Preseason is behind us, rosters for all 32 NFL teams are being finalized, fans are excited about their favorite team’s chances this season, and we are knee-deep in fantasy football draft season. A million analysts are out there sharing their insights and player rankings (don’t worry, I’ll be dropping my rankings soon), but I wanted to be different. There won’t be tons of raw numbers, analytics, and advanced stats (as I have sorted through all the muck so you don’t have to), but you will still get sound guidance for your draft. Let’s dive into my quick tips for your 2024 Fantasy Football draft!
I had trouble figuring out how else I could say this, so I just decided to say it (sort of). This one is simple – don’t get stuck just drafting based solely on where guys fall on your draft board. Sticking to the pre-draft board, no matter what, is one surefire way to ruin your draft. Rankings are supposed to be a helpful guide for your draft – not meant to be taken as gospel. If you only have one starting receiver but four running backs, you shouldn’t be taking another ‘back just because he might be ranked higher than the next-best available receiver on the board. Don’t assume you will be able to trade that positional depth after the draft. As you fill out your roster, your board and positional priorities should change throughout the draft.
Good players on below average offenses generally have lower point floors and ceilings; good players on good offenses generally have higher point floors and ceilings. Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson was widely seen as a potential top-ten player at his position going into last season; Aaron Rodgers got hurt in week one, and Wilson’s value dropped along with the rest of that offence. Yes, Wilson was a potential top 10-12 fantasy wide receiver on talent and volume, but having guys like Zach Wilson and Trevor Siemian throw him the ball instead of Rodgers severely capped the amount of quality targets he was getting and his opportunities to score touchdowns. Conversely, players working with an elite QB or in a fantasy friendly offense like Miami’s will see their value get a slight boost because they’re in a good situation.
In every draft, an owner pulls a Pete Carroll and picks a player way earlier than they should be taken. Don’t be that person. Let it be someone else. A big part of having a successful draft is identifying and landing potential high-end talent at below-market prices. It was a no-brainer to select Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill last season, but taking a shot on a player like Jakobi Meyers or Raheem Mostert late towards the end of your draft is how titles are won. Also, don’t draft a defense or kicker until your last two picks. That should be a fantasy football commandment, but I still see way too many people taking defense and kickers too early.
There will be runs on different positions at different times. That’s ok! Stick to your draft strategy, but be flexible. There’s a good amount of depth this year at tight end, and you can land a potential high end quarterback in the 9th round (or later). Missed out on one of the top running backs? Luckily, there’s a good amount of options in the middle rounds, and plenty of sleepers. Oh, and wide receiver depth is as good as it’s ever been.
As I mentioned in the intro, there are a million analysts out there, all throwing analytics and advanced stats at you from every angle. It can be easy to get overwhelmed and get confused if you are new to fantasy football or the world of football analytics. Just stick to your game plan, stay flexible, don’t get cute, and…
The Draft is the best time of year! The season hasn’t started yet, so everyone is full of hope and excitement. You haven’t lost both your starting running backs by week five, you didn’t lose a game due to a stat correction, and sand-less managers have vetoed none of your trades. Life is good. Fantasy football is supposed to be fun, so keep that in mind! I hope all your sleepers are available at a discount, your rivals take kickers early, and the player you want is always on the board. Happy drafting!
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