Bengals vs. Steelers Could Turn on How Often Joe Burrow Gets the Ball

The Cincinnati Bengals don’t need a new answer on offense. They need to get Joe Burrow on the field often enough for the one they already have to work.

The Bengals and Steelers are both 6–2 entering Sunday night’s game at Paycor Stadium. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30–27, and a second win would give the Steelers the season sweep. Cincinnati comes home after beating Atlanta 34–17 in Madrid, a game that showed both how hard it is to keep up with Burrow and how an opponent can make Cincinnati wait for its next possession.

Pittsburgh can make this game shorter

Atlanta rushed for 157 yards on 24 attempts. The Falcons scored on their first two drives, and the Bengals had to work through that early stretch before their offense took over. Cincinnati can live with some rushing yards if it ends possessions before they turn into touchdowns. The problem comes when those yards leave the opponent facing third-and-two instead of third-and-seven. Pittsburgh can run, use play-action or give Aaron Rodgers an immediate answer underneath in the shorter situation. Cincinnati’s pass rush gets a clearer chance to affect the play in the longer one.

Pittsburgh enters the matchup averaging 31 minutes and 23 seconds of possession. The number to watch Sunday is how many of those minutes come on drives that carry into Cincinnati territory. A long drive that ends with a punt can still matter if it pins Burrow deep. A long touchdown drive can take away a Cincinnati possession and raise the value of the next one. A few drives like that can turn a game between two 6–2 teams into a fourth-quarter contest decided by a single protection breakdown.

The first meeting showed how little room there is for error

Cincinnati had a chance in the closing minute in Pittsburgh. Derrick Harmon got to Burrow, forced a fumble and Sebastian Joseph-Day recovered it with 44 seconds left. The Bengals were down only three, and that one play took away their chance to answer. The Steelers enter the rematch with 26 sacks. The threat is real whenever Cincinnati’s protection has to hold up long enough for a deeper route to develop.

That’s where Zac Taylor can help Burrow before Pittsburgh gets to third down. A quick completion to Ja’Marr Chase on first down can force the corner to tackle in space. A run against a favorable box can make the defensive front play both possibilities on the next snap. Cincinnati can still take a deep shot when the matchup is there. The point of earning manageable downs is to choose when to take that shot, with a better chance that the defense has to respect the other options.

The most important series may come after a Bengals score

In Madrid, Atlanta cut the lead to 24–17 in the third quarter. Burrow answered with a touchdown pass to Tee Higgins, and the Falcons didn’t score again. That sequence is a good model for Sunday. If Cincinnati scores and the defense follows with a quick stop, Burrow gets another chance to extend the lead before Pittsburgh can get comfortable with its run game. If Pittsburgh answers with a long scoring drive, it can keep running and make Cincinnati play on its terms.

Cincinnati can also help itself on special teams. If the defense forces a punt near midfield, a return or a touchback can change the choices available to Taylor on the next series. Starting with enough room to run or throw on first down makes it harder for Pittsburgh to dictate the protection matchup.

I give Cincinnati the edge at home. The Bengals are averaging 30 points per game, and their offense can make Pittsburgh abandon its preferred pace if the defense gives Burrow enough chances early. Watch the first two downs of the Steelers’ opening drives. If Cincinnati is putting Rodgers in obvious passing situations, the Bengals have a good chance to make Pittsburgh chase the game. If those drives keep reaching third-and-short, the rematch could come down to one possession again.