NFL Week One: Preview and Predictions for every game

NFL Week One Preview and Predictions

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

At stake is an AFC Championship rematch and another head-to-head showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson; Kansas City leads their previous head-to-head encounters 4-1. Will Derrick Henry help Baltimore turn around the script, or will the Chiefs begin their possible three-peat in style? Last season, Kansas City lost on Thursday Night Football due to dropped passes; this one promises cleaner play as Kansas City outwits Baltimore late in the second half.

Pick: Kansas City -3

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Kansas City -3

• AFC Championship Rematch
• Chiefs at home
• Mahomes to outplay Lamar Jackson

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Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) 

Football in Brazil will provide plenty of excitement, with Jalen Hurts facing Jordan Love while new running backs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs take their turns at bat. Additionally, both teams feature new defensive coordinators—Vic Fangio from Green Bay and Jeff Hafley from Philadelphia, respectively—neither of whom was able to stop either run or pass last season; expect this game to end up as a shootout, likely ending with Green Bay taking victory by scoring on a walk-off field goal, should Green Bay possessing the right kicker!

Pick: Green Bay +2.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Packers +2.5

• Expect a shootout
• Game in Brazil
• Jordan Love to have a big game

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) 

Two teams that have experienced quarterback controversy this off-season square off. Mike Tomlin selected Russell Wilson, but it remains possible both Wilson and Fields could play  for Pittsburgh. Atlanta will go with Kirk Cousins with first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr watching. Atlanta posted 5-3 S/U home records while Pittsburgh finished 5-4 road records; therefore it seems wiser to trust Tomlin to make the right call here. But I like Kirk Cousins and the Falcon’s offensive weapons to pull out a close game late.

Pick: Falcons -3

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Falcons -3

• Cousins will have a big game
• Falcons at Home
• Steelers have QB issues

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Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4.5) 

Williams had mixed results in the preseason, but his playmaking potential remains high with an improved supporting cast that includes Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze (first-round pick). While their defense still needs work, second-year quarterback Will Levis will make some plays in a new offense run by first-year coach Brian Callahan. Expect the Bears defense to be the difference.

Pick: Chicago -4.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bears -4.5

• Bears defense will be the difference
• Bears at Home
• Titans have QB issues

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6) 

Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs this offseason, but Josh Allen still boasts a fully rebuilt receiving corps made up of rookie Keon Coleman and veteran Curtis Samuel. Last season the Bills went 8-2 S/U and 5-5 ATS at home; these numbers will be put to the test against Kyler Murray, who has posted a 17-14 road career record that outshines home performance by Arizona (2-7 S/U on the road in 2023).

Pick: Bills -6

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bills -6

• Bills are the better team
• Bills at Home
• Can Kyler Murray be consistent

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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) 

The biggest line in Week 1 features the Bengals at home, as Joe Burrow and the starters received more preseason playing time this year than ever. That isn’t surprising, considering that Cincinnati has lost four out of the past five Week 1 contests (they won once against Minnesota in overtime in 2021). On the road, Jerod Mayo begins his tenure for the New England Patriots; the key to their success will be avoiding turnovers on the road. If Chase plays the Bengals when easy, if he doesn’t play they still win easy.

Pick: Bengals -9

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Bengals -9

• Patriots offense is bad
• Bengals at Home
• Look for Burrow to have a big game

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Houston Texans (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts 

C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson will square off in this second-year quarterback matchup, allowing Richardson to silence critics after an uneven preseason performance. Houston is riding high after winning their previous two meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium; Stroud kept his momentum from last season going with a TD late in the fourth quarter helping the Texans put away the Colts. The Texans are clearly the better team in this game.

Pick: Texans -2.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Texans -2.5

• Richardson is not an NFL QB
• Colts at Home
• Look for Stroud to have a big game

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3) 

In September, the Dolphins posted an 8-2 record and averaged 31 points per game under third-year coach Mike McDaniel, increasing to 9-3 S/U and 37 points at home. Their fast start should help Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill reconnect quickly, and their defense should remain healthy. Can Trevor Lawrence turn this game into an all-out shootout and make it the highest-scoring contest of the week?

Pick: Dolphins -3

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Dolphins -3

• Dolphins are great in September
• Dolphinsat Home
• Dolphins win a shootout

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

The Panthers kick off their second season under Bryce Young and new coach Dave Canales with an offense ranked 31st in terms of points per game in 2023. Meanwhile, New Orleans Saints have won four out of the past five meetings at home, and three of those games have been decided by three points or less; look for Chase Young to make his New Orleans debut count!

Pick: Saints -4

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Saints -4

• Saints are the better team
• Saints at Home
• Panthers offensively are bad

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Minnesota Vikings (-1) at New York Giants

The Vikings will start veteran Sam Darnold on the road for Minnesota, whose 5-4 S/U mark last season on road games was impressive. While much of the focus for the New York Giants revolves around quarterback Daniel Jones and first-round pick Malik Nabers, new defensive coordinator Shane Bowen could prove pivotal in an unpredictable matchup; Darnold boasts an impressive 75.7 passer rating in road contests.

Pick: Giants +1

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Giants +1

• Two bad teams
• Giants at Home
• Expect low scoring game

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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) 

Jim Harbaugh has returned to the NFL, and his teaming up with Justin Herbert should rejuvenate both franchises. Antonio Pierce is making strides toward this same end in Las Vegas. In their previous meeting—where Oakland defeated them 63-21 and led to Brandon Staley’s dismissal—both teams may remember it well; perhaps that battle will come down to one final drive, with Harbaugh leading his Chargers team to an unexpected last-second triumphant finish. Or perhaps the Chargers are just the better team and win easily.

Pick: Chargers -3.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Chargers -3.5

• Herbert to be the difference
• Chargers at Home
• Expect high scoring game

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Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)

Nix will make his road debut against Seattle and first-year coach Mike Macdonald on Sunday. The Broncos enjoyed a +4 turnover margin last season, so if they can cause a few turnovers, an upset is not out of the realm of possibility. I think Bo Nix surprises everybody with a big game.

Pick: Broncos +5.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Broncos +5.5

• Bo Nix will have a big game
• Seahawks at Home
• Seahawks new coach

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Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) 

No team provokes more Week 1 overreactions than Dallas, and this game will certainly not be an exception. The Browns made the playoffs last season and posted an 8-1 S/U mark at home. Deshaun Watson has just as much at stake from a perception standpoint as Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb ended his holdout, which could skew the line before kickoff. This is a game where I like the small dog.

Pick: Dallas +2.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Cowboys +2.5

• Watson to struggle
• Browns at Home
• Prescott will have a big day

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Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) 

Jayden Daniels will make his first start for the Commanders after an impressive preseason and will face Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Washington has become a popular playoff sleeper – something Tampa Bay showed last season – while Mayfield did not fare so well at home with an 88.2 rating, 10 touchdown passes, and seven interceptions against them last year; that could force rookie errors from Daniels on Washington.

Pick: Washington +3.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Commanders +3.5

• Daniels to play well
• Bucs at Home
• Close game

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Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The Lions have emerged as an attractive Super Bowl pick, although their initial novelty may have worn off against Matthew Stafford. Now, we will find out how well the Los Angeles Rams interior defense holds up without Aaron Donald; I expect the Lions to attempt to run the ball easily to test the Rams interior defense.

Pick: Lions -3.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Lions -3.5

• Lions to pound the rock
• Lions at Home
• Can Stafford play big

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New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) 

Rodgers plays against an opponent he knows well, yet the 49ers had preseason drama to contend with. Christian McCaffrey suffered an injury to his calf, Trent Williams held out, and Brandon Aiyuk sought trade partners. Could any of this weigh over them against an explosive New York team that may arrive late but can make its mark? Rodgers keeps it close, but the 49ers eventually get the stop in crunch time.

Pick: 49ers -3.5

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Bet Jets -3.5

• Jets to keep ot close
• 49ers at Home
• Injuries could affect the Niners

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