If Carson Wentz Wins, What Happens to the Vikings’ QB J.J. McCarthy?

The Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback situation has always carried tension, but Sunday in London makes it unavoidable. Carson Wentz, signed in late August, will make his third start behind a decimated offensive line against one of the NFL’s best defenses. Rookie J.J. McCarthy is sidelined again with a high ankle sprain. If Wentz wins — in these conditions — the question looms larger than ever: what becomes of McCarthy?

Wentz faces toughest test yet

The circumstances could hardly be more difficult. Minnesota will be without three starting offensive linemen: center Ryan Kelly (concussion), right tackle Brian O’Neill (knee), and left guard Donovan Jackson (wrist). Backup center Michael Jurgens (hamstring) is also out, forcing Blake Brandel to start at center despite never playing the position in college or the NFL. Undrafted rookie Joe Huber will line up at guard, while journeyman Justin Skule fills in at tackle.

Across from them is a Cleveland defense that ranks first in yards per play allowed (3.9), first in first downs allowed per game (14.2), and third in sack rate (11.4%). At its core is Myles Garrett, the four-time All-Pro who has posted double-digit sacks in seven straight seasons. He already has four through four games, putting him on pace for his fifth consecutive year with at least 14. Against a Minnesota line missing 60% of its starters, the matchup looks lopsided.

And yet, if Wentz finds a way to win, it strengthens his case. In two starts, he has completed 66% of his passes (44 of 66) for 523 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions — good for a passer rating of 98.2. Those numbers compare favorably to McCarthy’s limited sample before the injury, where the rookie posted a 62% completion rate with one touchdown and three interceptions. Should Wentz guide Minnesota past the Browns’ front in London, his momentum builds. With McCarthy still sidelined, head coach Kevin O’Connell would face a reality where the veteran gives the team its best chance to win in a division where the margin is razor thin.

A rookie plan collides with a win-now roster

This is not the typical rebuilding situation where patience with a rookie quarterback is easily sold. Minnesota is one year removed from a 14-3 season and has invested heavily to chase another playoff run. According to Over the Cap, the Vikings are spending a league-high $345 million in cash this year, with the NFL’s ninth-oldest roster by snap-weighted age. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell are both entering their fourth season together, still searching for their first playoff win.

The Vikings’ decision to move on from Sam Darnold after he helped deliver that 14-3 season is already under the microscope. Darnold is completing 70% of his passes for Seattle with a passer rating of 106.4, while Daniel Jones — Minnesota’s other 2023 option — has the Colts ranked third in EPA per play. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense sits 29th in the same metric. That contrast underscores just how risky it was to hand the job to McCarthy so soon.

The rookie’s contract only adds urgency. Teams get their best roster flexibility when a quarterback is playing on a rookie deal; in 2023, eight of the top 10 teams in cap-adjusted wins had quarterbacks making less than $10 million. Every week McCarthy sits is a week lost in maximizing that window. If Wentz keeps winning, the Vikings risk burning a year of McCarthy’s rookie contract without learning whether he can actually be the franchise’s future.

Minnesota has been here before. After Case Keenum’s 13-3 season in 2017, the team pivoted to Kirk Cousins. Last year, they moved on from Darnold. If Wentz proves capable of delivering wins, history may repeat — a short-term solution crowding out a long-term plan.

For McCarthy, the question isn’t just when he returns from injury. It’s whether the job waiting for him will still be his at all.