The 2024 NFL season kicks off with an AFC Championship game rematch between the Ravens and the Chiefs. You have two elite Head Coaches and two elite quarterbacks squaring off for an early season game that could have huge playoff ramifications.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
Point Spread: Chiefs -3
Moneyline Ravens +128
Moneyline Chiefs -152
Over/Under 47.5
These odds were updated at 6 am EST on 09/05/24, coming from Draft Kings.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense floundered last season, posting the lowest points per game since Patrick Mahomes took over as quarterback. Kansas City attempted to address its lack of explosive plays in the passing game by adding proven downfield threat Marquise Brown and selecting lightning-quick Xavier Worthy with their first-round picks – though Brown will miss opening day, so it may take several weeks before this new-look offense takes shape.
Kansas City will face off against an outstanding Ravens pass defense, which was first in DVOA last season. While Mike Macdonald moved on from Baltimore, Zachary Orr has been promoted within and may experience growing pains against an offense like Kansas City’s. However, I don’t foresee an overwhelming drop from previous seasons.
Kansas City also faces its own issues, with rookie Kingsley Suamataia set to start at left tackle and taking on the responsibility of protecting Mahomes’ blindside, an enormous task for someone so young. Expect some early struggles, particularly against Baltimore’s formidable front.
Kansas City recently signed Samaje Perine as another pass-blocking option. Though he joined last week, he could still be learning the playbook, increasing the risk of missing an assignment while learning the block technique.
The Ravens were criticised for their game plan against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, which failed to exploit Kansas City’s rush funnel defense and use Baltimore RBs more often. Perhaps realizing their mistake, they signed Derrick Henry this offseason; don’t be surprised if Baltimore overcorrects here by feeding Henry regularly early and often to set the pace and establish momentum.
Henry, one of the top running backs of this decade, and Lamar Jackson, one of the greatest rushing quarterbacks in NFL history, present defenses with a difficult challenge, but Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has found ways to effectively plan against them.
Baltimore’s concerns are focused on its offensive line, which has two new starters (LG Andrew Vorhees and RG Daniel Faalele).
Vorhees was a seventh-round pick who missed last season recovering from an ACL tear and struggling in the preseason, earning only 17th in PFF grade out of all 305 qualified linemen. Faalele didn’t fare any better, ranking 217 out of 217 OL in pressure rate allowed (this could present issues against Chris Jones and Chiefs’ D-line). At the same time, Jackson failed to take a single snap during preseason camp reports alluded to problems up front that may surface on opening night.
Ravens vs Chiefs Moneyline
This is a close spread, and betting on either team holds some value. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Baltimore +3
Both teams good offensively
Both teams have offensive line questions
Two great kickers
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Ravens vs Chiefs Over/Under Analysis
Both defenses ranked among the top 10 last season (Ravens were first, and Chiefs were seventh), and they are starting out ahead of their teams’ offensive strategies this year. The Ravens may struggle with their new offensive line, while the Chiefs’ defensive team tends to come up with effective game plans to slow Jackson. Expect the Ravens to rely heavily on Henry, which can slow the clock and keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field.
Kansas City’s offense should find renewed success this season, but it may not reach full capacity until Brown makes his debut. Plus, Kansas City must break in a rookie left tackle who may put pressure on Mahomes’ blindside; additionally, they have to deal with an aggressive Ravens pass defense, which could force Kansas City into a more run-heavy approach than usual.
Shawn Hochuli’s crew officiating this game tends to favor an under total. Since 2020, his games have scored 36-27-2 (57%) under-bets.
I don’t follow ref trends blindly — I dig deeper to understand their significance for any matchup. Since 2020, the Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been in the top five regarding offensive holding rate – likely by design to protect their star quarterback Alex Smith from 15-yard penalties. Hochuli’s crew also ranks in the top five when it comes to calling offensive holding, so we may witness several calls against Hochuli that can have significant implications when rooting for unders.
Again, 47 is a significant number, and by having two of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker), chances of missed extra points or field goals are reduced, thus decreasing risks that would cause your opponent to knock you off key numbers.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Under 47.5
Ravens could slow the game down on the ground
Chiefs have some secondary concerns
First game for both teams
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Prediction
Getting the Ravens and points does not happen very often. If the spread drops to 2.5 then I bet KC, but at -3 I am on the Ravens.
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