Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots 2026 Preseason Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Time: 7:30 PM ET

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

TV: Patriots Preseason Network / WBZ-TV in New England

Tickets: As low as $17

Betting Line: Indianapolis Colts -2.5

Over/Under: 37.5 Points

The Indianapolis Colts open their 2026 preseason Thursday night against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in one of the most intriguing quarterback-evaluation games of the opening week.

Neither team plans to feature its established starting quarterback. Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen has confirmed Daniel Jones will not play, while Anthony Richardson Sr. will start and handle the entire first half before Riley Leonard takes over for the second half. Most of Indianapolis’ established starters are also expected to sit or receive extremely limited action.

New England is following a similar strategy after getting substantial work from its top players during the teams’ joint practice. Head coach Mike Vrabel said he did not anticipate Drake Maye playing Thursday, which should leave veteran Tommy DeVito and seventh-round rookie Behren Morton to handle the quarterback duties.

That sets up a preseason matchup driven primarily by quarterback depth, roster battles and second-half execution rather than the regular-season star power of Jones and Maye.

Indianapolis enters as a 2.5-point favorite at the line provided for this preview. The total was listed at 37.5, although bettors should check the number before wagering: a FanDuel market snapshot on August 12 still had Indianapolis -2.5 but showed the total at 36.5, evidence that the number has already been moving.

Top Four Prop Bets

Preseason player props can be limited or unavailable at individual sportsbooks. The numbers below should be treated as projected betting targets unless specifically offered by your sportsbook. Always verify the live number before wagering.

Prop Bet #1: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 99.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Richardson Over 99.5 Passing Yards

• Full First Half
• Backup QB Competition
• Extended Opportunity

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Anthony Richardson Sr. may receive more meaningful playing time than almost any veteran quarterback on Thursday’s preseason schedule.

Steichen has already established the plan: Richardson starts and plays the entire first half. Riley Leonard then takes over for the final two quarters.

That workload makes a projected passing total around 100 yards attractive.

Richardson doesn’t need to be spectacular. If Indianapolis runs approximately 25 to 30 offensive plays during the opening half, he could approach 15 or more passing attempts.

Short completions, screens and play-action throws could be enough.

More importantly, this isn’t meaningless playing time for Richardson. He and Leonard have been splitting second- and third-team practice repetitions while competing to become Jones’ primary backup. Richardson therefore has every reason to demonstrate that he can operate the offense efficiently and consistently.

There is an argument against the over.

Indianapolis will rest many starters, which means Richardson will be operating with reserve offensive linemen and receivers. New England could also make passing difficult if the Patriots generate consistent pressure.

Richardson’s mobility could additionally reduce his passing volume if he decides to escape the pocket instead of forcing throws.

Still, two full quarters should create enough opportunities.

Projected Bet: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 99.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Riley Leonard Over 89.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Leonard Over 89.5 Passing Yards

• Entire Second Half
• QB2 Competition
• Late-Game Passing Volume

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Riley Leonard gets the second half to himself, creating another attractive volume-based preseason target.

Indianapolis drafted Leonard with the expectation that he could develop behind Jones, and Thursday represents an important opportunity to evaluate his progress under actual game conditions.

Leonard and Richardson have shared backup repetitions throughout training camp. Leonard has flashed during practices, including a touchdown connection with Eli Pancol and additional productive work with Indianapolis’ second-team offense.

The second half could actually produce more passing opportunities than the first.

Preseason games frequently become increasingly dependent on quarterbacks because reserve offensive lines struggle to generate consistent rushing lanes. If New England forces Indianapolis into several third-and-medium situations, Leonard should have opportunities to accumulate yardage underneath.

The Patriots’ depth at cornerback is another factor.

New England entered the preseason opener dealing with several issues in its secondary. Christian Gonzalez missed the Colts joint practice after coming down hard in practice, Charles Woods had missed several sessions and Carlton Davis III was also held out of the joint workout. That leaves players such as Kindle Vildor, Kobee Minor and Karon Prunty competing for significant preseason snaps.

The argument against Leonard’s over is offensive efficiency.

If Indianapolis spends the fourth quarter protecting a lead, the Colts could lean heavily on their reserve running backs instead of letting Leonard throw 15 or 20 times.

Turnovers or stalled possessions could also keep the passing total low.

Nevertheless, having an entire half creates considerable opportunity.

Projected Bet: Riley Leonard Over 89.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Terrell Jennings Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Jennings Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

• Significant Workload
• Physical Running Style
• Patriots RB Competition

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Terrell Jennings could become one of the most important New England offensive players Thursday night.

The Patriots already know what they have in Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson. The larger question involves the running backs competing behind them.

Jennings returned from the PUP list during training camp and immediately re-entered that competition. Patriots.com specifically identified him as a player poised to receive a significant workload against Indianapolis.

That makes rushing volume the strongest reason to target his over.

Jennings is a physical runner who should fit the style of offense New England wants to use with DeVito and Morton behind center.

Running the football also helps protect those quarterbacks.

Rather than asking Morton to consistently attack downfield during his first NFL preseason game, New England can rely on Jennings, Jam Miller and the rest of its reserve backs to keep the offense in manageable situations.

Jennings’ competition for carries creates the biggest risk.

Seventh-round rookie Jam Miller, Lan Larison and other backs also need preseason opportunities. New England isn’t going to give Jennings 25 carries when the coaching staff needs to evaluate the entire room.

But even 8-to-10 carries could give Jennings an opportunity to approach 40 rushing yards.

Projected Bet: Terrell Jennings Over 39.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 37.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 37.5 Points

• Starting QBs Sitting
• Reserve Offensive Lines
• Conservative Preseason Approach

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The under could be the strongest overall betting angle.

Jones will not play for Indianapolis.

Maye isn’t expected to play for New England.

Most established Colts starters are expected to sit, and New England’s first-team players already received substantial competitive work during the joint-practice portion of the week.

That means the majority of Thursday night’s offensive possessions will belong to Richardson, Leonard, DeVito and Morton.

There is certainly enough quarterback talent to produce touchdowns, but preseason scoring is about much more than quarterbacks.

Reserve offensive lines frequently commit penalties.

Receivers and quarterbacks don’t always share timing.

Young players miss assignments.

Drives stall in the red zone.

Coaches become more interested in evaluating situations than maximizing points.

The case against the under begins with Richardson.

His ability to produce explosive plays either through the air or with his legs creates scoring opportunities that traditional backup quarterbacks don’t always provide.

New England’s receiver depth is also interesting.

Second-year receivers Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III are expected to see considerable action, and both have shown chemistry with DeVito during camp. Williams even connected with DeVito on a deep completion during the joint practice against Indianapolis.

Still, 37.5 provides enough room for a game in which both teams reach the high teens.

Bet: Under 37.5 Points

The Matchup Context: Quarterback Auditions Take Center Stage

This game is much more important for Richardson, Leonard, DeVito and Morton than it is for Jones or Maye.

Jones enters the season established as Indianapolis’ QB1 and won’t play in at least the Colts’ first two preseason games. Steichen wants to avoid unnecessary risk while using the exhibition schedule to determine who should back him up.

Richardson gets the first opportunity.

The former first-round selection possesses extraordinary physical talent, but Thursday is about something more fundamental.

Can he consistently operate the offense?

Can he make the correct read?

Can he protect the football?

Can he turn second-and-8 into third-and-3 rather than third-and-12?

Can he avoid the mistakes that kill preseason drives?

If Richardson looks comfortable for two quarters, Indianapolis will leave Foxborough feeling considerably better about its quarterback depth.

Leonard receives the same audition after halftime.

The Colts’ backup competition has remained open throughout training camp, with Richardson and Leonard splitting repetitions behind Jones.

The game environment provides Indianapolis with information practice cannot completely replicate.

New England’s Quarterback Evaluation

New England has significantly less uncertainty at QB1.

Maye is the unquestioned centerpiece of the Patriots’ offense after helping New England finish 14-3 in 2025 and reach Super Bowl LX. The Patriots finished last season third in total offense and second in scoring at 28.8 points per game.

None of that matters Thursday night if Maye remains on the sideline.

Instead, DeVito gets another opportunity to secure his position behind Maye, while Morton receives valuable developmental snaps.

Morton was New England’s seventh-round selection in the 2026 NFL Draft after playing at Texas Tech. The Patriots have been encouraged by his quick processing and release in short passing concepts, although his downfield consistency remains a developmental area.

That makes Thursday particularly interesting.

Morton doesn’t need to produce a spectacular stat line.

He needs to show that the game isn’t moving too quickly.

Completing checkdowns, identifying blitzes, avoiding turnovers and getting New England lined up correctly will matter far more to the coaching staff than a highlight-reel touchdown.

Indianapolis’ Backup Running Back Competition

Jonathan Taylor doesn’t need a preseason audition.

The players behind him do.

Indianapolis lists DJ Giddens ahead of Seth McGowan on its first unofficial depth chart, with additional backs competing deeper in the rotation.

Giddens should have an opportunity to strengthen his hold on the backup role.

Preseason running back battles can be decided by more than rushing statistics.

Pass protection matters.

Ball security matters.

Receiving matters.

Special teams matter.

A running back who averages only 3.5 yards per carry but consistently identifies blitz pickups can improve his roster standing more than someone who breaks one 30-yard run but misses protection assignments.

That makes every possession important.

New England’s Young Receivers Get Their Opportunity

One of the more entertaining position groups Thursday could be New England’s reserve receivers.

The Patriots have established veterans ahead of them, including A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, creating intense competition for the remaining targets and roster positions.

Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III are two names to watch closely.

New England expects both to receive significant preseason snaps. Williams’ speed has impressed Vrabel, while Chism has continued building on the strong summer that helped him earn a roster role as an undrafted rookie the previous year.

Their chemistry with DeVito is particularly important.

Backup quarterbacks frequently establish relationships with reserve receivers because they spend so much practice time together.

That familiarity can become a major advantage in preseason games.

An undrafted receiver who understands exactly when DeVito expects him to break on a route can outperform a more talented player who hasn’t received the same repetitions.

Players to Watch

Anthony Richardson Sr., QB, Colts: Richardson has the entire first half to make his case for the backup quarterback job. His combination of arm strength and mobility gives Indianapolis the most explosive quarterback on the field Thursday.

Riley Leonard, QB, Colts: Leonard controls the offense after halftime. His competition with Richardson gives every second-half possession additional importance.

DJ Giddens, RB, Colts: Giddens enters the preseason listed behind Jonathan Taylor and narrowly ahead of the other reserve running backs. A strong opening game could help him establish himself as Indianapolis’ primary backup.

Anthony Gould, WR/Returner, Colts: Gould appears atop Indianapolis’ return depth and brings legitimate speed to special teams. The preseason gives him an opportunity to demonstrate his value in multiple phases.

Tommy DeVito, QB, Patriots: With Maye expected to sit, DeVito becomes the most experienced New England quarterback available. His familiarity with Williams and Chism could help the Patriots create several explosive passing plays.

Behren Morton, QB, Patriots: The seventh-round rookie gets his first preseason opportunity. His quick-game accuracy and decision-making will be closely evaluated.

Terrell Jennings, RB, Patriots: Jennings could receive one of New England’s largest workloads as the Patriots evaluate the running backs behind Stevenson and Henderson.

Kyle Williams, WR, Patriots: Williams possesses the speed to create one of the game’s biggest plays and has already demonstrated chemistry with DeVito during joint practices.

Keys to the Game

Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis needs Richardson to play efficient football.

The Colts don’t require five explosive passes or 75 rushing yards from their former first-round pick.

They need consistency.

Richardson must protect the football, move the chains and demonstrate command of the offense.

Leonard faces the same challenge after halftime.

Indianapolis also needs its reserve offensive line to protect both quarterbacks. Communication becomes increasingly difficult as substitutions accumulate, and one missed assignment can destroy an otherwise productive drive.

The running back competition is another key.

Giddens and McGowan need to show they can produce without Taylor while also handling their pass-protection responsibilities.

Defensively, Indianapolis should pressure Morton’s decision-making when the rookie enters.

The Colts don’t need complicated blitz packages. Simply forcing Morton to process the defense quickly could create sacks, turnovers or incompletions.

Special teams could ultimately become Indianapolis’ biggest advantage.

Preseason games often come down to field position, coverage units and kicking execution rather than offensive talent.

New England Patriots

New England’s first objective is controlling Richardson’s mobility.

Even if Indianapolis doesn’t call designed quarterback runs, Richardson can create explosive plays when protection breaks down.

Patriots edge defenders must remain disciplined.

Creating pressure means little if Richardson escapes and turns third-and-9 into a 20-yard scramble.

Offensively, New England needs to establish Jennings and its reserve rushing attack.

A productive running game protects DeVito and Morton and prevents Indianapolis from attacking on obvious passing downs.

The Patriots should also attempt to create favorable matchups for Williams and Chism.

Both receivers have shown they can produce during camp, and Thursday gives them extended snaps against Indianapolis’ reserve defensive backs.

Finally, New England must avoid turnovers.

With a relatively low total and two teams resting numerous starters, one short field could determine the entire game.

Betting Prediction

Indianapolis laying 2.5 points on the road might initially seem surprising.

Gillette Stadium provides New England with home-field familiarity, and Vrabel has a deep roster coming off a 14-win season.

But preseason betting isn’t about which regular-season roster is stronger.

It’s about who is actually playing.

Indianapolis has a clear quarterback plan.

Richardson gets two quarters.

Leonard gets two quarters.

Both have spent the entire summer in Steichen’s system and both are competing for something meaningful.

New England should counter with DeVito and Morton.

DeVito provides enough experience to keep the Patriots competitive, but the transition to Morton could become the crucial stretch of the game.

Indianapolis’ strongest opportunity to cover may come during the fourth quarter when Leonard is operating against New England’s deepest defensive reserves while Morton receives some of his first NFL game action.

The total is more complicated.

The original 37.5 is attractive for an under wager because neither starting quarterback is expected to participate.

However, the market had already moved down to 36.5 at one FanDuel snapshot by August 12.

That one point matters considerably in a preseason game.

At 37.5, the under remains the preferred side.

At 36.5 or lower, the value becomes significantly smaller.

The Verdict

Prediction: Colts 20, Patriots 16

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -2.5

Total Pick: Under 37.5

Indianapolis has the more appealing quarterback setup for this particular preseason matchup.

Richardson and Leonard each know they will receive an entire half, allowing them to prepare for defined roles instead of wondering when they will enter or exit the game.

That structure should help Indianapolis offensively.

Richardson’s athleticism could create problems for New England during the first half, particularly if the Patriots use younger defenders who become overly aggressive rushing the passer.

Leonard then provides the Colts with another mobile quarterback after halftime.

New England should remain competitive behind DeVito, especially when Williams and Chism are on the field.

Jennings also gives the Patriots a physical running option who could help control possession and keep Indianapolis’ offense off the field.

But the fourth quarter favors the Colts slightly.

Leonard’s experience and mobility should allow Indianapolis to produce one late scoring drive, while Morton’s first NFL preseason appearance could include enough inconsistency to prevent New England from answering.

Expect a competitive, defense-oriented game featuring several promising performances from young players but relatively few sustained touchdown drives.

Final Score Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 20, New England Patriots 16

Best Bet: Under 37.5

Against the Spread: Indianapolis Colts -2.5

Top Player Prop: Anthony Richardson Sr. Over 99.5 Passing Yards