Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Odds Slightly Favor the Sooners

Oklahoma is a 51% favorite on Polymarket to beat No. 19 Ole Miss on Saturday, which is about as close to a coin flip as a market can get. Ole Miss vs Oklahoma kicks off at 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman.

The sportsbooks have not settled on a side either. Ole Miss opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and DraftKings listed the Rebels at -1.5 with a -115 moneyline on Tuesday. By Wednesday night, FanDuel’s moneyline had flipped to Oklahoma at -115 and Ole Miss at -104.

The two teams arrive from opposite directions. Ole Miss fell to 6-3 after a 42-7 loss to Georgia in Oxford, while Oklahoma climbed back above .500 with a 23-7 win at Florida. Here is how Ole Miss vs Oklahoma looks on paper.

Jason Witten has one game under his belt

Oklahoma’s offense is the reason this season has felt so uneven. The Sooners fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle on Nov. 2 after a 42-25 loss at South Carolina, when they ranked 15th of 16 SEC teams in scoring at 22.0 points per game.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables handed the play sheet to Jason Witten, the former Dallas Cowboys tight end who joined the staff as tight ends coach this season after coaching Liberty Christian School in Argyle, Texas. Witten had never called plays in college before this month.

“Just because you played all those years doesn’t mean you’re ready to do this,” Venables said on Nov. 2, before adding that Witten was excited and well qualified for the job under the circumstances.

The first game under Witten leaned on the clock and the defense. Oklahoma ran 40 times against 33 passes in Gainesville, and quarterback John Mateer added a season-high 56 rushing yards. The clinching drive went 89 yards in 20 plays and ate 12:45 off the clock, which Oklahoma called its longest drive in 54 years.

“The real challenge to know you’re stepping in the right direction is do it again,” Venables said this week. Oklahoma has not won back-to-back games all season.

Oklahoma’s defense is the best unit on the field

Venables’ defense has kept the Sooners in games all fall. Oklahoma allows 293.3 yards per game, 16th nationally, and Florida managed only 203 yards on 47 plays last week. The Sooners also rank third in adjusted EPA per play allowed and seventh in adjusted EPA per pass allowed, a measure of how much each snap helps or hurts a team’s scoring chances.

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 2,359 yards and 18 touchdowns with seven more on the ground, but he has also thrown nine interceptions. Ole Miss coach Pete Golding pushed back on the idea that all of them belong to his quarterback.

“A couple of them are batted balls, one being a dropped ball. So those aren’t on him,” Golding said Monday.

Even so, a defense this good against the pass punishes loose throws, and Ole Miss figures to get fewer chances than usual to make up for one.

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma comes down to possessions

Ole Miss ranks 130th nationally in time of possession, and its defense ranks 120th on third down, allowing conversions 43.8% of the time. A team that cannot get off the field is a bad fit against an offense that just held the ball for 15 more minutes than Florida.

Oklahoma still has to finish drives. The Sooners rank 114th in red zone scoring, and they have scored fewer than 30 points in every game except a Week 1 win over UTEP. Norman has not been a safe haven either, since Kentucky arrived in October facing what looked like a reality check and left with a 21-13 win.

Ole Miss averages 33.8 points per game and ranks 14th in adjusted EPA per play, which gives the Rebels the more dangerous offense by a wide margin. The gap between the two offenses is why Ole Miss vs Oklahoma is so hard to call, with one side built to score and the other built to keep the ball away.

Ole Miss won 34-26 in Norman in October 2025. A year later, Oklahoma is still looking for its first back-to-back wins of the season.