities.

The total remains the preferred wager.

Neither regular-season starting quarterback will play.

Neither team’s top running back will play.

Most first-team receivers and offensive linemen will watch.

That is exactly the profile of a preseason game capable of becoming increasingly conservative in the second half.

Expect Leonard to move Indianapolis efficiently enough to generate points before halftime.

Expect Rush and Strand to keep Atlanta competitive.

Then expect Richardson to create the decisive touchdown with his legs or on a broken-play completion in the second half.

Final Score Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, Atlanta Falcons 13

Best Bet: Under 36.5

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

Top Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Additional Props: Riley Leonard Over 99.5 Passing Yards | Tyler Goodson Over 34.5 Rushing Yards