The New England Patriots won in fantastic fashion on a punt return to beat the Jets last weekend to move to 6-4. The Patriots have struggled to score points this season; they have won with defense and coaching, but to make a proper playoff run, Mac Jones and the offense will need to contribute more than they have, and this seems like the game to get that done as they face a terrible Vikings pass defense.
The Vikings are 8-2 but are coming off a horrible home defeat to the Dallas Cowboys. Was it just a bad performance they will overcome, or was it the beginning of the end for the Vikings? The Vikings are loaded on offense but the defense is shaky, especially against the pass. A Vikings win on Thursday night will go a long way in showing that the Cowboys’ loss was something that just happens from time to time in the NFL, and there is nothing to worry about.
The Patriots defence is the reason for their three-game winning streak that has them back in playoff contention. The pass defense has been suffocating, and on Thursday night, they will have to be on top of their game to get this win.
Mac Jones has to be able to go vertical in this game, but since he has returned as the starter that just hasn’t happened and if it continues the Patriots will struggle to beat even average teams.
Look for the Patriots to attack the Vikings with quick passes, as the Vikings are giving up 129 YAC after-catch yards per game. Turnovers will also be the key as the Vikings defense has not been very good this season, but they have been good at causing turnovers and if the Patriots are to win this game they must protect the football.
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Despite holding a 67-61-2 record overall, Kirk Cousins is just 10-18 in night games, including a 3-5 record on Thursdays with short rest. His passer rating has also taken a hit at night (93.9) compared to his overall mark (97.5). Is this a by-product of being on teams that aren’t that good, or is it that Cousins can’t win when it matters most? The Patriots defense is one of the best in the NFL, and they are really good at stopping the passing game. A big factor will be can the Vikings run the ball against the Patriots; if they can’t, this game could turn into a dogfight. In a dog fight though the Cardiac Vikings have been at their best, as has Cousins, who at the end of close games this year, has been on top of his game.
The Vikings defense will have to defense the run well and force Mac Jones to beat them through the air, which even with a poor Minnesota secondary Jones has not shown that he can get it done through the air.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS BETTING TRENDS
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of New England’s last six games.
The Patriots are 5-1 SU in their last six games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Minnesota’s last 18 games.
The Vikings are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Minnesota’s last seven games against New England.
The Vikings are 5-1 SU in their last six home games.
The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Minnesota.
The Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last five games against Minnesota.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New England’s last 18 road games.
Betting the game
A conservative game plan by the Patriots will keep this game close. Injuries to the Vikings offensive line make this game even tougher on the Vikings. Bill Belichick on a short week is the GOAT for a reason. I think the Patriots control the tempo of this game and win a physically tough game.
Prediction: New England Patriots 20 Minnesota Vikings 17(Take the Patriots and the 2.5 points)
Potential earnings
If you are betting on the Patriots to cover, the payoff will be decent, and I think the Patriots will cover this game. For example, the odds as of a few days before the game range to -110 if you are betting on the Patriots to cover. If you bet 100 on the Patriots to cover, the payout would be 91 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 91 for winning the bet. The best bet is betting on the Patriots to cover.
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