No. 1 Ohio State at No. 5 Texas 2026 Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, September 12, 2026 Time: 7:30 PM ET Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas TV: ABC Tickets: As low as $487 Line: Texas -1.5 Moneyline: Texas approximately -120 / Ohio State +100 Over/Under: 48.5

College football gets an early playoff-caliber showdown Saturday night when No. 1 Ohio State travels to Austin to face No. 5 Texas.

Both teams were dominant in their openers. Ohio State crushed Ball State 56-3, generating 671 yards while holding the Cardinals to 165. Quarterback Julian Sayin completed 21 of 25 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith caught eight passes for 151 yards and two scores—all in the first half.

Texas answered with a 59-7 victory over Texas State. Arch Manning threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns, while Ryan Wingo caught seven passes for 121 yards and a score.

The current market remains close to the supplied numbers, with Texas around -1.5, a 48.5 total and a moneyline near Texas -120/Ohio State +100.

Top Four Prop Bets

Exact player props vary by sportsbook. The numbers below are projected betting targets unless offered by your book.

Prop Bet #1: Jeremiah Smith Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Tip: Smith Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

• 151 Yards in Opener
• Eight First-Half Catches
• Elite WR Matchup

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Smith needed only one half to produce 151 yards and two touchdowns against Ball State. Ohio State intentionally featured him, and Ryan Day acknowledged that Smith was central to the offensive plan.

Texas presents an enormous defensive upgrade, but this is exactly the type of game where Ohio State needs its best offensive player involved for four quarters.

Projected Bet: Jeremiah Smith Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #2: Julian Sayin Over 249.5 Passing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Tip: Sayin Over 249.5 Passing Yards

• 320 Yards Week 1
• 84% Completion Rate
• Full Four-Quarter Workload

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Sayin was nearly flawless in the opener, throwing for 320 yards while completing 84 percent of his attempts.

Unlike Ball State, Texas should force Ohio State to keep throwing deep into the fourth quarter. Sayin also has Smith, Devin McCuin and one of the deepest receiving groups in college football.

Projected Bet: Julian Sayin Over 249.5 Passing Yards

Prop Bet #3: Ryan Wingo Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Tip: Wingo Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

• 121 Yards vs Texas State
• Seven Receptions
• Manning’s Leading Target

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Wingo led Texas with seven catches for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1.

Ohio State’s defense will generate far more pressure than Texas State, which makes quick, reliable targets especially important for Manning.

Wingo should remain heavily involved.

Projected Bet: Ryan Wingo Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Prop Bet #4: Under 48.5 Points

BetMGM

4.5/5

Tip: Under 48.5 Points

• Elite Defenses
• 2025 Meeting Finished 14-7
• Top-Five Pressure Game

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The offensive numbers from Week 1 are impressive, but Saturday is a completely different matchup.

Ohio State held Texas to seven points in last season’s 14-7 victory and also beat the Longhorns 28-14 in the 2024 College Football Playoff semifinal.

Both teams have elite defensive athletes, and one or two red-zone stops could keep the game in the low 40s.

Bet: Under 48.5 Points

Players to Watch

Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State: Threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1.

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: Produced 151 yards and two touchdowns despite sitting the entire second half.

Bo Jackson, RB, Ohio State: Rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown as Ohio State finished with 237 rushing yards.

Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Opened with 305 yards and four touchdown passes.

Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas: Led the Longhorns with 121 receiving yards.

Texas Defense: Forced three turnovers against Texas State.

Keys to the Game

Ohio State

The Buckeyes must protect Sayin and create opportunities for Smith without becoming completely dependent on him.

Establishing Jackson and Ja’Kobi Jackson would make Ohio State much harder to defend.

Defensively, Ohio State must pressure Manning and prevent Texas from generating explosive plays off play-action.

Texas

Texas must handle Ohio State’s pass rush and give Manning enough time to find Wingo and Cam Coleman.

Home field matters significantly. Texas has won 21 of its last 22 games at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

The Longhorns also need to force Sayin into longer third-down situations instead of allowing Smith easy early-down completions.

Betting Prediction

Texas deserves respect as a slight favorite because of home field, but Ohio State has won the last two meetings between these programs and owns a 3-2 all-time series advantage.

The Buckeyes appear slightly deeper defensively, while Smith gives them the best individual offensive weapon in the matchup.

At Ohio State +1.5, getting points with the No. 1 team is appealing.

The stronger wager may still be the under. Both quarterbacks should produce yards, but touchdowns will be considerably harder to find than they were in Week 1.

The Verdict

Expect a four-quarter heavyweight fight.

Manning and Sayin both make plays, Smith and Wingo produce big receptions, and neither defense allows the opposing offense to completely take control.

Ohio State’s recent success against Texas and slightly stronger defensive front ultimately make the difference.

Final Score Prediction: No. 1 Ohio State 24, No. 5 Texas 21

Best Bet: Under 48.5

Against the Spread: Ohio State +1.5

Moneyline: Ohio State +100

Top Player Prop: Jeremiah Smith Over 89.5 Receiving Yards

Additional Props: Julian Sayin Over 249.5 Passing Yards | Ryan Wingo Over 69.5 Receiving Yards