The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter the 2026 college football season with legitimate national championship expectations and one of the most intriguing offensive situations in the country.

Notre Dame’s 2025 offense averaged 41.8 points and 458.5 total yards per game, while the running game produced 203.4 yards per contest and averaged 5.69 yards per carry. The Irish also scored 38 rushing touchdowns.

The most important offensive player returns.

Quarterback CJ Carr started all 12 games last season and threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns, completing 66.7% of his passes. Carr threw at least one touchdown pass in every game and produced nine games with multiple touchdown passes.

The challenge is replacing one of college football’s most devastating running back combinations.

Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both left for the NFL, becoming the first pair of running backs from the same school to be selected as the first two players at their position in the same modern-era NFL Draft. Love rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025, while Price added 674 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.

That creates a much larger role for Aneyas Williams, who was extremely productive in limited opportunities last season.

Notre Dame also returns experienced receivers Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse, added former Ohio State receivers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter, and brings back an offensive line led by preseason All-American tackle Anthonie Knapp.

The ceiling remains extremely high.

The question is whether Notre Dame can replace enough of Love and Price’s touchdown production to remain one of the nation’s most efficient offenses.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2026 Offensive Projections

Projected Record: 11-1

Projected Team Passing Yards: 3,100

Projected Team Rushing Yards: 2,050

Projected Total Offense: 5,150 yards

Projected Passing Touchdowns: 29

Projected Rushing Touchdowns: 24

Projected Offensive Touchdowns: 52-54

Projected Points Per Game: 35-37

Biggest Offensive Strength: Quarterback and Offensive Line

Biggest Offensive Question: Can Notre Dame replace the extraordinary production of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price?

Quarterback Breakdown: CJ Carr

CJ Carr enters 2026 with an opportunity to establish himself as one of the best quarterbacks in college football.

Carr started all 12 games in his first season as Notre Dame’s starter and completed 195 passes for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns, finishing with a 66.7% completion rate. He added three rushing touchdowns.

Those numbers become even more impressive when considering how explosive Notre Dame’s rushing attack was.

The Irish didn’t need Carr to throw 40 times every week.

He still produced multiple big-time passing performances.

Carr threw for a career-high 354 yards and four touchdowns at Arkansas. He added 342 yards against NC State, 299 at Boston College and 293 against Texas A&M.

His ability to generate explosive plays may be his greatest strength.

Among returning Power Four quarterbacks, Carr finished 2025 first in yards per completion at 14.06, second in yards per attempt at 9.35 and second in touchdown rate at 8.2%.

That is exactly the type of profile Notre Dame wants.

The Irish don’t need Carr to complete 35 short passes every Saturday.

They want to establish the running game, force defenses to bring additional defenders toward the line of scrimmage and then create explosive opportunities through play action.

Carr demonstrated last season that he can capitalize on those situations.

The next step is becoming the centerpiece of the offense.

Last season, defenses were terrified of Love and Price.

That may change in 2026.

Opponents will probably enter games determined to make Carr prove he can carry Notre Dame without one of the country’s best running back combinations beside him.

That could actually increase his passing volume.

Carr averaged approximately 228 passing yards per game last season.

A jump into the 250-260 range would put him comfortably above 3,000 yards.

The supporting cast is good enough to make that realistic.

CJ Carr Projection: 3,000-3,150 passing yards, 28-30 passing touchdowns and 6-8 interceptions.

Notre Dame Running Game Breakdown

This is the most fascinating part of Notre Dame’s offense.

The Irish were one of college football’s best rushing teams last season, averaging 203.4 yards per game and 5.69 yards per carry while scoring 38 rushing touchdowns.

But Love and Price accounted for an enormous portion of that production.

Love finished with 1,372 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 199 carries, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. He also caught 27 passes for another 280 yards.

Price added 674 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 113 attempts, averaging nearly six yards per carry.

Replacing more than 2,000 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns is not something Notre Dame can simply assume will happen.

The good news is that Aneyas Williams has been extremely productive whenever given the football.

Williams rushed only 24 times last season but generated 224 yards and five touchdowns, an extraordinary average of 9.3 yards per carry. He also caught two passes for 40 yards.

His late-season performances were especially encouraging.

Williams rushed five times for 72 yards and a touchdown against Navy, three times for 39 yards and a touchdown against Syracuse and 10 times for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Stanford.

That is a very small sample, but the explosiveness is obvious.

Williams now gets the opportunity to prove he can maintain production with a much larger workload.

Notre Dame also has younger backs such as Nolan James Jr. and Kedren Young available in the rotation. James is listed at 5-foot-10 and 215 pounds, while Young gives the Irish a 5-foot-11, 234-pound option.

The likely strategy is a committee.

Notre Dame doesn’t need Williams to become Love and Price combined.

The Irish need Williams to emerge as the lead back while two or three other players absorb the carries previously handled by Price and the rest of the rotation.

The offensive line makes that transition considerably easier.

Notre Dame’s blocking helped the offense average 5.69 yards per carry last season, and the Irish retain several important pieces up front.

Even with massive personnel losses at running back, I still expect Notre Dame to remain a strong rushing offense.

Projected Team Rushing Yards: 2,050

Projected Rushing Touchdowns: 24

Notre Dame Offensive Line Breakdown

Notre Dame’s offensive line is the biggest reason I am comfortable projecting another productive offensive season.

Everything starts with Anthonie Knapp.

Knapp has started all 29 games he has played during the last two seasons, including all 12 games at left tackle in 2025. He enters 2026 as a Walter Camp preseason first-team All-American and appears on both the Outland Trophy and Lombardi Award watch lists.

Knapp helped anchor an offense that averaged 5.69 yards per rushing attempt and allowed only one sack per game, the eighth-lowest rate nationally.

That protection was extremely important during Carr’s first season as a starter.

It becomes even more important now.

Carr should have greater responsibility in 2026, and Notre Dame cannot afford to put him consistently behind schedule with sacks and negative plays.

The Irish also return Guerby Lambert, who started all 12 games at right guard last season and joins Knapp on the Outland Trophy watch list.

There are additional experienced options throughout the group, including players such as Ashton Craig, Joe Otting and Sullivan Absher, giving Notre Dame several possible combinations along the interior.

The overall standard at Notre Dame remains extremely high.

The offensive line isn’t simply expected to protect Carr.

It has to replace the rushing lanes that allowed Love and Price to dominate games.

That may be difficult early.

Running backs develop timing with offensive linemen, particularly on zone concepts where patience and vision are critical.

Williams and the new rotation will have to develop that chemistry.

Still, Notre Dame’s line gives the offense a massive advantage.

Carr should be protected.

Williams should have running lanes.

And offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock should have enough confidence in the line to remain balanced rather than asking Carr to carry the offense by himself.

Notre Dame Passing Game Breakdown

Notre Dame’s receiving corps might quietly be one of the deepest groups on the roster.

Jordan Faison returns after leading the Irish with career highs of 49 receptions and 640 receiving yards last season. He also caught four touchdown passes and started all 12 games.

Faison has become one of Carr’s most reliable weapons.

He produced five catches for 105 yards and a touchdown against Purdue and finished the regular season with three receptions for 68 yards and a score against Stanford.

His versatility also allows Notre Dame to move him around formations and use him in space.

Then there is Jaden Greathouse.

Greathouse’s 2025 season was limited to only four games because of injury, but his previous production demonstrates his upside. He caught 42 passes for 592 yards and four touchdowns during Notre Dame’s 2024 season and produced 128 yards and two touchdowns in the national championship game against Ohio State.

A healthy Greathouse is almost like adding another transfer.

Notre Dame also went directly to Ohio State to increase the receiver room’s ceiling.

Mylan Graham joins the Irish after catching six passes for 93 yards in limited action for Ohio State last season. Graham was a former five-star prospect who recorded more than 2,000 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns during his high school career.

Quincy Porter provides another former five-star addition.

The 6-foot-4 receiver appeared in five games at Ohio State last season and caught four passes for 59 yards. Porter was rated among the top four receivers nationally in the 2025 recruiting class.

Neither transfer brings massive college numbers.

That doesn’t make them insignificant.

Notre Dame already has established production from Faison and a proven veteran in Greathouse.

Graham and Porter don’t need to immediately become 1,000-yard receivers.

If one emerges as another reliable starter, Carr will have multiple legitimate targets.

The current roster also includes receivers such as Cam Williams, Jerome Bettis Jr., Micah Gilbert and Elijah Burress, giving Notre Dame additional depth.

Carr threw for 2,741 yards last season while Notre Dame relied heavily on the running game.

With Love and Price gone, I expect slightly more emphasis on the passing attack.

Projected Team Passing Yards: 3,100

Projected Passing Touchdowns: 29

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2026 Win Total

Notre Dame owns the highest regular-season win total in college football.

BetMGM currently lists the Fighting Irish at 11.5 victories, with the Over at +150 and the Under around -185 to -200 depending on the latest board. VegasInsider also lists Notre Dame at 11.5.

That makes the wager extremely simple.

For the Over to cash, Notre Dame must finish 12-0.

An 11-1 season loses the wager.

That is an enormous standard, even for a national championship contender.

The schedule does provide a realistic undefeated path.

Notre Dame opens against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field before playing Rice and Michigan State at home. The Irish then travel to Purdue and North Carolina before hosting Stanford.

The first major road test may come October 17 at BYU in Provo.

After the bye, Notre Dame plays Navy at Gillette Stadium before hosting Miami, Boston College and SMU in three consecutive November home games. The Irish finish at Syracuse.

There is no Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, Texas or Oregon on the regular-season schedule.

That explains the 11.5 number.

But several teams are capable of beating Notre Dame.

Wisconsin at Lambeau is a dangerous opener.

BYU in Provo could be difficult.

Miami should be one of the most important games of the season.

SMU has enough offensive talent to create problems.

And road games always introduce upset possibilities.

My projection has Notre Dame finishing 11-1, which would still likely put the Irish firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation but would cash the Under.

Four Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2026 Prop Bets

Note: Notre Dame’s 11.5-win total is a current sportsbook market. The statistical season props below are projection-based betting benchmarks because full-season college football team passing, rushing and touchdown markets are not consistently available at every sportsbook.

Prop Bet #1: Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular-Season Wins

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular-Season Wins

• Perfect Season Required for Over
• Several Dangerous Road Games
• Major Running Back Turnover

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Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The number itself makes the Under attractive.

Notre Dame can have an outstanding season and this bet can still cash.

If the Fighting Irish finish 11-1, the Under wins.

The Over requires perfection.

Notre Dame must navigate all 12 games without a single mistake.

The schedule isn’t brutal, but it contains enough danger to create multiple opportunities for one loss.

The Irish open against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, travel to BYU, play Navy at Gillette Stadium and finish at Syracuse. Miami and SMU also visit Notre Dame Stadium in November.

The offense is also replacing Love and Price, who combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards and 29 rushing touchdowns last season.

That creates legitimate uncertainty.

Notre Dame may still be one of the best teams in the country, but asking any team to go undefeated is difficult.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Notre Dame has the roster to do it.

Carr returns after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns in his first season as the starter.

The offensive line remains a major strength.

Knapp is a preseason All-American, and Lambert provides another returning starter from a unit that averaged 5.69 yards per carry and allowed only one sack per game last season.

The defense should also keep Notre Dame from needing 40 points every Saturday.

Most importantly, the schedule lacks the collection of elite opponents many other national championship contenders face.

Notre Dame gets Miami and SMU at home and avoids a conference championship game because of its independent status.

A 12-0 season is absolutely possible.

It just isn’t the outcome I would want to lay money on when 11-1 is enough to lose the Over.

Projection: Notre Dame finishes 11-1

Bet: Under 11.5 Wins

Confidence: 7.5/10

Prop Bet #2: CJ Carr Over 2,899.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: CJ Carr Over 2,899.5 Passing Yards

• 2,741 Yards in First Starting Season
• Deep Receiving Corps
• Increased Passing Responsibility

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Carr needs only modest statistical growth.

He threw for 2,741 yards last season, meaning he would need roughly 160 additional yards over the entire year to surpass 2,899.5.

That works out to approximately 13 additional passing yards per game.

The biggest reason to expect that increase is the running back turnover.

Love and Price combined for 312 carries and more than 2,000 rushing yards last season.

Notre Dame may remain committed to the run, but it is difficult to imagine the new backfield immediately duplicating that dominance.

That could shift more responsibility toward Carr.

The receiver room also appears stronger.

Faison returns after catching 49 passes for 640 yards. Greathouse returns after missing most of last season with injury. Graham and Porter arrive from Ohio State.

Carr only needs to average approximately 242 passing yards per game to reach 2,900.

Given his experience and surrounding weapons, that is reasonable.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Notre Dame may remain too balanced for Carr to accumulate huge passing numbers.

The Irish averaged 203.4 rushing yards per game last season, and the offensive line remains one of the strengths of the team.

If Williams emerges immediately, Notre Dame could continue controlling games on the ground.

Game scripts also matter.

Rice, Stanford, Boston College and several other opponents could produce situations where Notre Dame builds a large lead and reduces Carr’s second-half passing attempts.

Carr had only five completions for 49 yards against Syracuse last season because the Irish dominated the game without needing him to throw.

That could happen multiple times again.

Notre Dame’s defense could also create short fields, further reducing passing-yardage opportunities.

Projection: 3,000-3,150 Passing Yards

Bet: Over 2,899.5 Passing Yards

Confidence: 7.5/10

Prop Bet #3: Notre Dame Over 1,949.5 Team Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Notre Dame Over 1,949.5 Team Rushing Yards

• Elite Offensive Line
• Aneyas Williams’ Explosive Production
• Deep Running Back Rotation

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Losing Love and Price makes this wager look much more difficult than it actually is.

Notre Dame rushed for more than 200 yards per game last season while averaging 5.69 yards per attempt.

The Irish don’t need to maintain that production to clear 1,949.5.

They need approximately 163 rushing yards per game.

That gives Notre Dame a significant margin for regression.

Williams also demonstrated legitimate explosiveness.

He averaged 9.3 yards per carry while rushing for 224 yards and five touchdowns last season.

Nobody should expect him to maintain nine yards per attempt with a full workload.

He doesn’t have to.

If Williams becomes an 800-900-yard runner and the rest of the rotation combines for another 800-900, Notre Dame can surpass the number with help from Carr and other contributors.

Most importantly, the offensive line remains excellent.

Knapp and Lambert return from a group that produced one of the country’s highest yards-per-carry averages.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Love and Price were special.

There is no way around that.

Love rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Price added 674 yards and 11 scores.

That is an enormous amount of proven production to replace.

Williams enters the season with only 48 career rushing attempts across his first two years.

Producing 9.3 yards per carry as a change-of-pace back is much different from handling 15 or 20 attempts against a defense specifically preparing to stop you.

The depth behind Williams is also inexperienced.

If the new running backs struggle, Denbrock may respond by putting more of the offense on Carr’s arm.

That would benefit the passing-yardage Over but hurt this wager.

Projection: 2,050 Team Rushing Yards

Bet: Over 1,949.5 Team Rushing Yards

Confidence: 7/10

Prop Bet #4: Notre Dame Over 49.5 Offensive Touchdowns

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Notre Dame Over 49.5 Offensive Touchdowns

• CJ Carr Returns
• Elite Offensive Line
• Multiple Explosive Receiving Options

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Notre Dame scored at an elite rate last season.

The Irish ranked near the top of college football at 41.8 points per game, while Carr threw 24 touchdown passes and the running game produced 38 rushing touchdowns.

Even significant regression would leave Notre Dame capable of reaching 50 offensive touchdowns.

Carr should improve in his second full season as the starter.

Faison returns as his leading receiver.

Greathouse is healthy after missing most of last season.

Graham and Porter give Notre Dame additional high-upside options.

Williams has also shown a nose for the end zone.

He scored five touchdowns on only 24 carries last season.

The schedule provides opportunities for big offensive performances as well.

Rice, Stanford and Boston College are all home games, while Notre Dame will likely be favored in most of its schedule.

The Irish need to average approximately 4.2 offensive touchdowns per game to reach 50.

That is aggressive, but reasonable for a team with national championship talent.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Replacing 29 rushing touchdowns from Love and Price creates the obvious concern.

Those two players were extraordinary around the goal line and in the open field.

Notre Dame could maintain excellent yardage totals while becoming less efficient at finishing drives.

The schedule also contains several opponents capable of forcing the Irish to work for points.

Wisconsin, BYU, Miami and SMU could all create more competitive games than some of Notre Dame’s easier 2025 matchups.

The Irish may also become slightly more dependent on field goals if Williams and the new backfield don’t immediately develop the same short-yardage reliability.

Scoring 35 points per game does not automatically guarantee more than 49 offensive touchdowns because defensive and special-teams scores can contribute to the overall scoring average.

Projection: 52-54 Offensive Touchdowns

Bet: Over 49.5 Offensive Touchdowns

Confidence: 6.5/10

Best Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2026 Prop Bet

Carr’s passing-yardage Over is the Notre Dame offensive wager I trust the most.

The number does not require a massive breakout.

Carr already produced 2,741 yards in his first season as a starter.

He needs roughly 160 additional yards across 12 games to surpass 2,899.5.

That is manageable.

Carr should be a more experienced quarterback.

Faison returns after a 640-yard season.

Greathouse essentially becomes another addition after injuries limited him to four games last year.

Graham and Porter add two former five-star prospects to the receiver room.

The departure of Love and Price should also create additional passing opportunities.

Notre Dame will still run the football.

But asking Williams and an inexperienced group of backs to immediately reproduce the production of two NFL draft picks would be unrealistic.

That makes Carr the logical player to absorb more offensive responsibility.

Conclusion

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter the 2026 season as one of the clearest national championship contenders in college football.

The offense has one enormous advantage compared with many teams replacing star players: the quarterback isn’t one of them.

CJ Carr returns after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing 66.7% of his passes during his first season as the full-time starter.

That gives Notre Dame an established foundation.

The receiving corps should be better.

Jordan Faison is coming off career highs of 49 receptions and 640 yards. Jaden Greathouse returns after injuries derailed most of his 2025 season, and transfers Mylan Graham and Quincy Porter give the Irish two former Ohio State receivers with significant recruiting upside.

The offensive line may be even more important.

Anthonie Knapp enters the season as a preseason All-American after starting 29 games over his first two seasons, while Guerby Lambert returns after starting every game at right guard last year.

That group helped Notre Dame average 5.69 yards per carry and surrender only one sack per game in 2025.

The one major concern is obvious.

Replacing Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price will be extremely difficult.

Love rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Price added 674 yards and 11 rushing scores.

Aneyas Williams has shown tremendous potential, averaging 9.3 yards per carry last season, but he now has to prove he can produce with a much larger workload.

My projection has Notre Dame producing approximately 3,100 passing yards, 2,050 rushing yards and 52-54 offensive touchdowns while averaging 35-37 points per game.

That would represent regression from last season’s 41.8-point offense.

It would also still make Notre Dame one of the most dangerous offensive teams in college football.

The more interesting betting question is the win total.

At 11.5 victories, Notre Dame is essentially being asked to complete a perfect regular season. BetMGM lists the Over at +150 and the Under as a significant favorite.

The schedule gives the Irish a legitimate opportunity.

Notre Dame avoids many of the nation’s traditional powerhouse programs and gets Miami and SMU at home. However, Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, BYU in Provo and the November matchup with Miami create enough danger that expecting perfection feels overly aggressive.

My prediction is 11-1.

That would cash the Under 11.5 wins while still potentially positioning Notre Dame for another serious College Football Playoff and national championship run.

From an offensive betting perspective, my strongest wager is CJ Carr Over 2,899.5 passing yards.

Carr is experienced.

The receiving corps is deep.

The offensive line should protect him.

And losing Love and Price should force Notre Dame to place slightly more responsibility on the quarterback.

The Fighting Irish may not duplicate the overwhelming rushing dominance of 2025, but this offense has the ingredients to become more balanced and potentially more dangerous through the air.

If Carr takes another step toward becoming an elite quarterback, Williams successfully takes over the backfield and the offensive line continues performing at a national level, Notre Dame has enough offensive firepower to make a legitimate run at the 2026 national championship.