Villanova at No. 24 Louisville 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Friday, September 11, 2026 Time: 7:00 PM ET Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky TV: ACC Network Tickets: As low as $15 Line: Louisville -35.5 Over/Under: 55.5

No. 24 Louisville returns home Friday night looking to rebound quickly from a dramatic 41-38 loss to No. 9 Ole Miss.

The Cardinals showed plenty offensively despite the defeat. Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in his first collegiate start, while Louisville finished with 469 total yards. Tre Richardson emerged as one of the team’s most dangerous weapons with 83 receiving yards, a 62-yard touchdown catch and a 30-yard rushing score.

Villanova enters 1-1 after losing 35-32 to William & Mary and beating Bucknell 17-16. The Wildcats are a quality FCS program led by veteran quarterback Pat McQuaide, who has thrown for 488 yards and three touchdowns through two games.

Louisville should win comfortably, but covering more than five touchdowns on only five days’ rest is another question.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props may not be offered at every sportsbook. The player numbers below are projected betting targets.

Prop Bet #1: Lincoln Kienholz Over 239.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Kienholz Over 239.5 Passing Yards

• 307 Yards vs Ole Miss
• Brohm Passing Attack
• Favorable Matchup

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Kienholz immediately looked comfortable running Jeff Brohm’s offense, throwing for 307 yards without an interception against Ole Miss.

Villanova has allowed more than 250 passing yards per game through two contests, and Louisville possesses far more explosive receiving talent than either of its previous opponents.

The concern is playing time. If Louisville builds a huge third-quarter lead, Kienholz could be removed early.

Still, 240 yards is reachable before the game becomes a blowout.

Projected Bet: Lincoln Kienholz Over 239.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Tre Richardson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Richardson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

• 83 Yards vs Ole Miss
• 62-Yard TD
• Explosive Weapon

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Richardson showed against Ole Miss that he doesn’t need many touches to create major production.

His versatility allows Louisville to use him in the slot, outside and even as a runner. Villanova’s secondary will have difficulty matching his speed.

The danger is another early blowout that limits second-half snaps.

Projected Bet: Tre Richardson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #3: Isaiah Ragland Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Ragland Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

• Power Four Defense
• Negative Game Script
• Shared Backfield

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Ragland has rushed for 136 yards through two games, but Louisville presents a major increase in size and athleticism.

The bigger issue is game script.

If Louisville jumps ahead by multiple touchdowns, Villanova will be forced to throw more frequently, reducing Ragland’s carries. He also shares the backfield with Ja’briel Mace.

Projected Bet: Isaiah Ragland Under 49.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Under 55.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 55.5 Points

• Louisville Short Week
• Likely Blowout
• Second-Half Clock Management

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Louisville scored 38 against Ole Miss, but this game should unfold differently.

The Cardinals are playing only five days after an emotional opener and face SMU next. Once Louisville establishes a comfortable lead, expect Brohm to protect his starters, run the football and shorten the game.

Villanova managed only 17 points against Bucknell and now faces a much more talented defense.

Bet: Under 55.5 Points

Players to Watch

Lincoln Kienholz, QB, Louisville: Threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns in his first start.

Tre Richardson, WR, Louisville: Produced 113 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against Ole Miss.

Lawayne McCoy, WR, Louisville: Caught a 54-yard touchdown and gives Kienholz another vertical weapon.

Stanquan Clark, LB, Louisville: Recorded an interception against Ole Miss.

Pat McQuaide, QB, Villanova: Has 488 passing yards and three touchdowns through two games.

Jake Hilton, WR, Villanova: Leads the Wildcats with 158 receiving yards and is averaging more than 26 yards per catch.

Isaiah Ragland, RB, Villanova: Has 136 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Keys to the Game

Villanova

The Wildcats must avoid falling behind 21-0 in the opening quarter. McQuaide needs to protect the football, while Ragland and Mace must generate enough rushing production to keep Louisville’s offense off the field.

Villanova also needs explosive plays from Hilton and Braden Reed to have any chance of staying competitive.

Louisville

Louisville needs a cleaner performance after allowing 41 points to Ole Miss.

The Cardinals must eliminate penalties, prevent explosive passes and turn early red-zone opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals.

Once the game is secure, protecting Kienholz and other starters should become the priority.

Betting Prediction

Louisville is clearly the superior team, but -35.5 is a massive number.

Villanova went 12-3 last season and has enough veteran offensive talent to produce several scoring drives. Louisville is also playing on a short week and has little reason to chase style points once the outcome is decided.

That makes Villanova more attractive against the spread.

The total is the stronger wager. Louisville should reach the 30s or low 40s, but Villanova may struggle to score enough to push the game beyond 55.5.

The Verdict

Louisville should control the game after Villanova provides some early resistance.

Kienholz continues building confidence, Richardson creates another explosive play and Louisville’s defense responds after struggling against Ole Miss.

The Cardinals get their first victory, but extensive second-half substitutions allow Villanova to remain inside the enormous spread.

Final Score Prediction: Louisville 41, Villanova 10

Best Bet: Under 55.5

Against the Spread: Villanova +35.5

Moneyline: Louisville

Top Player Prop: Lincoln Kienholz Over 239.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: Tre Richardson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards | Isaiah Ragland Under 49.5 Rushing Yards