Texas opened as 3.5-point favorites but has since seen their advantage increase to a touchdown.
Steve Sarkisian and Texas have steadily advanced up to elite status. However, Michigan recently won the ultimate prize that many teams vie for each year.
Both programs had stellar 2023 seasons, earning conference championships and playoff spots. However, when they met on New Year’s Day in the semifinals of each conference tournament, their paths diverged drastically.
Texas fell to Washington but spent nine months building for this one and this season. They brought back Quinn Ewers as a quarterback, strengthened both wide receiver and defense with key transfers from other schools, joined the SEC conference, and have excelled at high-school recruiting.
The only thing missing: A ring.
Michigan won it all: after taking home the Rose Bowl, they added the National Championship just one week later.
Since then, they’ve experienced a head coaching change, nearly losing all their offensive talent to the NFL, an NCAA investigations, a Netflix documentary about their cheating scandal and then struggling through an uneven opening game against Fresno State.
After an exhaustive journey, the Wolverines finally arrive as home underdogs after beating Fresno State in week one. Despite all their recent changes, their defense remains impressive while they continue to make physical solid plays at both ends of the field.
Sarkisian has made strides to alter his program’s reputation of soft play. His team, particularly on offense, boasts unnaturally large and athletic bodies which typically lead to trophy victories at season’s end.
Preview Show
NCAA Football Preview Show: Texas vs Michigan
- Point Spread: Texas -7.5
- Moneyline Texas +215
- Moneyline Michigan +225
- Over/Under 42.5
Michigan football program is in a period of transition. Jim Harbaugh served as its leader for over ten years and guided the program to a National Championship.
Sherrone Moore now faces the difficult challenge of not only following in an icon’s footsteps but leading a team that lost all of its offensive weapons from last year.
Only Colston Loveland remains an offensive starter at tight end; everything else—including quarterbacking—remains uncertain.
Last weekend against Fresno State, Michigan posted an Offensive Success Rate that placed them within just the 57th percentile and an EPA per Play mark.
Davis Warren made an unexpected start at quarterback and completed 15 of 25 passes for 109 yards with one touchdown and one interception, averaging 0.24 EPA per dropback with only 38% Passing Success Rate.
Texas was impressive against Colorado State, defeating them 52-0.
Texas accomplished an 97th-percentile Offensive Success Rate and 93rd-percentile EPA per Play while holding Colorado State to just 18th and sixth percentiles respectively in these categories.
Longhorns’ seven starters on offense return, including quarterback Quinn Ewers, who amassed 254 yards during Week 1.
Laying 7.5 points on the road between two top brands may seem aggressive, but Texas is far superior at this stage of their season. Their roster is more complete and balanced and their production levels have become more reliable over time.
Texas vs Michigan Moneyline
The only moneyline odds worth betting are on Michigan so I would stay off the moneyline because I don’t see that happening. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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Texas has to many weapons
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Ewers to have a big game
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Michigans run defense is elite still
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Texas vs Michigan Over/Under Analysis
I like the over because I think Texas scores at worst in the high twenties. Expect Michigan in the high teens.
- Expect offensive explosion
- Close until second half
- First real test for both teams
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Prediction
Texas is to explosive for the Wolverines, who will struggle to score. Texas 31 Michigan 17.
Texas -7
