The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the 2026 college football season facing one of the most difficult defensive reloads in the country — but also possessing enough talent to potentially remain one of the nation’s elite units.

The standard Matt Patricia established during his first season as defensive coordinator was extraordinary.

Ohio State finished 2025 ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring defense at 9.3 points per game, No. 1 in total defense at 219.1 yards per game and No. 1 in passing defense at 129.7 yards per game. Opponents averaged only 89.4 rushing yards per game and scored just 12 offensive touchdowns during Ohio State’s 14-game season.

The Buckeyes also generated 35 sacks, intercepted eight passes and recovered seven fumbles.

Ohio State finished 12-2.

The defense was rarely the problem.

The Buckeyes held Texas to seven points.

Wisconsin scored zero.

Michigan scored nine.

Indiana scored 13 in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Even in Ohio State’s two losses, Indiana and Miami combined for only 37 points.

Now Patricia has to replace an extraordinary collection of NFL talent.

Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles were both top-seven NFL Draft picks. Caleb Downs went No. 11 overall. Kayden McDonald went in the second round. Davison Igbinosun was a second-round selection. Caden Curry was drafted after producing 11 sacks, and Lorenzo Styles Jr. also departed for the NFL. Seven of Ohio State’s 11 defensive starters were selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.

That would destroy most defenses.

Ohio State isn’t most programs.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. returns after producing 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

Eddrick Houston returns after recording three sacks in a rotational role.

Payton Pierce returns after collecting 43 tackles despite starting only three games.

Jaylen McClain returns after starting all 14 games and recording 53 tackles.

Jermaine Mathews Jr. returns after intercepting two passes.

And the Buckeyes supplemented those veterans with major transfer additions such as James Smith and Qua Russaw from Alabama.

The names are different.

The expectations are not.

Ohio State enters the season ranked No. 1 in the preseason Coaches Poll, demonstrating how highly the Buckeyes are regarded despite the defensive turnover.

Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Defensive Projections

Projected Record: 10-2

Projected Points Allowed Per Game: 14-17

Projected Total Defense: 275-300 yards per game

Projected Rushing Defense: 105-120 yards per game

Projected Passing Defense: 170-185 yards per game

Projected Team Sacks: 33-38

Projected Interceptions: 10-13

Projected Total Takeaways: 18-22

Projected Tackles for Loss: 80-90

Biggest Defensive Strength: Defensive-Line Talent and Secondary Depth

Biggest Defensive Question: Can Ohio State replace seven NFL Draft picks without suffering a major early-season decline?

Matt Patricia’s Ohio State Defense

Ohio State’s most important defensive returner isn’t a player.

It is Matt Patricia.

Patricia arrived in Columbus before the 2025 season after spending most of his career in the NFL, including 16 seasons with New England and six years as the Patriots’ defensive coordinator.

His first Ohio State defense immediately became the best statistical unit in college football.

Ohio State finished No. 1 nationally in scoring defense.

No. 1 in total defense.

No. 1 in passing defense.

No. 1 in opposing red-zone percentage.

And No. 1 in first downs allowed per game. Patricia finished as a finalist for the Broyles Award.

That is an important reason to believe the defense can survive massive personnel losses.

Ohio State isn’t changing systems.

Patricia isn’t installing his defense for the first time.

The terminology already exists.

The coaching staff remains largely intact.

Larry Johnson continues coaching the defensive line.

Tim Walton remains co-defensive coordinator and secondary/cornerbacks coach.

Matt Guerrieri coaches the safeties and coordinates the pass game.

James Laurinaitis remains the linebackers coach.

That continuity matters enormously.

Patricia also has flexibility.

His NFL background allows Ohio State to change fronts, disguise pressure and force quarterbacks to diagnose coverage after the snap.

Last season’s defense wasn’t dependent solely upon sacks or turnovers.

It simply made everything difficult.

Opponents averaged 4.0 yards per play.

They converted only 30.5% of third downs.

They averaged 2.9 yards per rushing attempt.

They completed just 60.8% of their passes.

And they scored touchdowns on only 10 of 27 red-zone possessions.

Those efficiency numbers are the real foundation.

Ohio State can lose NFL stars and still remain excellent if Patricia preserves that structure.

Ohio State Defensive Line Breakdown

Ohio State’s defensive line will look dramatically different without Kayden McDonald and Caden Curry.

But there is still considerable talent.

Start with Eddrick Houston.

Houston appeared in 13 games last season, made four starts and produced 21 tackles, four tackles for loss and three sacks.

His most encouraging performance came in the College Football Playoff loss to Miami.

Houston recorded five tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks while playing 56 snaps.

That performance could become a preview of 2026.

Houston is 6-foot-3 and approximately 304 pounds, giving Ohio State unusual versatility.

He can play inside.

He can reduce offensive running lanes.

And he has enough athleticism to generate pressure.

The Buckeyes also made one of their biggest transfer additions on the interior.

James Smith arrives from Alabama.

Smith appeared in all 15 games for the Crimson Tide last season, starting 12, and finished with 28 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. He previously produced 20 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss during the 2024 season.

That is exactly the type of player Ohio State needed.

Smith doesn’t need an adjustment period to major-college football.

He has already played SEC offensive lines.

He has already faced Georgia.

Tennessee.

LSU.

Oklahoma.

Auburn.

He understands high-level physical football.

Ohio State also added John Walker from UCF, another veteran interior option who has been working with Johnson during preseason camp. Walker described the group’s objective as creating havoc inside.

The depth extends further.

Will Smith Jr.

Jason Moore.

Emanuel Ruffin.

Young players competing for rotational roles.

Ohio State doesn’t have another proven Kayden McDonald entering the season.

That is a significant loss.

But Houston and James Smith potentially give the Buckeyes two disruptive interior players.

If they consistently collapse the pocket, Ohio State’s edge rushers become considerably more dangerous.

Ohio State Edge-Rusher Breakdown

This could become one of the most interesting position groups on the defense.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is the obvious starting point.

Jackson took a massive step forward in 2025.

After producing only 1.5 sacks during Ohio State’s national championship season in 2024, Jackson started all 14 games last year and finished with 28 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

The individual performances were encouraging.

Jackson recorded two sacks against Penn State.

He produced sacks against Washington and Wisconsin.

He sacked Michigan.

And he produced another sack against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Now the role changes.

Curry is gone.

Reese is gone.

Styles is gone.

Jackson becomes one of the players offenses will specifically identify in protection.

That is the next challenge.

Can he go from productive starter to premier pass rusher?

The Buckeyes believe enough in Jackson that he received preseason All-Big Ten recognition and was named to the Lott IMPACT Trophy watch list.

Then there is Qua Russaw.

Russaw transferred from Alabama and gives Ohio State another experienced edge athlete.

He appeared in nine games for Alabama during 2025 after playing 13 games in 2024, when he recorded 36 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, one sack, two interceptions and a forced fumble.

His raw sack numbers aren’t enormous.

His athletic profile is what makes him interesting.

Russaw said during August camp that his primary strengths are his speed off the edge and his relentless effort getting to the quarterback. He also indicated Ohio State plans to move him around on third downs.

That could make him an ideal Patricia chess piece.

The Buckeyes also have Beau Atkinson.

Atkinson recorded only one sack during his first Ohio State season, but his previous production at North Carolina shouldn’t be forgotten.

He produced 12 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks in 2024, ranking fifth in the ACC in sacks.

That gives Ohio State three edge defenders with meaningful pass-rushing evidence.

Jackson produced 6.5 sacks last year.

Atkinson has already produced 7.5 in a Power Four season.

Russaw adds SEC experience and athleticism.

Nobody has to produce Curry’s 11 sacks individually.

Ohio State can replace them collectively.

Projected Ohio State Team Sacks: 33-38

Kenyatta Jackson Jr.: Ohio State’s Defensive Breakout Candidate

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. may be the most important individual player on Ohio State’s defense in 2026.

Last season proved he can rush the passer.

Now he has to prove he can become the player offenses design protections around.

His improvement has been dramatic.

Jackson recorded 16 tackles and 1.5 sacks in 2024.

He followed that with 28 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks in 2025.

That progression makes seven or eight sacks realistic.

Ohio State also has enough talent around him to prevent constant double teams.

Houston can penetrate inside.

James Smith can generate interior pressure.

Russaw can attack from the opposite edge.

Atkinson has proven pass-rushing ability.

Patricia can also manufacture pressure.

If the Buckeyes force offensive linemen to identify multiple threats before the snap, Jackson should receive one-on-one opportunities.

His size also helps.

At 6-foot-6 and 263 pounds, he has the length to disrupt quarterbacks even when he doesn’t immediately win the rush.

The key will be consistency.

Ohio State doesn’t need one great two-sack game every month.

It needs Jackson affecting quarterbacks every Saturday.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. Projection: 35-42 tackles, 12-15 tackles for loss and 7-9 sacks.

Ohio State Linebacker Breakdown

This is where Ohio State faces its most dramatic personnel change.

Last year’s linebacker combination was extraordinary.

Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles became the first pair of Ohio State linebackers to earn First-Team All-America honors during the same season.

Reese also won Big Ten Linebacker of the Year.

Both became top-seven NFL Draft picks.

You don’t replace that easily.

But Ohio State has several intriguing candidates.

Start with Payton Pierce.

Pierce played in all 14 games last season but made only three starts.

He still finished with 43 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, an interception, forced fumble and fumble recovery.

That production becomes much more interesting when considering his limited starting opportunities.

Pierce recorded seven tackles in his first career start against Minnesota.

Six against Penn State.

Six against Purdue.

He intercepted a pass against Illinois.

And he forced and recovered a fumble against Miami.

Now he gets the opportunity to become a full-time starter.

Preseason expectations are substantial.

The Athletic selected Pierce as a Preseason First-Team All-Big Ten linebacker.

The second linebacker position has more competition.

Christian Alliegro has received preseason All-Big Ten recognition.

Garrett Stover is another candidate.

Ohio State also has TJ Alford, Ty Howard and one of the nation’s most talented freshmen in Cincere Johnson, the No. 1-ranked player in Ohio in his recruiting class.

There will be growing pains.

Reese and Styles played fast because they understood exactly what they were seeing.

Pierce’s job isn’t simply making tackles.

He must communicate.

Set the front.

Understand motion.

Recognize play-action.

Carry coverage.

And occasionally attack the quarterback.

The talent exists.

The experience isn’t comparable to last season.

That makes linebacker one of the biggest variables on Ohio State’s defense.

Payton Pierce Projection: 75-88 tackles, 6-8 tackles for loss, 2-4 sacks and multiple forced turnovers.

Ohio State Secondary Breakdown

Losing Caleb Downs would devastate almost every secondary in college football.

Downs wasn’t simply good.

He won the Jim Thorpe Award, earned unanimous All-America recognition and was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year before becoming the No. 11 overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Ohio State also lost Davison Igbinosun and Lorenzo Styles Jr.

And yet the secondary still looks talented.

Start with Jaylen McClain.

McClain started all 14 games last season and finished with 53 tackles and three pass breakups, earning Third-Team All-Big Ten honors.

He is now one of the veteran leaders.

The preseason recognition reflects that.

McClain was selected as a Preseason First-Team All-Big Ten safety by The Athletic.

He may not have Downs’ extraordinary ball production.

He does have experience.

Fourteen starts matter.

Playing against Texas matters.

Michigan matters.

Indiana in the Big Ten Championship matters.

Miami in the playoff matters.

McClain has already experienced the environments Ohio State expects to encounter again.

At cornerback, Jermaine Mathews Jr. becomes the established veteran.

Mathews started all 14 games in 2025 and recorded 26 tackles, two interceptions, three pass breakups and one sack.

He intercepted Texas in the season opener and produced another interception against Purdue.

Mathews enters 2026 on the Lott IMPACT Trophy watch list and received preseason second-team All-Big Ten recognition.

Then there is Devin Sanchez.

Sanchez appeared in 13 games as a true freshman and accumulated 15 tackles, two pass breakups and a fumble recovery.

At 6-foot-2 and 199 pounds, Sanchez has the physical profile Ohio State wants on the outside.

The opportunity increases dramatically now that Igbinosun is gone.

Ohio State also brought in talented freshmen and maintains tremendous depth throughout the defensive-back room.

One name worth remembering is Jay Timmons, the No. 1-ranked cornerback in the 2026 recruiting class. Timmons recorded four interceptions, 10 pass breakups and three forced fumbles during his junior high-school season.

Expecting a freshman to immediately replace Downs would be ridiculous.

Ohio State doesn’t need that.

It needs McClain to become the veteran leader.

Mathews to become a legitimate No. 1 corner.

Sanchez to take the next step.

And the younger players to provide enough depth behind them.

The 2025 Buckeyes intercepted only eight passes despite possessing the nation’s best passing defense.

That creates room for increased turnover production even if the raw yardage numbers regress.

Projected Ohio State Interceptions: 10-13

Jermaine Mathews Jr.: Ohio State’s Defensive Wild Card

Jermaine Mathews Jr. has an opportunity to become one of the most important players on Ohio State’s defense.

He isn’t inexperienced.

He has already played two significant seasons.

He started 14 games last year.

And he has three career interceptions.

But his role changes dramatically.

With Igbinosun gone, Mathews becomes the veteran corner opponents will study.

That can work two ways.

Quarterbacks may avoid him.

Or elite offenses may deliberately test whether he can truly become Ohio State’s shutdown corner.

Texas will provide an early answer.

USC will test him.

Oregon will test him.

Michigan will test him.

The physical talent isn’t the concern.

The question is whether Mathews turns his experience into consistent high-level production.

Jermaine Mathews Jr. Projection: 30-38 tackles, 7-10 pass breakups and 2-4 interceptions.

Four Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Defensive Prop Bets

Note: Full-season college football defensive player and team props are not consistently offered at every sportsbook. The statistical defensive props below should therefore be treated as projection-based betting benchmarks rather than claims that every sportsbook currently lists these exact markets.

Prop Bet #1: Ohio State Over 31.5 Team Sacks

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Ohio State Over 31.5 Team Sacks

• 35 Sacks in 2025
• Kenyatta Jackson Returns
• Deep Transfer Defensive Front

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Ohio State recorded 35 sacks last season.

The Buckeyes lost enormous production.

But they also return Jackson.

He recorded 6.5 sacks.

Houston recorded three.

Atkinson has a previous 7.5-sack Power Four season on his résumé.

James Smith produced 2.5 sacks at Alabama last year.

Russaw gives Patricia another athletic edge option.

Ohio State also doesn’t need to recreate last year’s personnel structure.

Patricia can manufacture sacks.

Pressure can come from linebackers.

Safeties.

Overloads.

Simulated pressure.

The defensive line only needs to create enough one-on-one opportunities.

Thirty-two sacks over 12 regular-season games requires approximately 2.7 per game.

That is reasonable for this roster.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The departed production is enormous.

Curry alone produced 11 sacks last season.

Reese produced 6.5.

Ohio State is asking multiple players to replace proven NFL Draft picks.

Jackson is now the player opponents can specifically target in protection.

Atkinson produced only one sack during his first Ohio State season.

Russaw produced one at Alabama last year.

The potential is obvious.

The proven 2025 Ohio State production is not.

The schedule also includes quarterbacks from Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan who may use quick passing concepts specifically to neutralize Ohio State’s pressure.

Projection: 33-38 Team Sacks

Bet: Over 31.5 Team Sacks

Confidence: 7.5/10

Prop Bet #2: Kenyatta Jackson Jr. Over 6.5 Sacks

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Kenyatta Jackson Jr. Over 6.5 Sacks

• 6.5 Sacks in 2025
• Expanded Leadership Role
• Elite Defensive-Line Talent Around Him

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

Jackson recorded 6.5 sacks last season.

He only needs a modest improvement to reach seven.

His 11 tackles for loss demonstrate that he was already consistently creating negative plays.

He also performed against quality competition.

Penn State.

Michigan.

Indiana.

Washington.

Wisconsin.

The players around him could make the Over more achievable.

Houston provides interior pressure.

James Smith requires attention.

Russaw can attack from another edge.

Atkinson adds another veteran pass rusher.

Offenses cannot automatically double-team Jackson on every third down.

He should receive enough opportunities to produce seven or eight sacks.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Jackson is no longer playing next to Curry.

That changes protection.

Opposing offensive coordinators know exactly where Ohio State’s most productive returning edge rusher will be.

Extra blockers could consistently move toward him.

Patricia may also rotate heavily.

Russaw and Atkinson deserve snaps.

Young defensive ends need opportunities.

And Ohio State is preparing for another potentially extended postseason.

Keeping Jackson fresh may be more important than maximizing his regular-season sack total.

Projection: 7-9 Sacks

Bet: Over 6.5 Sacks

Confidence: 7.5/10

Prop Bet #3: Ohio State Over 9.5 Interceptions

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Ohio State Over 9.5 Interceptions

• Elite Pass Defense
• Veteran Starting Corners
• Increased Opportunity for Turnover Regression

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Why the Over Is a Good Bet

This may seem surprising because Ohio State intercepted only eight passes last season.

But that number actually creates the argument for improvement.

Ohio State had the best passing defense in college football and still intercepted fewer than 10 passes.

Mathews returns after intercepting two.

McClain brings 14 starts.

Sanchez has extensive freshman experience.

The defensive line should generate pressure.

And Ohio State continues recruiting elite defensive backs.

If Mathews reaches three interceptions and several other players collect one or two, the Buckeyes can reach double digits.

Ten interceptions over a 12-game season is not an aggressive target for this secondary.

Why the Under Is a Good Bet

The biggest counterargument has a name.

Caleb Downs.

Ohio State lost the best defensive back in college football.

The Buckeyes also lost Igbinosun and Lorenzo Styles Jr. to the NFL.

There is considerable talent replacing them.

There isn’t comparable experience.

Interceptions are also unpredictable.

Ohio State proved that last year.

The Buckeyes allowed only seven passing touchdowns and 129.7 passing yards per game while intercepting only eight passes.

A defense can be extraordinary without producing many interceptions.

Projection: 10-13 Interceptions

Bet: Over 9.5 Interceptions

Confidence: 6.5/10

Prop Bet #4: Ohio State Under 17.5 Points Allowed Per Game

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Ohio State Under 17.5 Points Allowed Per Game

• 9.3 PPG Allowed in 2025
• Matt Patricia Returns
• Elite Defensive Recruiting and Transfers

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Why the Under Is a Good Bet

Ohio State allowed only 9.3 points per game in 2025.

That gives the Buckeyes enormous room for regression.

Ohio State could allow eight additional points every Saturday and remain near this benchmark.

Patricia returns.

Johnson returns.

Walton returns.

Guerrieri returns.

Laurinaitis returns.

The defensive staff already knows how to maximize this system.

And while Ohio State lost seven drafted starters, the replacements aren’t ordinary.

Smith came from Alabama.

Russaw came from Alabama.

Houston already earned honorable mention All-Big Ten recognition.

Pierce is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection.

McClain received the same preseason recognition.

Mathews received second-team honors.

Jackson received third-team honors.

There is still tremendous talent.

Why the Over Is a Good Bet

The schedule is completely different from a typical Ohio State schedule.

The Buckeyes travel to Texas on September 12.

They later play at Iowa.

At defending national champion Indiana.

At USC.

Oregon comes to Columbus.

Ohio State travels to Nebraska.

And Michigan closes the regular season.

That is brutal.

Several of those teams could score 20-plus points even if Ohio State plays excellent defense.

The roster turnover also cannot be ignored.

Seven drafted starters means seven replacements.

Reese is gone.

Styles is gone.

Downs is gone.

McDonald is gone.

Curry is gone.

Igbinosun is gone.

Lorenzo Styles is gone.

Some regression is virtually inevitable.

The question is how much.

Projection: 14-17 Points Allowed Per Game

Bet: Under 17.5 Points Allowed Per Game

Confidence: 8/10

Best Ohio State Buckeyes 2026 Defensive Prop Bet

Ohio State Under 17.5 points allowed per game is my favorite defensive wager.

There is a major difference between expecting regression and expecting collapse.

Ohio State should regress.

It would be unreasonable to simply project another 9.3 points allowed per game after losing seven NFL Draft picks.

But the benchmark doesn’t ask Ohio State to repeat 2025.

It gives the Buckeyes more than eight additional points per game.

That is enormous.

Patricia remains one of the biggest reasons for confidence.

His first Ohio State defense didn’t merely finish No. 1 in one category.

It led the country in scoring defense, total defense and passing defense.

And the 2026 roster isn’t lacking talent.

Jackson.

Houston.

James Smith.

Russaw.

Pierce.

McClain.

Mathews.

Sanchez.

Those players give Ohio State enough experience to prevent the defense from completely starting over.

My projection is 14-17 points allowed per game.

Even 17.0 would cash an Under 17.5 benchmark.

How Ohio State’s Defense Could Determine the 2026 Season

Ohio State’s current regular-season win total is 9.5 victories at BetMGM, with other major win-total boards also listing the Buckeyes at 9.5.

That number is unusually low for Ohio State.

The schedule explains it.

Ball State opens the season in Columbus.

Then Ohio State travels to Texas.

Kent State follows.

Then Illinois.

At Iowa.

Maryland.

At Indiana.

After the bye, Ohio State travels across the country to USC.

Then comes Oregon.

Northwestern.

At Nebraska.

And finally Michigan.

There are legitimate loss opportunities everywhere.

Texas.

Indiana.

USC.

Oregon.

Michigan.

Even Iowa and Nebraska on the road aren’t automatic victories.

That means the defense cannot require half a season to develop.

Ohio State gets one relatively favorable game against Ball State.

Then comes Texas.

Patricia needs the new linebackers communicating correctly immediately.

The new defensive tackles need to play disciplined football.

The secondary must adjust to life without Downs.

And Jackson must become a featured pass rusher.

The good news is the offense should reduce some pressure on the defense.

Julian Sayin returns after a Heisman-finalist season.

Jeremiah Smith is one of the best players in college football.

Bo Jackson rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a freshman.

Ohio State shouldn’t need its defense to hold every opponent to nine points.

That is important.

If the Buckeyes average approximately 15 or 16 points allowed instead of nine, they can still win at a championship level.

My projection is 10-2.

That puts Ohio State Over the current 9.5-win total and securely in the College Football Playoff discussion.

The defense will determine whether the ceiling is even higher.

Conclusion

The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the 2026 season attempting something extraordinarily difficult.

They are trying to replace one of the greatest defensive groups in recent program history without substantially changing the standard.

The 2025 defense allowed only 9.3 points and 219.1 total yards per game.

Opponents rushed for only 89.4 yards per contest.

They passed for only 129.7.

Ohio State allowed just 13 total offensive touchdowns over 14 games.

The Buckeyes generated 35 sacks.

They went 12-0 during the regular season.

Then the NFL arrived.

Arvell Reese.

Sonny Styles.

Caleb Downs.

Kayden McDonald.

Davison Igbinosun.

Caden Curry.

Lorenzo Styles Jr.

Seven defensive starters were drafted.

That is staggering turnover.

Yet Ohio State still has legitimate championship-level defensive talent.

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. returns after producing 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.

Eddrick Houston returns after producing three sacks in a rotational role and finishing his season with 1.5 sacks against Miami.

James Smith arrives from Alabama after recording 28 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.

Qua Russaw adds another former Alabama defender with edge speed and positional versatility.

Payton Pierce steps into a larger linebacker role after producing 43 tackles despite making only three starts.

And the secondary has experienced leaders.

Jaylen McClain started all 14 games.

Jermaine Mathews started all 14 and intercepted two passes.

Devin Sanchez appeared in 13 games as a freshman.

The biggest reason for optimism, however, may remain Matt Patricia.

His first Ohio State defense was historically efficient.

Now comes a different test.

Developing stars is one challenge.

Replacing stars is another.

My projection has Ohio State allowing approximately 14-17 points and 275-300 total yards per game while generating 33-38 sacks, 10-13 interceptions and 18-22 total takeaways.

Those numbers would represent significant regression from 2025.

They would also still make Ohio State one of the better defenses in the Big Ten.

From a betting perspective, my strongest defensive play is Ohio State Under 17.5 points allowed per game.

The schedule is difficult enough to prevent me from expecting another single-digit scoring average.

But asking Ohio State to regress from 9.3 all the way beyond 17.5 is asking for an enormous defensive decline.

I don’t expect that.

The biggest player to watch is Jackson.

If he turns 6.5 sacks into eight or nine, Ohio State has its new premier edge rusher.

Houston and James Smith could become equally important.

If they control the middle, Patricia can remain creative.

Pierce is the key at linebacker.

McClain and Mathews are the keys in the secondary.

Nobody needs to individually replace Reese, Styles or Downs.

Ohio State needs several excellent players to collectively replace three exceptional ones.

That is difficult.

The schedule makes it even harder.

Texas.

Indiana.

USC.

Oregon.

Michigan.

Those games will reveal exactly how successful the defensive reconstruction has been.

But Ohio State has recruited too well, developed too many defensive players and retained too much coaching continuity to expect a collapse.

The 2026 Buckeyes defense probably won’t reproduce one of the most dominant statistical seasons in modern college football.

It doesn’t need to.

If Jackson becomes an All-Big Ten-level pass rusher, Houston and Smith control the interior, Pierce successfully takes command of the linebacker room and McClain and Mathews stabilize the secondary, Ohio State should once again possess a championship-caliber defense — one good enough to put the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title race, the College Football Playoff and potentially back in the national championship game.