Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders 2026 Preseason Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Friday, August 14, 2026

Time: 7:00 PM ET

Location: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Maryland

TV: CBS Miami / WUSA9 Washington; NFL+ out of market

Tickets: As low as $10

Betting Line: Miami Dolphins -3.5

Over/Under: 35.5 Points

The Miami Dolphins begin a new era Friday night when they travel to Northwest Stadium to face the Washington Commanders in their 2026 preseason opener.

For Miami, this is much more than another exhibition game.

New head coach Jeff Hafley has taken over a young, dramatically reshaped roster, while Malik Willis enters the season as the Dolphins’ presumptive starting quarterback. Unlike many established quarterbacks sitting out the opening preseason weekend, Willis is expected to play against Washington. Hafley said Wednesday that he plans to get Willis game action, while also indicating that Miami’s young roster as a whole needs preseason experience.

Washington’s approach should be considerably more conservative. Head coach Dan Quinn has not publicly committed to a specific quarterback rotation, but the Commanders put their starting units through significant work during Wednesday’s joint practice with Miami. That creates a strong possibility that Jayden Daniels and many established starters receive little or no game action Friday night.

The matchup provides Miami with an immediate opportunity to respond after a difficult joint practice.

Washington’s defensive front consistently disrupted the Dolphins’ offense Wednesday, creating pressure on Willis and Quinn Ewers while preventing Miami from establishing consistent rhythm. K’Lavon Chaisson, Joshua Josephs and the Commanders’ defensive front were particularly disruptive.

Using the betting numbers supplied for this preview, Miami enters as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of just 35.5.

That low total reflects what should eventually become a game dominated by backup quarterbacks, reserve offensive linemen and young players fighting for roster positions.

Top Four Prop Bets

Preseason player props can be limited or unavailable at individual sportsbooks. Unless your sportsbook offers the exact number listed below, these should be considered projected betting targets based on expected playing time, training-camp performance and roster competition.

Prop Bet #1: Malik Willis Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Willis Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

• Elite Mobility
• Confirmed Preseason Action
• Washington Pass Rush

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Malik Willis’ legs could become Miami’s most dangerous offensive weapon Friday night.

The Dolphins have identified Willis as their presumptive starting quarterback entering the season after signing him away from Green Bay. During his previous two seasons with the Packers, Willis rushed for 261 yards on 42 attempts—an average of 6.2 yards per carry—and scored three rushing touchdowns.

His running ability was already noticeable against Washington during Wednesday’s joint practice.

Miami’s official practice report noted that Willis repeatedly broke contain and created significant yardage as a scrambler.

That matters because Washington’s pass rush gave Miami problems.

Chaisson pressured Willis repeatedly, while Daron Payne and Josephs also created disruption against the Dolphins’ quarterbacks.

If similar pressure occurs Friday, Willis may be forced to escape the pocket.

The argument for the over is that he doesn’t need a large number of designed runs. Three or four productive scrambles could push him beyond 30 yards.

There is also motivation for Miami to let Willis operate naturally.

Hafley isn’t simply trying to protect an established veteran. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff, new offensive system and new starting quarterback. Willis needs game repetitions to develop timing and confidence with his teammates. Hafley has emphasized that Miami’s young roster needs to play football together.

The argument against the bet is playing time.

Miami has Ewers, Cam Miller and Mark Gronowski behind Willis, and the coaching staff needs to evaluate those quarterbacks as well. Willis could play only a couple of series.

The Dolphins also have no reason to expose their new starter to unnecessary hits.

Still, his mobility makes this an attractive projected number.

Projected Bet: Malik Willis Over 29.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Quinn Ewers Over 99.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Ewers Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• QB2 Opportunity
• NFL Starting Experience
• Explosive Camp Throws

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Quinn Ewers could receive one of the most important workloads of the night for Miami.

Ewers is the only returning quarterback in Miami’s current room and enters his second NFL season after making three starts as a rookie. He completed 66 percent of his passes across 83 attempts during his first season, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

He also showed encouraging preseason production in 2025.

Against Detroit, Ewers completed 11 of 17 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns.

Miami’s 2026 training camp has provided more encouraging signs.

Ewers has repeatedly connected on deep throws, including passes to A.J. Henning, Kevin Coleman Jr., Jalen Tolbert, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Tahj Washington.

That gives Miami’s backup passing offense legitimate big-play potential.

The strongest reason to like an Ewers passing-yard over is volume.

Willis needs preseason work, but he is already positioned as Miami’s regular-season starter. Ewers has considerably more to prove as the Dolphins establish their quarterback hierarchy behind him.

If Ewers receives a quarter and a half or more, 100 yards becomes reachable.

The concern is Washington’s defensive front.

Josephs disrupted one of Ewers’ play-action attempts during the joint practice and would have recorded a sack under game conditions. Washington’s defense spent much of Wednesday in Miami’s backfield.

Still, Miami will want to evaluate Ewers as a passer rather than simply handing the football off throughout his appearance.

Projected Bet: Quinn Ewers Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Kaytron Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

• Roster Competition
• Physical Running Style
• Extended Preseason Opportunity

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Washington’s crowded running back room should create significant opportunities for Kaytron Allen.

The Commanders’ initial unofficial depth chart lists Jacory Croskey-Merritt first at running back, followed by Rachaad White, with Jeremy McNichols and Allen deeper in the rotation.

In a regular-season game, that positioning would make an Allen rushing prop difficult to recommend.

Preseason is different.

Washington already knows what several of its established running backs can provide. The coaching staff needs game repetitions from younger players who are fighting to earn a roster position.

Allen fits that description.

His physical style should become increasingly valuable as Friday night’s game moves into the second half and both teams begin using reserve defensive fronts.

A low total also supports the possibility of a run-heavy game plan.

If Daniels and other Washington starters sit after receiving extensive joint-practice work, the Commanders have little reason to expose their most important offensive pieces. Running the football protects the reserve quarterbacks and gives the coaching staff an opportunity to evaluate its offensive-line depth.

Allen has also been involved in Washington’s passing-game work during camp, including a touchdown reception from Marcus Mariota during an earlier practice.

The argument against the over is workload distribution.

Washington has six running backs competing for touches, including Croskey-Merritt, White, McNichols, Allen, Jerome Ford and Robert Henry Jr.

Allen could run effectively and still finish with only six or seven attempts.

But if Washington gives him 10-plus carries, his physical running style should put 40 yards within reach.

Projected Bet: Kaytron Allen Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 35.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 35.5 Points

• Low Preseason Total
• Reserve Quarterbacks
• Defensive Front Advantage

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The 35.5-point total doesn’t provide much margin for error, but the under remains the preferred side.

Washington’s starting offense looked sharp during Wednesday’s joint practice.

Daniels consistently found receivers, including Stefon Diggs and Treylon Burks, while Mariota produced multiple red-zone touchdown passes with the second unit.

The problem for over bettors is that many of Washington’s most dangerous offensive players might not participate extensively Friday.

Quinn indicated before the joint practice that players receiving heavy work in that setting could have their preseason game snaps reduced.

Miami plans to play more of its roster.

Hafley said Wednesday that the Dolphins’ youth makes game experience particularly valuable and that, barring changes, players should expect to participate.

That could benefit Miami early but still doesn’t guarantee a high-scoring game.

Washington’s defense controlled significant portions of Wednesday’s practice, repeatedly penetrating Miami’s backfield and disrupting both Willis and Ewers.

Once the game reaches the second half, offensive efficiency should decrease further.

Miami could rotate through Ewers, Miller and potentially Gronowski.

Washington has Mariota, Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis behind Daniels on its unofficial quarterback depth chart.

Backup offensive linemen will rotate.

Receivers will change.

Communication becomes more difficult.

Penalties become more frequent.

Drives stall.

The case against the under is Willis.

His mobility creates explosive-play possibilities that don’t exist with a traditional pocket quarterback. One broken play could become a 40-yard gain and dramatically change the scoring environment.

Miami’s young roster could also lead Hafley to play more aggressively than a veteran team normally would during the preseason.

Still, 35.5 points means a 20-16 final score would cash the over.

This matchup feels more likely to finish somewhere around 20-13.

Bet: Under 35.5 Points

The Matchup Context: Miami’s New Era Begins

Friday night represents the first game of Hafley’s tenure as Miami head coach.

The Dolphins aren’t approaching the preseason opener like a veteran team that simply wants to survive August.

Miami is young.

Miami has changed quarterbacks.

Miami has changed coaching staffs.

Miami has several significant position battles.

Hafley acknowledged that situation Wednesday, explaining that his roster doesn’t contain many established veterans who can simply take 30 joint-practice repetitions and then automatically sit out the preseason game. Miami needs collective game experience.

That makes this opener more meaningful for the Dolphins than it might be for Washington.

Willis needs to operate the offense in a real stadium.

Miami’s offensive line needs to communicate under game conditions.

Young receivers need to execute routes against unfamiliar coverage.

Defensive players need to tackle rather than simply “thud” ball carriers.

Coaches need to handle substitutions, challenges and clock situations.

Friday is the first opportunity to evaluate all of it.

Malik Willis Gets His First Dolphins Game Action

Willis is arguably the most important player in this entire matchup.

Miami has committed to building around him after his successful stint backing up Jordan Love in Green Bay.

The Dolphins’ official training-camp preview notes that Willis completed 79 percent of his passes during 11 appearances with Green Bay, averaged 10.9 yards per attempt and threw six touchdowns without an interception. He also added 261 rushing yards and three scores on the ground.

Those numbers explain Miami’s interest.

Friday provides the first opportunity to see whether that efficiency can translate into a starting role.

Willis doesn’t need to throw for 150 yards.

He probably won’t be on the field long enough.

The Dolphins need operational success.

Get the play communicated.

Identify Washington’s pressure.

Make the correct protection adjustments.

Complete the easy throws.

Use his legs when the opportunity appears.

Protect the football.

The final item might be the most important.

Willis threw an interception during Wednesday’s joint practice that Mike Sainristil returned for a touchdown.

Miami will want a cleaner performance Friday.

Can Miami’s Offensive Line Respond?

Wednesday’s joint practice exposed one of the Dolphins’ most important concerns.

Washington consistently created penetration.

Chaisson practically lived in Miami’s backfield during portions of practice. Payne forced Willis out of the pocket. Josephs pressured Ewers almost immediately on a play-action rollout.

Miami now gets an immediate rematch.

The Dolphins don’t necessarily need to dominate Washington’s defensive front.

They need improvement.

Willis’ athleticism can cover some protection problems, but Miami cannot build an offense that requires its quarterback to scramble every time he reaches the top of his drop.

The reserve offensive line becomes even more important once Ewers enters.

Ewers can move, but his game depends much more heavily on timing and downfield passing.

If Miami gives him a clean pocket, the Dolphins have enough speed at receiver to produce explosive plays.

If Washington consistently creates immediate pressure, Miami could struggle to reach even 17 points.

Washington’s Starters Have Already Made Their Statement

The Commanders may not need another significant look at their first-team offense Friday night.

Daniels was excellent Wednesday.

Washington’s official practice report described him as efficient throughout the session, with regular completions to Diggs, Chig Okonkwo and Burks. The Commanders also created multiple explosive plays in red-zone and team periods.

More importantly, the work came against another NFL team.

That was the purpose of the joint practice.

Washington got controlled competitive repetitions without exposing its stars to live tackling.

Quinn has therefore earned the flexibility to rest Daniels and other key players Friday.

If that happens, Mariota becomes the most experienced quarterback in Washington’s game-day rotation.

The veteran looked sharp during joint practice, throwing back-to-back red-zone touchdown passes to Jaden Bradley and Nick Nash.

Washington’s quarterback depth then continues with Hartman and Kaliakmanis.

Those deeper rotations are where Miami could begin gaining an advantage.

Washington’s Young Skill Players Get Their Opportunity

The most interesting Commanders offensive players Friday might not be the names regular-season fans immediately recognize.

Colson Yankoff has developed into one of Washington’s training-camp stories.

The converted tight end has consistently made catches during practice and is competing with Lawrence Cager and others for a roster spot. Washington’s coaching staff has given him a healthy target volume throughout camp.

Antonio Williams is another player worth monitoring.

He took advantage of additional practice opportunities when Washington’s established receivers received lighter workloads, producing multiple touchdowns and working with several quarterbacks.

Then there is Allen.

Preseason games are built for players in his situation.

Washington doesn’t need to see 18 carries from its most established running backs.

It needs to determine whether Allen can run through NFL contact, protect the quarterback, catch the football and contribute on special teams.

Those evaluations could determine the second half.

Miami’s Young Receivers Could Make the Difference

Caleb Douglas has emerged as one of the most interesting young players in Miami’s camp.

Hafley has praised Douglas for his consistency, and the rookie connected with Willis for a touchdown during Wednesday’s red-zone work before adding another 25-yard reception.

A.J. Henning is another receiver to watch.

Henning has consistently produced during training camp, including deep completions from both Willis and Ewers.

Miami also has Jalen Tolbert, Malik Washington, Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall Jr., Tahj Washington and other receivers competing for roles.

That competition should create aggressive play in the second half.

Every target matters.

A receiver who catches four passes for 60 yards could change his position on the depth chart.

A dropped third-down pass could do the opposite.

For Miami’s young roster, preseason production has genuine consequences.

Players to Watch

Malik Willis, QB, Dolphins: The Dolphins’ presumptive regular-season starter is expected to play. His command of the offense and ability to respond to Washington’s pressure will be more important than his final statistics.

Quinn Ewers, QB, Dolphins: Ewers enters his second NFL season after making three starts as a rookie. He has produced multiple explosive throws during camp and should receive an important evaluation opportunity behind Willis.

Caleb Douglas, WR, Dolphins: Douglas has earned praise for his consistency and connected with Willis multiple times during the joint practice, including a red-zone touchdown.

A.J. Henning, WR, Dolphins: Henning’s speed has produced deep completions throughout camp. He could become particularly dangerous once Miami’s reserve quarterbacks enter.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Commanders: If Daniels receives the night off or only minimal action, Mariota becomes Washington’s most experienced quarterback. He threw multiple touchdowns during Wednesday’s joint practice.

Sam Hartman, QB, Commanders: Hartman sits behind Daniels and Mariota on Washington’s unofficial depth chart and should receive important preseason repetitions as the Commanders evaluate their quarterback depth.

Kaytron Allen, RB, Commanders: Allen is competing in a crowded backfield and needs to maximize every preseason carry. His physical running style should become increasingly important late in the game.

Colson Yankoff, TE, Commanders: Yankoff has been one of Washington’s more consistent young pass-catchers during camp and is fighting for a roster spot in a deep tight end room.

Joshua Josephs, EDGE, Commanders: Josephs has repeatedly created problems for offensive linemen during camp and was in Ewers’ face during Wednesday’s joint practice.

Keys to the Game

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s first objective is protecting Willis.

The Dolphins know his athletic ability allows him to escape pressure, but they cannot rely on scrambling as their offensive system.

The offensive line must respond after Washington’s defensive front controlled significant portions of Wednesday’s practice.

Second, Miami needs Willis to protect the football.

The Sainristil pick-six during joint practice demonstrated exactly how quickly one poor decision can change a game.

Third, the Dolphins need their young receivers to create separation.

Douglas has been consistent.

Henning has provided explosive plays.

Ewers has shown he is willing to attack downfield.

Those elements could produce Miami’s biggest second-half advantage.

Defensively, Miami needs to control Washington’s running game.

If Daniels and Washington’s starting receivers sit, the Commanders should become more dependent on their running backs and short passing game.

Winning first down would force Washington’s reserve quarterbacks into obvious passing situations.

Finally, Miami needs clean execution.

This is Hafley’s first preseason game as Dolphins head coach. Substitutions, penalties and special teams will reveal how effectively the new staff has prepared a young roster.

Washington Commanders

Washington’s first priority is continuing the defensive intensity it demonstrated Wednesday.

The Commanders consistently disrupted Miami’s offense with pressure and pursuit.

They need to do it again.

However, containing Willis requires more discipline than simply attacking the quarterback.

Edge rushers cannot fly past him and create open scrambling lanes.

Washington’s defensive front needs to collapse the pocket while maintaining leverage.

Offensively, the Commanders need to establish the running game.

Allen and the other reserve backs can take pressure off Washington’s quarterbacks and keep the offense in manageable third-down situations.

The Commanders also need their young pass-catchers to continue producing.

Yankoff, Williams, Bradley and other roster hopefuls have created positive moments during camp. Friday is their opportunity to demonstrate those plays translate when tackling becomes live.

Finally, Washington must win special teams.

Preseason games with totals around 35 points can be decided by one long return, missed field goal or coverage mistake.

The Commanders’ first unofficial depth chart lists Jake Moody and Drew Stevens in a kicking competition, adding another important evaluation to Friday night’s game.

Betting Prediction

Miami being favored by 3.5 points on the road makes sense when the expected playing-time situation is considered.

The Dolphins are young, installing a new system and planning to use Willis.

Hafley has made it clear that Miami needs preseason repetitions and that most of the roster should expect to play unless plans change.

Washington already received substantial competitive work from its starters Wednesday.

That creates a reasonable expectation that Quinn will be more protective of Daniels, Diggs, McLaurin and other established players.

Washington’s backups could still make the spread uncomfortable.

Mariota provides substantial NFL experience, and the Commanders clearly have defensive depth capable of disrupting Miami’s offensive line.

But Miami should have a greater incentive to treat Friday’s game like an actual developmental contest.

Willis’ mobility gives the Dolphins an early advantage.

Ewers’ experience gives them another opportunity after Willis exits.

If Ewers receives substantial second-quarter and third-quarter action, Miami could maintain offensive stability longer than Washington.

The total is more difficult.

35.5 is low.

A 20-16 score goes over.

One defensive touchdown changes everything.

One long kickoff return changes everything.

Willis breaking a 50-yard scramble changes everything.

But the personnel rotations still favor the under.

Once both teams get deep into their quarterback and offensive-line depth charts, sustained touchdown drives should become difficult.

The Verdict

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Commanders 13

Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5

Total Pick: Under 35.5

Miami’s willingness to give its new starting quarterback actual preseason work provides the biggest reason to back the Dolphins.

Willis needs these repetitions.

He is learning to lead a new offense on a roster filled with young players, and Hafley has made it clear that Miami cannot approach August like a veteran championship team that simply wants to protect its starters.

Washington is in a different position.

Daniels looked outstanding during Wednesday’s joint practice, and the Commanders’ defense dominated stretches of the session. Washington already accomplished much of what teams hope to accomplish in a preseason opener without subjecting its established players to full tackling.

That should make the Commanders more comfortable turning Friday night’s game over to their reserves.

Miami’s advantage should come from quarterback play.

Willis has enough mobility to turn failed pass protections into positive plays.

Ewers has legitimate NFL starting experience and has consistently attacked downfield throughout training camp.

Washington has Mariota, but once the Commanders move deeper into Hartman and Kaliakmanis, Miami should have an opportunity to take control.

Expect Washington’s defense to make life difficult for Willis early.

Expect Miami to respond better than it did during the joint practice.

Expect both teams to lean heavily on younger players after halftime.

And expect scoring opportunities to become increasingly difficult as the fourth quarter approaches.

Final Score Prediction: Miami Dolphins 20, Washington Commanders 13

Best Bet: Under 35.5

Against the Spread: Miami Dolphins -3.5

Top Player Prop: Malik Willis Over 29.5 Rushing Yards