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How many Packers games will they win this season?
Based on Vegas Odds, the Packer is predicted to win 11.5 games for 2022.
#1 Reason to Bet on the Over: In consecutive years, the Packers led the league’s EPA/DB rankings. Aaron Rodgers led all quarterbacks in EPA+ CPOE both years.
It would be natural to worry about the loss of Davante Adams. However, Rodgers has not experienced a drop in play with Adams, not on the field. His EPA/DB was 0.25 with Adams off, compared to 0.23 with Adams on it in the past two seasons, with the Packers going 3-0 without Adams.
#2 Reason to Bet Over Matt LaFleur, the head coach, has won 13 games each of his three previous seasons. He was also first in 2020, fourth down aggression, and third in 2021. As four of five of their first five opponents are rookie head coaches, the Packers will likely have an early coaching advantage.
#3 Reasons to Bet Over The Packers were last in the league last year with -57.66 EPAP on special teams. This allowed a negative differential at 7.96 yards/KR and 4.8 yards/PR.
Rich Bisaccia, an experienced special-teams coordinator, will be hired. A positive regression in kick return statistics in 2022 should be expected. Positive regression is also due for the Packers, who finished last in field goals made above expectation.
#1 Reason to Bet the Under: Green Bay has the lowest net rest advantage in 2022, with 12 fewer rest days than their opponents. They play five games in which their opponent has more rest days versus two games where their opponent has fewer. After a bye, the Packers will play the Rams, and the bye does come late in the season, which I think helps the Packers.. They’ll also play their opponents with an additional day of rest in Weeks 16-17.
#2 Reason to Bet on the Under: From 2021, the Packers’ combined salary cap for the quarterback and dead caps is 8.3% higher. The salary cap squeeze influenced the Adams trade.
The loss of Adams makes this team less explosive. It will be harder for an offense that relies on moving the ball efficiently and methodically; the Packers are used to being a quick-strike offense that may change.
#3 Reason to Bet the Under: The Packers were the biggest Pythagorean super performer in 2021. The Packers had 13 wins, 3.2 wins more than their opponents, and 5-1 in games decided by one TD or less. The Packers may decline in close games in 2022, thanks to their third-best turnover margin last year.
I think Vegas nailed this over/under at 11.5. When I go through the schedule it doesn’t seem overly hard, but can the offensive line stay healthy? How does the loss of Adams affect Aaron Rodgers? I think the Packers are likelier to win 11 games than they are 12 games, which means I am betting the under, but I will not bet it big. I would tread carefully with this over/under. Prediction: Take Under!
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