Wake Forest Is 8–1. The Playoff Debate Has to Make Room for the Deacons

Wake Forest scored 77 points against Merrimack on Saturday. The game that could change how the country sees the Demon Deacons comes this Saturday at noon ET in Dallas. Win at No. 25 SMU, and Wake Forest will have a ranked road victory to put next to a record that already deserves more attention.

The Deacons are 8–1 overall and 5–1 in the ACC. They rose to No. 11 in the AP poll after sitting No. 16 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. SMU is 7–2, 5–2 in the ACC and 6–0 at home. Those numbers explain why a noon kickoff can matter as much to the playoff field as games that will draw a much bigger audience later in the day.

What Wake Forest can take from the Merrimack game

Steele Pizzella threw for 432 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start, then added 63 rushing yards and a touchdown. Jack Foley caught six passes for 162 yards. Wake Forest also scored on a punt return and an interception return. The Deacons found points in all three phases and were never in danger of letting the game get away from them.

How much of it applies to SMU? Start with Pizzella’s ability to involve different receivers. The big plays mattered against Merrimack, but the distribution is the part Wake can build on when the coverage gets tighter. If Foley draws extra attention, the quarterback has to be willing to throw to the receiver that attention leaves open. Keeping a drive alive with a second or third option is more likely to matter in Dallas than whether Wake can hit another pass for 40 yards.

The quarterback’s legs give Wake Forest another way to stress a defense. Use them when the play calls for it and there is space to take. The challenge in a road game is to stay patient when the first read is covered. An extra five yards and a manageable third down can be enough to keep the offense on schedule, even if nothing about that possession looks like the Merrimack game.

SMU gives the Deacons a chance to add a different kind of win

SMU put up 51 points against Virginia Tech last weekend. The Mustangs have also won all six of their home games. Wake Forest needs a plan for when SMU answers a touchdown with one of its own. That starts with keeping the offense organized on the following possession. A three-and-out can put a defense back on the field before it has had a chance to adjust.

Watch the first few third downs on both sides. Can Wake’s protection hold long enough for Pizzella to get to his next read? Can its defense get a stop without needing a turnover? If the Deacons can do those two things, they have a chance to make SMU drive the length of the field and keep the crowd from feeding off a series of quick stops.

The ACC path gives Wake Forest the clearest opening

Miami is 6–0 in league play, and Wake Forest sits one conference loss behind it. The Deacons’ loss came against Miami. Beating SMU would keep pressure on the teams around them and give Wake a better result to show the committee if the conference title route closes. The ACC standings and the national rankings measure different things, and Wake still has something to gain in both.

The AP poll has already moved Wake near the top 10. Tuesday’s CFP rankings will tell us where the committee puts the Deacons before their trip to Dallas. Saturday can give them a stronger argument for the next release. An 8–1 record gets a team into the discussion. A win over a ranked ACC opponent that hasn’t lost at home would make it harder to move on to the next name.