San José State at No. 14 USC 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Time: 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California TV: NBC Tickets: As low as $14 on the secondary market; official USC tickets from $50+ Betting Line: No. 14 USC -38.5 Over/Under: 59.5 Points

The 2026 college football season begins in Los Angeles when No. 14 USC hosts San José State in a Week 0 matchup at the Coliseum.

USC is 6-0 all-time against the Spartans, including a 56-28 victory in their most recent meeting in 2023. The betting market expects another decisive Trojans win, with USC favored by 38.5 points.

The confidence begins with quarterback Jayden Maiava, who threw for 3,711 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season while leading the nation with a 91.2 QBR.

USC also returns running back King Miller, who rushed for 972 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.2 yards per carry as a freshman.

San José State is rebuilding after a 3-9 season and has added several transfers, including former Hawai’i quarterback Luke Weaver. Ken Niumatalolo’s team faces a massive challenge against USC’s experience, depth and explosiveness.

Top Four Prop Bets

Player props vary by sportsbook and jurisdiction. These numbers should be treated as projected betting targets unless your sportsbook offers the exact lines.

Prop Bet #1: Jayden Maiava Over 249.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Maiava Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• 3,711 Yards in 2025
• 91.2 QBR
• Elite USC Passing Attack

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Maiava averaged 285.5 passing yards per game last season while starting all 13 games for USC.

Lincoln Riley’s offense averaged 296 passing yards and 35.8 points per game, and USC should have opportunities to create explosive plays against a San José State defense facing a major talent disadvantage.

The concern is game script. If USC leads by four or five touchdowns early in the second half, Maiava may give way to backups Sam Huard or Jonas Williams.

USC also lost star receiver Makai Lemon to the NFL, forcing the Trojans to reshape their receiving corps.

Still, 250 yards is attainable before the game becomes a blowout.

Projected Bet: Jayden Maiava Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #2: King Miller Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Miller Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

• 972 Yards in 2025
• 6.2 YPC
• Breakaway Running Ability

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Miller emerged as one of USC’s biggest surprises last season, rushing for 972 yards on 156 carries.

His 6.2 yards-per-carry average makes this projected line appealing because he does not require a massive workload to reach 75 yards.

USC should control the line of scrimmage and lean more heavily on the running game once it establishes a lead. At last season’s average, 13 carries would put Miller above 80 yards.

The risk is another blowout scenario. USC has several backs who need playing time, so Miller could be rested early.

His efficiency, however, makes the over attractive.

Projected Bet: King Miller Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Tanook Hines Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Hines Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

• 561 Yards in 2025
• 16.5 Yards Per Catch
• Expanded Role After Lemon

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Tanook Hines enters 2026 with an opportunity to become one of USC’s most important receivers.

He caught 34 passes for 561 yards as a true freshman, averaging 16.5 yards per reception.

With Lemon gone, USC must replace more than 1,100 receiving yards. Hines is one of the most logical candidates to absorb additional targets because he already has experience in Riley’s offense and familiarity with Maiava.

At his 2025 average, three catches would produce nearly 50 yards.

USC’s deep receiver room could limit his opportunities if the game becomes one-sided, but his expected expanded role makes 44.5 manageable.

Projected Bet: Tanook Hines Over 44.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4: Game Total Under 59.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 59.5 Points

• Huge USC Spread
• SJSU Offensive Rebuild
• Blowout Clock-Killing Potential

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USC could score 45 or 50 points and still leave this matchup under the total.

San José State enters with significant offensive turnover and uncertainty at quarterback. Weaver brings experience, but the Spartans must also replace major production from last season.

USC’s defense allowed 23 points and 350.8 yards per game in 2025 and should have a significant athletic advantage.

The likely game script also favors the under. If USC builds a huge second-half lead, Riley can run the football, rotate backups and drain the clock rather than maintaining an aggressive tempo.

San José State does have an explosive threat in running back Jabari Bates, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry last season, but reaching 17-to-20 points against USC is difficult to project.

Bet: Under 59.5 Points

Betting Prediction

USC should control this matchup from the opening quarter.

Maiava provides experience and proven production. Miller gives the Trojans an explosive rushing option, while Hines leads a talented receiving group that should generate big plays.

San José State has enough veteran talent to produce some offense. Bates is dangerous, and Weaver provides starting experience if he wins the quarterback job.

But keeping pace with USC for four quarters is a different challenge.

Expect Maiava to connect on several explosive passes early while Miller controls the ground game. By the third quarter, USC should have a large enough lead to begin rotating its backups.

That substitution pattern is why the under remains attractive despite USC’s offensive potential.

The Verdict

USC has overwhelming advantages in quarterback play, offensive explosiveness, depth and home field.

San José State may produce one or two productive early drives, but USC’s talent should eventually take control at the line of scrimmage and create separation.

The spread is enormous, but the Trojans have enough offensive depth to keep scoring even after the starters leave.

Final Score Prediction: No. 14 USC Trojans 49, San José State Spartans 10

Best Bet: Under 59.5

Against the Spread: USC -38.5

Top Player Prop: King Miller Over 74.5 Rushing Yards

Additional Props: Jayden Maiava Over 249.5 Passing Yards | Tanook Hines Over 44.5 Receiving Yards