The Sun Came Up and Indiana Responded to the Test

Indiana has spent the last two weeks facing the kind of competition that reveals a team’s identity. Ohio State exposed the Hoosiers’ offensive vulnerabilities from a lack of execution standpoint in a 19-15 loss that ended their 22-game winning streak. A week later, Indiana responded by winning 13-6 in overtime at Michigan, earning its first victory in Ann Arbor since 1967. Indiana did this with Josh Hoover playing through an undisclosed injury and the defense showing why it is the best in the country.

The takeaway isn’t that every concern has disappeared. It’s that Indiana’s defense, physicality and ability to win uncomfortable games give the Hoosiers a foundation to build on as they prepare for the back half of the season. Below are thoughts on Indiana the past couple of weeks and areas to pay attention to moving into a game against Minnesota.

1. Ohio State exposed the questions Indiana still needs to answer

The loss to Ohio State was a reminder of just how thin the margin can be against elite competition.

Indiana had opportunities to win, but the offense couldn’t consistently turn those opportunities into points. Add in two missed field goals, two turnovers and difficulties in the punt return game, which made it difficult to overcome woes in the run game. The Buckeyes won 19–15, ending Indiana’s 22-game winning streak and forcing the Hoosiers to confront some difficult questions about their offensive execution.

Can Indiana consistently establish the run in different ways versus 11 personnel?

How effectively can the offensive line create movement against elite defensive fronts, specifically in the interior?

Can Josh Hoover stay comfortable when defenses disrupt his timing and pressure the pocket in passing down situations?

One important distinction: struggling against Ohio State doesn’t automatically mean Indiana has a flawed offense. It means the Hoosiers have to show they can adjust when their preferred approach isn’t working through different formations and overall approach. Indiana has not attacked the perimeter in the run game or screen game to this point in the season.

2. The win at Ann Arbor showed the championship value of Indiana’s defense

Indiana’s response at Michigan was about as dramatic a contrast as you could imagine.

The Hoosiers won 13–6 in overtime despite finishing with just 212 total yards. Josh Hoover was clearly affected by the physical toll of the Ohio State game, completing eight of 18 passes for 81 yards and throwing his first interception of the season. He did not look as accurate and seemed at times to struggle with his delivery. However, Indiana did have better success in the run game, but failed to score in redzone opportunities. A limited Hoover presented a difficult opportunity to move the ball and made Indiana more one dimensional against a Michigan Wolverine defense who is a top 5 defense in the country.

The offense struggled, but the defense kept Indiana alive. Tobi Osunsanmi recorded two sacks, including a crucial 13-yard takedown that helped keep Michigan from taking control. His continued production is becoming one of the most important storylines of Indiana’s season. He is currently on track to break Greg Middleton’s single season sack record (16 sacks) if he continues on his current production tract. He continues to prove that he is one of the top pass rushers in the country with 9 sacks and 13.5 TFLS midway through the season. He is ranked second in the country in both sacks and tackles for a loss (TFLs) only behind Texas’s Colin Simmons who has 10.5 sacks and 16 TFLS.

Rolijah Hardy continues to show why he is an All-American caliber linebacker.  Hardy finished with nine tackles and two sacks. His pressure helped disrupt Michigan’s offense and contributed to the Hoosiers surviving a game in which their own offense struggled to find rhythm. Hardy currently has 60 tackles, 2 sacks, 5.5 TFLs, and 1 int on the season.

Amare Ferrell intercepted Michigan quarterback Tommy Carr which is interception number three on the season for him. Isaiah Jones recovered a fumble and added eight tackles with 1.5 TFLs on the day.. Those defensive plays helped set up scoring opportunities when Indiana desperately needed them. The Hoosiers finished with four sacks and 10 tackles for loss, holding Michigan to 224 total yards.

Indiana doesn’t have to play a perfect offensive game to win, but it needs its defense to keep dictating terms when the offense is struggling. Hoover needs to improve his health and find his confidence within the offense for Indiana to make another National Championship run.

3. The offensive concerns have continued to surface since Nebraska.

Indiana deserves credit for winning at Michigan, but 13 points and 212 yards aren’t sustainable offensive benchmarks against the best teams in the country.

Hoover’s health is a major variable. His performance against Michigan shouldn’t be evaluated in isolation from the physical punishment he absorbed against Ohio State and the injury concerns that limited him during the week. Hoover has struggled, no doubt, but he is much better than the performance he put on against Michigan. Inaccuracy and sailing the ball above receivers needs to improve for Indiana to continue on their path of title contention.

4. Looking ahead to a Halloween matchup against Minnesota.

College Gameday has announced that it will be in Bloomington this coming weekend as Indiana hosts Minnesota. Indiana will look to improve on their offensive woes as Minnesota is coming off a big win against #15 Iowa. Minnesota comes into Bloomington with a record of 5-2 with wins over Iowa, Michigan, and Washington. Currently, Indiana is favored by 20.5 points. I have seen Minnesota play live this year as I joined my wife’s family in West Lafayette a few weeks ago as Purdue beat Minnesota 41-13. Minnesota has had offensive woes averaging 15.3 points per game over the last three weeks. The keys to the game are simple against Minnesota. Take away their run game and make them one dimensional. Win the special teams and turnover margin.

Here are the questions going into the game for Indiana:

Run game and Offensive line: Can Indiana generate more consistent movement in the run game continuing to mix up attacking the perimeter and running inside the tackles?

Quarterback: Do you play Wilson to allow  Hoover to rest going into the bye week. Allow him to heal and regain his timing, accuracy and confidence going into the final stretch of the season?

Explosive plays: Can Becker and Marsh be used differently in the short passing game to stretch the field to prevent defenses from crowding the box?

Indiana’s offense doesn’t necessarily need to return to putting up huge numbers every week. It does need to become more dependable in the pass game when the defense can’t be expected to carry the entire game. The run game has not shown that it consistently score 20+ points this season.

The key for Indiana is to avoid treating the Michigan victory as the solution to every problem.

After two emotionally demanding games against Ohio State and Michigan, this matchup tests the team’s ability to reset, recover and execute against a different opponent.

Three things I’ll be watching:

1. The health of Josh Hoover. Indiana’s offensive ceiling changes significantly depending on how close he is to full strength. Will Indiana play Grant Wilson instead to allow Hoover to rest going into the bye week. They did this two years ago when Kurtis Rourke was injured. They played Tayven Jackson in a home victory against Washington and allowed time for Rourke to heal an additional week going into the bye week prior to returning.
2. The early-down offense. If Indiana can establish a credible run game and stay ahead of the chains, it can avoid obvious passing situations and open up the playbook with their new condensed formations. Indiana needs to find different ways to stay ahead of the chains.
3. Defensive consistency. The pass rush and turnover production have been outstanding storylines. Indiana has shown they are the best defense in the country. The next step is maintaining that impact with an offense that has struggle the last couple of weeks.

The most compelling argument coming out of these two games is that Indiana has demonstrated two different ways to compete.

Against Ohio State, the Hoosiers came up short in a close game. Against Michigan, they survived a severely limited offensive performance and found a way to win due to winning the turnover battle and being more efficient on special teams.

Neither result should be viewed in isolation. Together, they offer a clearer picture of where Indiana stands: a team with an elite defense, a quarterback whose health matters enormously, and an offense and special teams unit that still has to prove it can consistently execute against top-level competition.

The Minnesota game is an opportunity to demonstrate progress.

Indiana doesn’t need to win every game by dominating the box score. It does need to show that the offense can take a step forward, the defense can sustain its level of play, and the team can handle the emotional and physical demands of a long season.

The Michigan win was significant in keeping Indiana’s main season goals alive. What Indiana does next will help determine just how significant it becomes for Indiana to keep their conference and national championship hopes alive.