These might be the two best teams left in the playoffs. The two most likely players to win MVP will do battle as the Bills and Josh Allen will battle the Ravens and Lamar Jackson in the weekend’s best matchup. The Ravens dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, while the Bills dominated the Denver Broncos. These two teams are as complete as any teams in the NFL and can beat you in many ways. The Ravens are the road favorite and won this season’s previous meeting between these two teams. Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite in the past has been the playoffs can he overcome those issues?
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
Point Spread: Ravens -1.5
Moneyline Ravens -118
Moneyline Bills -102
Over/Under 51.5
The betting odds have shifted in favor of the Ravens after Baltimore opened the week as a 1.5-point underdog to the Bills in Buffalo. This change is understandable, given the Ravens’ strong running game and past success against the Bills. However, I looked deeper into the factors influencing the outcome of this game. In their previous matchup in September, the Bills played without linebacker Matt Milano. His return will significantly impact the game, particularly in shadowing quarterback Lamar Jackson. Milano showcased his skills last week by effectively covering ground and preventing Bo Nix from having a big game. He will also be a crucial asset against running back Derrick Henry. Although Henry finished with 199 rushing yards in the first meeting, 87 came from a single touchdown burst in the first quarter, making his total somewhat misleading.
This is an anomaly for a Ravens team that ranked just 17th in the NFL for explosive plays this season. Moreover, the Bills struggled to establish their running game in September during their 35-10 loss to the Ravens. Trailing 21-3 at halftime, they abandoned the run completely, recording only 23 rushing attempts. However, in their recent game against the Broncos, a top ten run defense, the Bills ran 44 times for 210 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Josh Allen only rushed five times in the first matchup but is expected to carry the ball at least ten times in this game and be a key player in red zone situations.
The potential availability of Zay Flowers for the Ravens could also be significant. The Bills have excelled this season, ranking third in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per catch to tight ends. With Milano and physical nickelback Taron Johnson on the field, the Bills have the tools to contain the Ravens’ dynamic tight end duo, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. If Flowers plays, he will provide the Bills with an additional stretch receiver, complicating the defense’s efforts. The Ravens did not showcase their passing game in the first meeting due to their success on the ground, but the Bills will likely force them to take to the air this time.
Finally, Allen will need to push the ball downfield. In three of the Ravens’ five losses this season, opposing quarterbacks averaged over 7.3 yards per pass attempt. In four of those five losses, the opposing quarterbacks had a primary receiver who caught eight or more passes against Baltimore’s 31st-ranked pass defense. Allen is capable of stretching the field and, despite his 6-5 playoff record, he has been an accurate postseason passer who rarely makes mistakes. Veteran wideout Amari Cooper, who hasn’t been a major target for most of the season, may find himself in a pivotal role. The Bills are undefeated at home, with a 6-2 playoff record under Allen, and they are fielding their most complete team during this era. I believe a powerful ground attack, a consistent strategy of downfield passes, and an intensified effort to stop the run will lead them to the AFC Title game on Sunday. Take the Bills
Ravens vs Bills Moneyline
Moneyline value exists for both teams in this game and I would suggest betting this game with the points whichever way you want to bet. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet Houston +8.5
Can the Bills contain Henry
Can the Ravens keep Allen in the pocket
Buffalo at Home
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Ravens vs Bills Over/Under Analysis
I am going to bet the over here, I think this game will be played in the high 20s-to low thirties. I will not bet a lot on it though.
DraftKings
4.5/5
Tip: Bet the Over 51.5
Allen to play well
turnovers will be key
Both teams are tough on defense
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The Ravens pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL and in the end that will be the difference in a close game. Henry will get his but if the Bills can hold him at around 100 yards the odds of a Bills win skyrockets. Allen outplays Jackson in this game. This will be a close game.
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