No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, September 19, 2026 Time: 3:30 PM ET Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Kentucky TV: ESPN or ESPN2 Tickets: As low as $36 Line: Louisville -1.5 Over/Under: 59.5

One of the most intriguing ACC games of the weekend takes place in Louisville as No. 16 SMU visits No. 23 Louisville.

SMU enters 2-0 after following a dramatic 27-24 victory at Florida State with a 56-10 rout of UC Davis. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been spectacular, throwing for 430 yards and three touchdowns at Florida State before producing 337 yards and five touchdown passes against UC Davis.

Louisville is 1-1 after rebounding from a 41-38 loss to Ole Miss with a 59-13 victory over Villanova. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns against Villanova after passing for 307 against Ole Miss, making him the first Louisville quarterback to top 300 passing yards in each of his first two starts.

The supplied Louisville -1.5 / 59.5 remains available around the market, although some books have moved Louisville as high as -2.5.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props may vary by sportsbook. The numbers below are projected betting targets unless your book offers them.

Prop Bet #1: Kevin Jennings Over 299.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Jennings Over 299.5 Passing Yards

• 767 Yards in Two Games
• Eight TD Passes
• High-Scoring Matchup

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Jennings has already thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns through two games.

Louisville allowed Ole Miss to throw for 336 yards in the opener, and SMU possesses enough speed at receiver to create similar problems.

With a close spread and a total near 60, Jennings should remain aggressive for four quarters.

Projected Bet: Kevin Jennings Over 299.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: Lincoln Kienholz Over 279.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Kienholz Over 279.5 Passing Yards

• Back-to-Back 300-Yard Games
• 639 Yards Total
• Explosive Louisville Offense

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Kienholz has thrown for 639 yards through two starts, clearing 300 against both Ole Miss and Villanova.

SMU’s offense puts pressure on opponents to keep scoring, and Louisville should need Kienholz throwing deep into the fourth quarter.

Projected Bet: Lincoln Kienholz Over 279.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Yannick Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

• 107 Yards at Florida State
• Explosive Deep Threat
• Jennings Connection

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Smith opened the season with five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown, including a 79-yard reception against Florida State.

Louisville surrendered several explosive passing plays against Ole Miss, making Smith one of the most dangerous matchup pieces on the field.

Projected Bet: Yannick Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4: Over 59.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Over 59.5 Points

• Two Hot Quarterbacks
• SMU Scored 83 in Two Games
• Louisville Averaging 48.5

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These offenses are built for a shootout.

SMU has scored 83 points in two games, while Louisville has scored 97, including 59 against Villanova and 38 against Ole Miss.

Both quarterbacks are producing explosive plays, and neither side should be comfortable trying to protect a small lead.

Bet: Over 59.5 Points

Players to Watch

Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU: Has thrown eight touchdown passes through two games.

Yannick Smith, WR, SMU: Explosive receiver who produced 107 yards at Florida State.

Randy Pittman Jr., TE, SMU: Opened the season with five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown.

Lincoln Kienholz, QB, Louisville: Back-to-back 300-yard passing performances to begin his Louisville career.

Lawayne McCoy, WR, Louisville: Produced 102 yards against Villanova after scoring on a 54-yard reception against Ole Miss.

Marquise Davis, RB, Louisville: Rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns against Villanova.

Keys to the Game

SMU

SMU must protect Jennings and continue generating explosive passing plays.

The Mustangs also need to clean up turnovers after committing four at Florida State despite still producing 585 yards.

Louisville

Louisville must pressure Jennings and prevent SMU from controlling the game through the air.

Offensively, Kienholz needs to continue protecting the football. Louisville has not committed a turnover through its first two games, an important advantage in what projects as a one-possession contest.

Betting Prediction

SMU has dominated the series, holding a 4-0 all-time advantage, including victories of 34-27 in 2024 and 38-6 last season.

But this Louisville offense looks considerably more dangerous with Kienholz at quarterback.

Home field, explosive receivers and Louisville’s early-season ball security give the Cardinals a slight edge, but this feels like a game decided in the final five minutes.

The strongest betting angle is the total.

The Verdict

Expect Jennings and Kienholz to trade explosive plays throughout the afternoon.

SMU’s recent dominance in the series makes the Mustangs dangerous, but Louisville’s home field and balanced offense provide just enough separation late.

Final Score Prediction: No. 23 Louisville 34, No. 16 SMU 31

Best Bet: Over 59.5

Against the Spread: Louisville -1.5

Moneyline: Louisville

Top Player Prop: Kevin Jennings Over 299.5 Passing Yards

Additional Props: Lincoln Kienholz Over 279.5 Passing Yards | Yannick Smith Over 64.5 Receiving Yards