Stony Brook at Ball State 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, September 12, 2026 Time: 2:00 PM ET Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Indiana TV: ESPN+ Tickets: As low as $45 Line: Ball State -15.5 Moneyline: Ball State approximately -800 / Stony Brook +580Over/Under: 56.5

Ball State returns home looking for a major rebound when Stony Brook visits Scheumann Stadium for the Cardinals’ 2026 home opener.

Ball State enters 0-1 after a difficult 56-3 loss at No. 1 Ohio State. Quarterback Keldric Luster completed 18 of 33 passes for 89 yards in his first collegiate start, while the Cardinals were held to 165 total yards.

Stony Brook is 1-1 and has already played two high-scoring games, losing 41-34 to Delaware State before rallying past Lindenwood 36-32. Quarterback Quinn Boyd has thrown for 621 yards through two games, including 298 against Lindenwood, while receiver Seth Sweitzer exploded for 157 yards in Week 2.

The current market has Ball State around -15.5, with a total of 56.5.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props may not be offered for this matchup. The numbers below are projected betting targets.

Prop Bet #1: Keldric Luster Over 199.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Luster Over 199.5 Passing Yards

• Major Matchup Upgrade
• 33 Attempts at Ohio State
• Home Opener

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Luster’s 89-yard debut looks ugly, but the opponent matters.

Ohio State held Ball State to 120 total passing yards while pressuring the Cardinals throughout the afternoon. Stony Brook has allowed 468 passing yards through two games, giving Luster a dramatically easier matchup.

Ball State also let him attempt 33 passes in Columbus, showing confidence in the passing game despite the score.

Projected Bet: Keldric Luster Over 199.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Quinn Boyd Over 249.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Boyd Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• 621 Yards in Two Games
• 298 vs Lindenwood
• Likely High Passing Volume

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Boyd has cleared this number in both games.

He threw for 323 yards and three touchdowns against Delaware State before adding 298 yards and two touchdowns against Lindenwood.

If Stony Brook falls behind as expected, Boyd should again approach 35-to-40 attempts.

Projected Bet: Quinn Boyd Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: CJ Hester Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Hester Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

• 95 Yards vs Lindenwood
• Two TDs
• Three-Down Production

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Hester rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns against Lindenwood, including a 52-yard run.

Ball State surrendered 237 rushing yards to Ohio State, although that obviously came against elite Big Ten talent.

Stony Brook needs Hester to keep the Cardinals from simply attacking Boyd on obvious passing downs.

Projected Bet: CJ Hester Over 69.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #4: Over 56.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 56.5 Points

• Stony Brook Games Averaging 71.5 Points
• Explosive Passing Attack
• Ball State Matchup Upgrade

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Stony Brook’s games have produced 75 and 68 combined points.

The Seawolves have scored 34 and 36 themselves while allowing 41 and 32.

Ball State scored only three at Ohio State, but Stony Brook’s defense is a completely different challenge. The Cardinals should generate considerably more offense at home.

Bet: Over 56.5 Points

Players to Watch

Keldric Luster, QB, Ball State: Completed 18 passes in his first collegiate start and should have much more time to operate this week.

Tate Hoover, TE, Ball State: Led the Cardinals with five receptions at Ohio State and should remain one of Luster’s most reliable targets.

Cedric Franklin II, DB, Ball State: Recorded an interception against Ohio State and faces a pass-heavy Stony Brook offense.

Quinn Boyd, QB, Stony Brook: Has surpassed 290 passing yards in both games.

Seth Sweitzer, WR, Stony Brook: Caught 12 passes for 157 yards against Lindenwood.

CJ Hester, RB, Stony Brook: Produced 95 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 2.

Keys to the Game

Stony Brook

Boyd must continue attacking vertically while avoiding turnovers.

The Seawolves also need Hester to establish the run and help control possession. Defensively, Stony Brook must pressure Luster before Ball State’s offense develops confidence.

Ball State

Ball State’s priority is forgetting Ohio State.

The Cardinals now face an FCS defense that has allowed 73 points in two games, making this a much better opportunity for Luster and the offense.

Defensively, Ball State must prevent Boyd and Sweitzer from turning the game into a shootout.

Betting Prediction

Ball State deserves to be favored at home, but 15.5 points is substantial against a Stony Brook team capable of scoring.

The Seawolves already average 35 points per game and have a quarterback who has thrown for more than 600 yards.

Ball State should still win because of its FBS depth, home-field advantage and significant step down in competition after Ohio State.

But Stony Brook has enough offensive firepower to remain inside the number.

The Verdict

Expect Ball State’s offense to look dramatically better than it did in Columbus.

Luster should find easier completions, while the Cardinals establish enough rushing production to build a second-half lead.

Stony Brook will answer through Boyd, Sweitzer and Hester and keep the game competitive longer than a 15.5-point spread suggests.

Final Score Prediction: Ball State 38, Stony Brook 27

Best Bet: Over 56.5

Against the Spread: Stony Brook +15.5

Moneyline: Ball State

Top Player Prop: Quinn Boyd Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: Keldric Luster Over 199.5 Passing Yards | CJ Hester Over 69.5 Rushing Yards