This quarterfinal playoff is considered a mismatch. Maybe it shouldn’t be. Boise State has been favored in all but one game this season; that game was an early season tussle with now-number-one Oregon. The Broncos were 17.5-point dogs, and they easily covered and came close to winning the game. The Broncos feature Ashton Jeanty, who had one of the greatest seasons any running back has ever had in College Football history.
Penn State comes in with only losses to Ohio State and Oregon in two highly competitive games. QB Drew Allar has shown big-time improvement this season. The Nittany Lions are a power, run-the-ball-down-your-throat team, but with Allar’s improvement, their offense is much more complete this season. The big question here will be can James Franklin win a big game, sure he beat SMU but this game will be much tougher than that game against an SMU team that should not have made the playoffs.
Boise State Broncos vs Penn State Nittany Lions
- Point Spread: Penn State -11.5
- Moneyline Boise State +340
- Moneyline Penn State -450
- Over/Under 52.5
First-year starter Maddux Madsen has been good throughout the season, but Penn State’s defense will likely be keyed on just one key player: RB Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, has had a historic season, leading the nation in carries (344), rushing yards (2,497), and touchdowns (29).
For the Broncos to pull off the upset, Madsen must play well, especially on third down. The biggest issue for the Broncos will be in the trenches where the Nittany Lions are dominant and take over games and I expect that to happen in this game also.
Allar needs to play solid, smart football and not turn the ball over; if he does, Penn State wins. For Penn State to win a Natty, though, Allar will have to step up in the next two rounds and make some big-time plays if the Lions are to have a shot at bringing a title back home to Happy Valley.
Boise State vs Penn State Moneyline
Moneyline value exists on Boise State, and I think a clear path does exist where they could win this game, clear but narrow. The best bet in this game is using the point spread. To find the best line, you need accounts with multiple sportsbooks, and we got you covered as we break down the
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Tip: Bet Penn State -11.5
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Nittany Lions explosive on the ground
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Madsen must play well for Boise to have a chance
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Penn State better in the trenches
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Boise State vs Penn State Over/Under Analysis
I don’t expect a high-scoring game in this one, as both teams like to take their time and grind on each other. If Madsen comes up big, I expect a high-scoring game. I think Madsen plays well but not well enough to turn this into a shootout.
- Expect grind it out game
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turnovers will be key
- Can Boise throw?
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Boise State belongs in these playoffs, but not as a four-seed. Penn State is a little better at almost every position. Expect a close game until the fourth quarter when the Nittany Lions pull away. Penn State 34 Boise State 20
Bet Penn State -11.5
