New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Wednesday, September 9, 2026 Time: 8:20 PM ET / 5:20 PM PT Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington TV: NBC / Peacock Tickets: As low as $279 Line: Seattle -3 Over/Under: 44.5

The 2026 NFL season begins with an immediate Super Bowl LX rematch as New England returns to Seattle just seven months after the Seahawks defeated the Patriots 29-13 to capture their second Lombardi Trophy. It is the NFL’s first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since Denver-Carolina in 2016.

Seattle enters banner night favored by three in the supplied line, although the market has moved slightly toward the Seahawks, with CBS Sports showing Seattle -3.5, -182 moneyline and a 44.5 total Tuesday.

Top Four Prop Bets

Player numbers below are projected betting targets unless your sportsbook offers the exact line.

Prop Bet #1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Smith-Njigba Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

• 1,793 Yards in 2025
• 119 Receptions
• Seattle’s Top Weapon

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Smith-Njigba established himself as one of football’s elite receivers last season, catching 119 passes for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns.

With Kenneth Walker III gone and Seattle working through changes in its backfield, Sam Darnold should continue leaning heavily on his best receiver.

Projected Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #2: Drake Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

• 450 Rush Yards in 2025
• Seattle Pressure
• Scramble Opportunity

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Maye rushed for 450 yards and four touchdowns during the 2025 regular season.

His mobility becomes especially important against Seattle. In Super Bowl LX, the Seahawks sacked Maye six times and pressured him on 52.8 percent of his dropbacks.

New England upgraded its offensive line, but Maye may still need his legs when Mike Macdonald brings pressure.

Projected Bet: Drake Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #3: A.J. Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

• New Patriots WR1
• 1,003 Yards in 2025
• Major Maye Upgrade

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New England’s biggest offensive change is A.J. Brown, acquired from Philadelphia during the offseason.

Brown finished 2025 with 78 receptions for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns, giving Maye the true No. 1 receiver New England lacked in the Super Bowl.

Expect Josh McDaniels to manufacture early opportunities for Brown, particularly against Seattle’s aggressive pressure packages.

Projected Bet: A.J. Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4: Under 44.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 44.5 Points

• Elite Seattle Defense
• Super Bowl Rematch
• Strong Pass Rush

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The Super Bowl finished with 42 combined points, and Seattle’s defense dictated nearly everything.

New England has improved its receiving corps and offensive line, but the Patriots still have to prove they can consistently block Seattle’s front.

The Seahawks have offensive questions of their own after losing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency.

Bet: Under 44.5 Points

Players to Watch

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots: Maye threw for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and only eight interceptions last season while adding 450 yards rushing.

A.J. Brown, WR, Patriots: The three-time Pro Bowler immediately becomes Maye’s most dangerous perimeter target.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots: Stevenson could have an expanded Week 1 role with TreVeyon Henderson missing practice because of an ankle injury.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks: Darnold threw for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns during Seattle’s championship regular season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks: Coming off a 1,793-yard season and remains Seattle’s premier offensive weapon.

Seattle’s Secondary: Safety Ty Okada missed Monday’s practice, while Nick Emmanwori was limited with an ankle injury.

Keys to the Game

New England

The Patriots must protect Maye better than they did in February.

New England also needs Brown to punish Seattle when the Seahawks blitz and must stay out of obvious third-and-long situations.

Defensively, the Patriots should force Seattle’s revamped backfield to prove it can replace Walker rather than allowing Darnold and Smith-Njigba to dictate the game.

Seattle

Seattle’s first priority is recreating the pressure that overwhelmed Maye in the Super Bowl.

Offensively, Darnold must remain efficient while Smith-Njigba attacks New England’s secondary.

Lumen Field and the championship-banner atmosphere give Seattle another significant edge.

Betting Prediction

New England should be better equipped for Seattle’s defense this time.

The additions of Brown, Romeo Doubs and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker give Maye more answers than he had in February.

But Seattle still has the matchup edge defensively and gets the rematch at home.

At Seattle -3, the Seahawks are the preferred side. At the current -3.5, the wager becomes slightly less attractive.

The total is stronger.

Expect both defenses to prevent long stretches of offensive rhythm.

The Verdict

The Patriots make this much more competitive than Super Bowl LX, with Brown creating several explosive plays and Maye using his legs to escape pressure.

But Seattle’s defense produces one critical fourth-quarter stop, and Darnold finds Smith-Njigba enough times to finish the job.

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Seahawks 24, New England Patriots 20

Best Bet: Under 44.5

Against the Spread: Seattle -3

Moneyline: Seattle

Top Player Prop: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 79.5 Receiving Yards

Additional Props: Drake Maye Over 29.5 Rushing Yards | A.J. Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards