Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Offensive Breakdown: Win Total, Passing & Rushing Projections and 4 Prop Bets

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the 2026 college football season with one of the most talented offenses in the country and legitimate expectations of competing for both the Big Ten championship and the national title.

Ohio State went 12-0 during the 2025 regular season before losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and 24-14 to Miami in the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes finished 12-2 while averaging 33.4 points and 422.6 yards per game. Ohio State produced 3,755 passing yards, 2,161 rushing yards, 33 passing touchdowns and 25 rushing touchdowns.

The encouraging news is that Ohio State returns the three most important pieces of its offensive core.

Quarterback Julian Sayin is back after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns.

Running back Bo Jackson returns after rushing for 1,090 yards as a true freshman.

And wide receiver Jeremiah Smith enters his junior season already sitting within striking distance of several Ohio State career receiving records.

The offensive line also provides significant continuity. Carson Hinzman, Luke Montgomery and Austin Siereveld started all 14 games last season and all three enter 2026 on the Outland Trophy preseason watch list.

Ohio State will have to replace other important pieces from last year’s offense, but few teams in college football can match the combination of Sayin, Jackson, Smith and an experienced offensive-line interior.

Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Offensive Projections

Projected Record: 10-2

Projected Team Passing Yards: 3,300

Projected Team Rushing Yards: 2,150

Projected Total Offense: 5,450 yards

Projected Passing Touchdowns: 31

Projected Rushing Touchdowns: 24

Projected Offensive Touchdowns: 55-57

Projected Points Per Game: 35-37

Biggest Offensive Strength: Elite Quarterback-Wide Receiver Combination

Biggest Offensive Question: Can Ohio State maintain its offensive efficiency against a brutal schedule?

Quarterback Breakdown: Julian Sayin

There may not be a more important reason for optimism surrounding Ohio State’s offense than the return of Julian Sayin.

Sayin enters his second season as the starter after putting together an outstanding 2025 campaign.

He completed 301 of 391 passes for 3,610 yards, 32 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, completing an extraordinary 77.0% of his passes. His 177.45 passer efficiency rating ranked among the best in college football.

Those numbers are remarkable for a quarterback who entered last season with virtually no starting experience.

Sayin wasn’t simply efficient against weaker competition.

He threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns against Penn State and recorded a season-high 393 passing yards at Wisconsin.

That experience should make him even more dangerous in 2026.

The biggest question is whether Ohio State wants Sayin to become a higher-volume passer.

The Buckeyes averaged 268.2 passing yards per game last season while attempting only 408 passes over 14 games.

With Sayin, Smith and a deep collection of receivers, Ohio State could certainly throw more.

However, Ryan Day also has a 1,000-yard running back and an experienced offensive line. The Buckeyes don’t need to become one-dimensional.

That balance should help Sayin.

Defenses cannot simply sit in two-high coverage all afternoon trying to take Smith away because Jackson is capable of punishing light defensive boxes.

At the same time, stacking the box against the run could leave Smith isolated against a cornerback.

That is exactly the type of conflict elite offenses want to create.

Sayin’s biggest challenge will be the schedule.

Ohio State travels to Texas in Week 2, visits defending national champion Indiana in October, travels to USC, hosts Oregon and finishes against Michigan.

Those games should provide a much better test of Sayin’s ability to carry the offense when Ohio State can’t simply overwhelm an opponent physically.

Julian Sayin Projection: 3,200-3,400 passing yards, 30-32 touchdowns and 7-9 interceptions.

Ohio State Running Game Breakdown

Ohio State may have one of the country’s best quarterbacks and the nation’s most recognizable wide receiver, but the running game could be just as important.

Bo Jackson became one of the breakout players of the 2025 season.

As a true freshman, Jackson appeared in 13 games and made 10 starts, rushing 179 times for 1,090 yards and six touchdowns. He averaged more than six yards per carry and added 19 receptions for 200 yards and another touchdown.

Jackson became only the fifth true freshman in Ohio State history to rush for 1,000 yards, joining a list that includes Robert Smith, Maurice Clarett, J.K. Dobbins and TreVeyon Henderson.

His production became even more impressive late in the year.

Jackson rushed for 105 yards against Penn State, 112 against UCLA, 110 and two touchdowns against Rutgers and a career-high 117 yards at Michigan.

Now he enters his sophomore season with an opportunity to become the unquestioned centerpiece of the backfield.

Jackson won’t have to carry the entire rushing attack himself.

Isaiah West rushed for 310 yards and two touchdowns on only 59 attempts as a freshman last season. He showed his potential with 61 yards and a touchdown against UCLA.

Ohio State also added former Florida running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, who provides additional Power Four experience and owns a career-high 116-yard rushing performance.

That creates an excellent combination.

Bo Jackson should receive the majority of the meaningful carries, but Ohio State has enough depth to prevent him from being overworked.

The offensive line should help as well.

The Buckeyes rushed for 2,161 yards and 25 touchdowns last season despite averaging only 154.4 yards per game.

With Jackson entering his second season and three decorated interior offensive linemen returning, there is a realistic path toward better rushing production.

Projected Team Rushing Yards: 2,150

Projected Rushing Touchdowns: 24

Ohio State Offensive Line Breakdown

Ohio State’s offensive line may be overshadowed by its skill-position talent, but the group could become one of the best units in the Big Ten.

The strength begins in the middle.

Carson Hinzman, Luke Montgomery and Austin Siereveld all started each of Ohio State’s 14 games last season and enter 2026 on the Outland Trophy preseason watch list. Ohio State is the only school with three offensive linemen on that particular preseason list.

Montgomery played 870 snaps last season and earned second-team All-America and second-team All-Big Ten recognition.

Hinzman played 841 snaps and earned first-team All-America honors.

Siereveld played 810 snaps, was a team captain and earned second-team All-Big Ten honors.

That is an enormous amount of experience.

The Buckeyes’ entire starting offensive line earned some form of all-conference recognition last season.

Continuity matters even more because Ohio State already has established stars at quarterback and running back.

Sayin shouldn’t need to adjust to an entirely new protection system.

Jackson should have veteran blockers creating lanes in front of him.

That allows Ohio State to spend less time simply trying to make the offense functional and more time adding wrinkles designed to exploit defenses.

The line was not perfect last season.

Ohio State surrendered 16 sacks overall, including five in the Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana.

Against elite opponents, protecting Sayin remains essential.

Still, few programs enter the season with three interior linemen carrying the type of individual recognition Hinzman, Montgomery and Siereveld possess.

That should make the line one of Ohio State’s biggest strengths.

Ohio State Passing Game Breakdown

Ohio State’s passing game begins with Jeremiah Smith, who is already building one of the greatest receiving careers in program history.

Smith has accumulated 163 receptions for 2,558 yards and 27 touchdowns during his first two seasons. He has more receiving yards and touchdowns than any college receiver over that two-year period.

His 2025 season included 87 receptions for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns despite appearing in only 13 games.

The records are already within reach.

Smith enters 2026 needing 43 receptions to break Emeka Egbuka’s Ohio State career receptions record, 341 yards to break Michael Jenkins’ career receiving-yardage mark and nine touchdown receptions to surpass Chris Olave’s school record.

That means Smith could own all three major Ohio State career receiving records before his junior season ends.

Defenses will obviously make stopping him their first priority.

The problem is Ohio State has other options.

Brandon Inniss returns after catching 35 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns last season. His versatility also earned him a spot on the Paul Hornung Award preseason watch list.

The Buckeyes also added UTSA transfer Devin McCuin.

McCuin caught 65 passes for 726 yards and eight touchdowns last season and finished his UTSA career with 152 receptions, 1,696 yards and 16 scores.

That is a significant addition.

McCuin doesn’t need to become Smith.

He simply needs to punish defenses for committing too many resources toward the All-American on the opposite side.

Ohio State also has talented younger receivers, including highly regarded freshman Chris Henry Jr., who caught 24 passes for 588 yards during a shortened senior high school season.

At tight end, Northwestern transfer Hunter Welcing arrives after earning honorable mention All-Big Ten recognition and producing the most receiving yards by a Northwestern tight end in several years. He enters the season on the Mackey Award preseason watch list.

This may not be exactly the same receiving group Ohio State had in 2025.

It might be deeper.

Smith gives Sayin an elite No. 1 target.

McCuin brings proven collegiate production.

Inniss gives the offense experience and versatility.

Welcing provides another option in the middle of the field.

Few quarterbacks in college football will have a better collection of weapons.

Projected Team Passing Yards: 3,300

Projected Passing Touchdowns: 31

Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Win Total

Ohio State’s current regular-season win total is 9.5 victories at BetMGM. The sportsbook also lists the Buckeyes at +180 to win the Big Ten, +600 to win the national championship and -275 to reach the College Football Playoff.

The 9.5 number is fascinating because Ohio State went 12-0 during the 2025 regular season.

The difference is the 2026 schedule.

Ohio State opens against Ball State before traveling to Texas on September 12.

Kent State follows before Big Ten play begins against Illinois.

The Buckeyes then travel to Iowa and host Maryland before one of the most important games of the season: an October 17 trip to Indiana, the team that defeated Ohio State in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game.

After the bye, things don’t get easier.

Ohio State travels to USC, hosts Oregon, plays Northwestern, travels to Nebraska and finishes the regular season against Michigan in Columbus.

That is a championship-level schedule.

Texas, Indiana and USC are all road games.

Oregon and Michigan come to Columbus.

Even Iowa and Nebraska could become difficult road environments.

Ohio State could be one of the best three teams in the country and still lose twice.

However, the win-total number only requires 10 victories.

With Sayin, Smith, Jackson and an experienced offensive-line core returning, I believe the Buckeyes get there.

My prediction: Ohio State finishes 10-2 and clears the 9.5-win total.

Four Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Prop Bets

Note: Ohio State’s 9.5-win total is a current sportsbook market. The statistical season props below are projection-based betting benchmarks because season-long college football team passing, rushing and touchdown markets are not consistently offered at every sportsbook.

Prop Bet #1: Ohio State Over 9.5 Regular-Season Wins

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Ohio State Over 9.5 Regular-Season Wins

• Elite Returning Quarterback
• Championship-Level Skill Talent
• Experienced Offensive Line

New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days

Open DraftKings

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Ohio State only needs to reach 10 victories.

That is a high standard for most programs.

For Ohio State, it has become almost routine.

The Buckeyes went 12-0 during last year’s regular season and BetMGM notes that Ohio State has recorded at least 11 victories in each of the last five full seasons.

The offense gives Ohio State an extremely high floor.

Sayin returns after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns.

Jackson rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a true freshman.

Smith is arguably the most accomplished receiver in college football.

Hinzman, Montgomery and Siereveld provide experience along the offensive line.

Ohio State can lose twice and still cash the Over.

That margin is important because the schedule contains several marquee matchups.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The schedule is significantly more difficult than last year’s.

Ohio State travels to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska.

The Buckeyes also host Oregon and Michigan.

Finding three potential losses isn’t difficult.

Texas could beat Ohio State in Austin.

Indiana is the defending national champion and already defeated the Buckeyes last December.

USC represents another difficult road trip.

Oregon should be one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten.

Michigan remains Michigan.

Ohio State also lost substantial defensive talent to the NFL, meaning the offense may have to carry more of the burden than it did during a 2025 season when the defense allowed only 9.3 points per game.

A 9-3 season would be disappointing by Ohio State standards, but it is not impossible with this schedule.

Projection: Ohio State finishes 10-2

Bet: Over 9.5 Wins

Confidence: 7/10

Prop Bet #2: Julian Sayin Over 3,149.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Julian Sayin Over 3,149.5 Passing Yards

• 3,610 Yards Last Season
• Jeremiah Smith Returns
• Deep Receiving Corps

New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days

Open FanDuel

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Sayin already demonstrated that he can produce at this level.

He threw for 3,610 yards in 14 games last season while averaging 257.9 yards per contest.

To surpass 3,149.5 yards during a 12-game regular season, Sayin would need to average approximately 263 passing yards per game.

That is only slightly above last year’s average.

There are reasons to believe his volume could increase.

Smith returns as the premier weapon.

McCuin arrives after producing 726 yards and eight touchdowns at UTSA.

Inniss provides another veteran target.

Welcing gives Ohio State an experienced tight end.

The schedule could also help the Over.

Games against Texas, Indiana, USC and Oregon may require Sayin to continue throwing well into the fourth quarter.

Ohio State played many games last season where the outcome was essentially decided early and the offense didn’t have to remain aggressive.

There could be more four-quarter games in 2026.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Ohio State does not need Sayin to throw for huge numbers to win.

Jackson is coming off a 1,090-yard rushing season, and the Buckeyes have an experienced offensive line.

If the rushing attack improves, Ohio State may emphasize balance rather than asking Sayin to throw 35 times every week.

Blowouts are another factor.

Ball State and Kent State could provide games where Sayin is finished by the middle of the third quarter.

Northwestern and several other opponents could produce similar situations if Ohio State dominates.

The schedule also includes several elite defenses that could suppress his yardage.

Texas, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan will all be capable of making Ohio State work for explosive plays.

Projection: 3,200-3,400 Passing Yards

Bet: Over 3,149.5 Passing Yards

Confidence: 7.5/10

Prop Bet #3: Ohio State Over 2,049.5 Team Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Ohio State Over 2,049.5 Team Rushing Yards

• Bo Jackson’s 1,000-Yard Talent
• Veteran Interior Offensive Line
• Improved Backfield Depth

Bet $1 and get double the winnings up to $25 for your next 10 bets

–

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Ohio State rushed for 2,161 yards last season despite playing two postseason games beyond the regular season.

The regular-season benchmark of 2,049.5 requires about 171 rushing yards per game.

That represents improvement from last year’s 154.4-yard average, but the personnel makes it realistic.

Jackson should be better in Year 2.

He already rushed for 1,090 yards while averaging more than six yards per carry as a true freshman.

West gives Ohio State another talented young back after averaging more than five yards per carry last season.

Ja’Kobi Jackson provides experienced depth.

Most importantly, Hinzman, Montgomery and Siereveld give the Buckeyes three veteran blockers in the middle of the offensive line.

Ohio State should also have several games where it is protecting large second-half leads.

That usually means additional rushing attempts.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The difficult schedule matters.

Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon, Nebraska and Michigan all provide potential matchups where Ohio State could find running lanes much more difficult to create.

Jackson also handled only 179 carries last season.

If Ohio State continues to manage his workload rather than turning him into a 250-carry back, the team needs significant production from the rest of the running back room.

Sayin is not a major rushing quarterback.

That means Ohio State doesn’t receive the same hidden rushing-yardage benefit that teams with true dual-threat quarterbacks can generate.

The Buckeyes may also decide their biggest advantage is throwing to Smith rather than repeatedly running into loaded boxes.

Projection: 2,150 Team Rushing Yards

Bet: Over 2,049.5 Team Rushing Yards

Confidence: 7/10

Prop Bet #4: Ohio State Over 52.5 Offensive Touchdowns

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Ohio State Over 52.5 Offensive Touchdowns

• Julian Sayin’s Efficiency
• Jeremiah Smith’s Red-Zone Dominance
• Bo Jackson Leads Powerful Run Game

Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win

Open BetMGM

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Ohio State combined for 33 passing touchdowns and 25 rushing touchdowns last season.

That gives the Buckeyes an established foundation of touchdown production.

Sayin threw 32 touchdowns himself.

Smith caught 12.

Jackson scored six rushing touchdowns and one through the air.

All three return.

Ohio State also adds McCuin, who caught eight touchdown passes for UTSA last season.

The schedule provides several opportunities for huge scoring totals.

Ball State and Kent State come to Ohio Stadium in September, while Maryland and Northwestern are also home games.

Those four games alone could produce a significant percentage of the touchdown total.

An average of approximately 4.4 offensive touchdowns per game would push Ohio State beyond 52.5.

For an offense with this much talent, that is achievable.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The 2026 schedule contains several opponents capable of forcing Ohio State into low-scoring games.

The Buckeyes scored only 10 points against Indiana and 14 against Miami in their final two games last season.

That shows elite defenses can slow this offense.

Texas, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan could all produce similar challenges.

Ohio State’s red-zone efficiency also wasn’t perfect last season. The Buckeyes scored touchdowns on 46 of 69 red-zone opportunities.

More field goals and fewer touchdowns against the elite portion of the schedule could make 53 offensive touchdowns difficult to reach.

There is also the possibility that Ohio State wins several games with defense and field position rather than needing to score 40-plus points.

Projection: 55-57 Offensive Touchdowns

Bet: Over 52.5 Offensive Touchdowns

Confidence: 6.5/10

Best Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Prop Bet

Sayin’s passing-yardage Over is the Ohio State offensive wager I trust the most.

There is very little projection required to believe he can become a 3,200-yard passer.

He already threw for 3,610 yards last season while completing nearly 77% of his passes.

Smith gives him one of the country’s most dominant receivers.

McCuin brings another established target after producing 726 yards at UTSA.

Inniss provides experience.

Welcing gives Sayin another weapon at tight end.

The difficult schedule actually helps this particular wager.

Ohio State is less likely to spend every fourth quarter simply protecting three-touchdown leads.

Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan should force the Buckeyes to remain aggressive.

If Sayin stays healthy for 12 games, another 3,200-plus-yard season is the most likely outcome.

Conclusion

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the 2026 season with everything necessary to field one of college football’s elite offenses.

Julian Sayin is no longer an inexperienced quarterback trying to prove he belongs.

He is coming off a season in which he threw for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns while completing nearly 77% of his passes.

Bo Jackson is no longer an unknown freshman.

He enters Year 2 after rushing for 1,090 yards and becoming only the fifth true freshman in Ohio State history to reach the 1,000-yard mark.

And Jeremiah Smith is already chasing Ohio State history.

Smith has 2,558 career receiving yards and 27 touchdowns and could break the school’s major career receiving records during his junior season.

The supporting cast is impressive as well.

McCuin arrives with 152 career receptions and 16 touchdowns from UTSA.

Inniss returns with extensive Ohio State experience.

West provides another promising running back.

Hinzman, Montgomery and Siereveld give the Buckeyes three experienced and decorated offensive linemen.

My projection has Ohio State producing approximately 3,300 passing yards, 2,150 rushing yards and 55-57 offensive touchdowns while averaging 35-37 points per game.

That should make the Buckeyes one of the most productive offenses in the Big Ten.

The biggest obstacle isn’t talent.

It is the schedule.

Ohio State has to travel to Texas, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Nebraska while hosting Oregon and Michigan.

That schedule is why I am projecting 10-2 rather than 11-1 or 12-0.

Ten victories would still cash the current Over 9.5 win total and should keep Ohio State firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. BetMGM currently lists the Buckeyes as the Big Ten favorite at +180, a +600 national-title contender and -275 to make the playoff.

From an offensive betting perspective, the strongest wager is Julian Sayin Over 3,149.5 passing yards.

The combination of Sayin’s proven efficiency, Smith’s dominance, McCuin’s arrival and a schedule likely to create more competitive four-quarter games makes another big statistical season extremely realistic.

Ohio State may face a much more difficult road than it did during its undefeated 2025 regular season.

But with Sayin, Jackson and Smith leading the offense, the Buckeyes have the firepower to win the Big Ten, return to the College Football Playoff and compete for another national championship.