COLUMBUS, OH - APRIL 16: Cayden Saunders #26 of the Ohio State Buckeyes runs with the ball during the The LiFEsports Spring Game, presented by Union Home Mortgage at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on April 16, 2022. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
10. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State
Win Total
10.5, 11, or 11.5ATS Pick It all depends
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to bet on this future over/under. It’s not a ploy to get out of the “it depends” call. It depends on where you find the win totals for the four powerhouses heading into 2022. If you get Alabama, Clemson and Georgia at 10.5 on
Draft Kings, then it’s a solid bet. If you get those four (or any other) at 11 elsewhere, you should go under.
For the love of all things holy, true, and beautiful, if you can get any one of the four at 11.5 bet the under. If your team loses the under on 11.5, or if they win 12-0, you tip your cap.
It is asking too much of any team to win 11; you will most likely go under. Or, at best, you should push. 10.5, however…
Clemson won nine regular-season games last year without an offense. The D could be good enough to win the national title, the O will be better, and this team is not expected to be an underdog outside of the trip to Notre Dame.
Although Ohio State’s schedule doesn’t look like a layup, it has a talent pool that is far superior to the rest of the Big Ten. Although the Dawgs won’t be unbeaten, it will take something significant for them to lose two games. Nick Saban has made Alabama never losses two of its regular season games. Don’t forget about the Georgia talent that was lost.
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UConn may be more successful with Jim Mora Jr. as the head coach, while UMass will get a D under Don Brown, but both teams will struggle to win three games.
UConn may beat Central Connecticut State, but the winnable FIU match is on the road. It will be a double-digit underdog to everyone, except for…
UMass should be capable of beating Stony Brook. But that’s not an automatic win. Although it can beat New Mexico State at its home, the Minuteman talent level must be far superior to make them a formidable opponent against all other teams.
ULM at 2.5 is a bit more dangerous than you might think. It should beat Nicholls State and Texas State. However, it will need to win three. You’ll need to work hard to get one.
UMass and UConn are still making the call of under
Now, onto the 2.5 Power Five Teams
8. Arizona, Kansas, Vanderbilt
Win Total 2.ATS Pick Over, Under, Over
It’s just as tricky for a superpower on 11 to get over; as it is for one of the Power Five programs on 3 to go under.
Last year, I begged my friends to get crazy about Kansas on 1.5. It couldn’t even get past South Dakota and couldn’t win another game into November. The Texas Miracle was then won – a 57 to 56 overtime victory.
Kansas will not be favored against any Big 12 team this year. No. It is unlikely to cause an upset. It is almost certain. It will likely beat Tennessee Tech, and the home match against Duke is closer to 50/50 than you might imagine.
Will Vanderbilt win an SEC championship? It didn’t win last year and won’t work in 2020. It will beat Elon and should at most split the road games against Hawaii or Northern Illinois. However, you could win both and cash out in mid-September. Vanderbilt, you’re an SEC team – act like it.
At 2.5, Arizona is the best. Although it was in complete rebuilding last year, it performed better than the 1-11 record would indicate – it couldn’t even close. Although COVID decimated the Cal team, it did win the one-off victory. However, with the talent help of the transfer portal, overall play should be much better.
There is no sure thing win, but the opener is at San Diego State. Mississippi State will be coming to Tucson, and it is crazy to expect a win against North Dakota State. You can still go.
7. North Carolina State
Win Total
8. ATS Pick Over
It’s possible that NC State will be the second-best team in the ACC this year behind Clemson.
If everyone is healthy, then the linebacking corps may be the best in America. Devin Leary, a great veteran quarterback, is an excellent choice, and the schedule isn’t too bad.
Add in a Clemson loss, and the ACC will have at least one more defeat. However, the non-conference slate doesn’t look bad – even if it’s right to be afraid of the opener at East Carolina and the home match against Texas Tech.
Last year, the team won nine times. This year’s team is even more talented and should win more.
6. Louisiana Tech
Win Total
4. ATS Pick Over
The 2021 rebuilding season was a blip for a program which hadn’t had a losing season since 2013. It was 3-9 last year, but that is about to change.
Sonny Cumbie, the new head coach, could have easily been the Texas Tech head man. Now comes the offensive upgrade.
Another important aspect is the departure of Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Miss from Conference USA to the Sun Belt. The conference slate suddenly looks much easier, and the team is much better.
It’s like this: There are three possible losses at Missouri and Clemson and nine 50/50 games. At least five of these will be won by the Bulldogs.
Stephen F. Austin should be a win, but it’s not a guarantee. UTEP, Rice at FIU, Middle Tennessee at Charlotte, North Texas at Charlotte, UAB – any of these could be won.
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You need to do more analysis, and it’s not okay to guess. But it’s Northwestern, and Pat Fitzgerald and this program can rise and rock when expectations are low.
It’s as simple as this. Last year, Northwestern was terrible. The defense was weak, and the offense was terrible, but the team won three games.
The lines are better, running should be more efficient, and no Fitzgerald team is going to field a defense as than twice in a row.
Would you be shocked if the Wildcats defeated Nebraska in their season opener in Dublin, Ireland? They should beat Duke and Southern Illinois at home. All you need to win is one more place to win, and you’ll likely get at least two.
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4. Washington State
Win Total 5.ATS Pick Over
Perhaps the strange Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl defeat to Central Michigan got everyone scared.
Washington State is full of talent and will be just as strong as last year’s 7-5 regular season. It also got a significant upgrade at the quarterback position.
Cameron Ward was a great all-around player in the FCS last season at Incarnate word. The Cougar attack is going to be a success with Ward.
Are you positive Washington State will win Week 2 over Wisconsin? No. Do I worry Ward could throw for a gazillion yards against a Badger secondary with a great D, which has always had problems against high-powered passers? Yeah.
Idaho, Colorado State, Cal. These three should win. Two of these four should be wins for Washington State: Arizona State at Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State at Stanford, Arizona.
You can expect an upset or two if Ward is genuinely as good as he claims.
3. Pitt
Win Total
8. ATS Pickunder
Kedon Slovis is something I believe in.
The USC transfer was a great deal for Pitt’s offense. Talent-wise, there is a lot of potential to increase production. Remember that Kenny Pickett wasn’t a great guy. He didn’t throw more than 13 touchdown passes in his first four seasons. Then it all started to happen last year.
Do you think Slovis could throw 42 touchdown passes as Pickett did in 2021? Nope.
Do you think Pitt could easily replace Jordan Addison, the Biletnikoff winner and the nation’s top receiver who’s currently at USC? Nope.
Was Pitt able to win more than eight games in any one regular season between 2010 and 2020? No.
Although the team is expected to be strong again, the opener against West Virginia is a serious threat. At the same time, the date with Tennessee is a major problem – even though they are both at home – and none of the ACC road matches against Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia are guaranteed.
It is likely that the Panthers will lose two of those conference road games.
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Last year’s Army team won eight regular-season games, nine overall, and a win against Missouri in the Armed Forces Bowl. These are strong returns.
Last year’s team won eight games. Although it might seem daunting, even for Army, this year’s schedule doesn’t include a road game against Wisconsin. The Ball State loss was unexpected, and the Navy game is always a tossup. This could be a turning point that could see the Navy team win.
The backstop is what makes the total at eight so appealing. Although the Black Knight may lose four games, it will take something more to lose five or more.
Wake Forest and Coastal Carolina. These are the only two games where Army is likely to be the underdog.
UTSA, Georgia State and Air Force – being held in Arlington, Texas – at Troy and the showdown against Navy Philadelphia. These are the 50/50 games. Everything else is almost inevitable.
Let’s say there is a base of five wins. There will likely be at least three wins from those five fairly even games. If Army loses at Villanova, Colgate or ULM, UConn or UMass, you will be completely shocked.
Army will be closer to a ten-win team if everything goes according to plan than enduring a 7-5 grind.
1. Iowa
Win Total 7.ATS Pick Over
Because that’s what the University of Iowa does, they win at least seven games yearly.
Kirk Ferentz is the Hawkeyes’ head coach. When was the last time they won less than seven regular-season games?
The 2020 exception is not included – even though Iowa went 6-2 in an 8-game season, you need to go back to 2012 for the 4-8 clunker to see the last time Iowa didn’t win at least seven regular-season wins. It was 2007 before that.
The team won ten regular-season games last year, but that was without any passing game. This was in addition to an unusually miserable offensive line year.
The defense is loaded this year, and the offense cannot be
so miserable.
It is almost sure that Iowa will lose the Ohio State road game, but everything else is still possible.
Iowa City is at home against Michigan. Also, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa State are at home. Road games at Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern are manageable. It’s not unreasonable to expect at least a split with Minnesota and Purdue in Iowa City.
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