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This Wednesday’s Holiday Bowl will see the Oregon Ducks play against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The game pits nine-win Pac-12 programs against an ACC one. The Ducks lost two of their last three games to Washington State and Oregon State. The Heels were also not strong and lost three straight games to Georgia Tech, North Carolina State and Clemson.
Both teams will be without key personnel and coordinators. Oregon’s offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham left to become the Arizona State head coach. He was replaced by Justin Flowe, Dont’e Thornton and NFL Draft hopefuls Christian Gonzalez, and Noah Sewell will not play. UNC will not have offensive coordinator Phil Longo. He left UNC to coach at Wisconsin. UNC holdouts will be Keeshawn Silber, Tony Grimes, Storm Duck, and NFL Draft hopeful Josh Downs.
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Oregon Ducks Betting Tips
Oregon couldn’t finish its season on a high note, falling to #25 Washington and losing its last three games. The other disappointment was the 49-3 loss to Georgia. The Ducks beat UCLA and Utah when they were ranked among the top ten. BYU was ranked 12th. Which Ducks team will be playing in San Diego on Wednesday?
Oregon lost the game to the Beavers in the fourth quarter. The Ducks held a lead of 31-10 in the third quarter and 34-17 in the fourth. However, they lost the game by giving short fields to the Beavers on three consecutive drives. OSU was able, on all three possessions, to score the touchdown without having to complete a single pass.
The Ducks still had a chance of winning the game and almost did. Bo Nix, Oregon’s quarterback, moved the offense to the Beavers’ two-yard line. However, the drive ended at fourth down due to an incomplete pass. Nix passed for 327 yards, two touchdowns, but a right ankle injury limited his performance.
Oregon has scored 39.7 points this season and averaged 507.8 yards per game. This includes 216.3 rushing yards and 291.5 passing yards. The Ducks rank 32nd in third-down conversion percentage (43.3%), and 73rd overall in red area scoring rate (82.4%).
Oregon’s defense gives up 27.4 points and 386.1 yards per game, which includes 125.5 rushing yards as well as 260.6 passing yards. It ranks 126th in opponent 3rd down conversion percentage (48.9%), and 20th overall in opponent red area scoring percentage (76.0%).
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The Tar Heels started 9-1, but they couldn’t maintain momentum. What UNC team will play in its bowl match after a disappointing 29-point loss against Clemson in the conference title game? The Tar Heels were not happy with the way their season ended. Clemson led UNC 24-10 at halftime, and they never looked back. UNC was outmatched, as three North Carolina turnovers were caused by the Clemson defense, which held UNC to just 3.1 yards per run on 36 rushing attempts. North Carolina averages 473.6 yards per game this season. This includes 156.4 rushing yards, 317.2 passing yards, and 35.0 points per contest. The Heels rank 23rd in scoring points, 9th in passing yards and 15th overall in total yards. QB Drake Maye leads a passing attack with 4,115 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also paces the ground game (653 rush yards and seven running TDs). North Carolina’s leading receiver Josh Downs is out, so Antoine Green will be looking to fill in the gaps (798 receiving yards, 7 TDs); UNC ranks 14th in third-down conversion percentage (46.5%) and 94th for red zone scoring percentage (79.6%). UNC’s defense gives up 31.0 points and 438.2 yards per game, which includes 161.8 rushing yards as well as 276.4 passing yards. They rank 90th in opponent third-down conversion percentage (41.4%), and 92nd overall in opponent red zone scoring percentage (86.6%).
Betting the game
Both teams are without key players and regular-season offensive coordinators. However, both quarterbacks are still playing. Nix and Maye can put on a good show but which defense will be able to stop their team from winning?
The Ducks’ defense in the red zone is superior to most teams with a “bend-but-don’t-break” mentality. UNC’s offense was also only ranked 94th in red-zone scoring percentage. The UNC defense was also ranked 92nd in opponent red zone scoring percentage. They will be playing without several defensive starters. I expect Oregon and Nix to capitalize on their red zone opportunities and convert them into touchdowns rather than field goals.
Prediction: Oregon Ducks 41 North Carolina Tar Heels 24(Take the Ducks -14 also bet the Under at 75)
Potential earnings
If you are betting on the Ducks to cover, the payoff will be solid, not great, and I think the Ducks will cover this game. For example, a few days before the game, the odds are averaging -102 if you are betting on the Ducks to cover. If you bet 100 on the Ducks -14, the payout would be around 96 dollars, which means you would get back the 100 you bet and the other 96 for winning the bet.
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