Notre Dame vs BYU Hinges on Who Owns the Line

Notre Dame has won 16 straight games by double digits, and BYU’s entire plan on Saturday night is to make the Irish feel like they are running uphill at 4,649 feet. Notre Dame vs. BYU is the first top-10 game ever played at LaVell Edwards Stadium, and the deeper you dig into the numbers, the less this looks like the 10.5-point stroll the betting market expects.

The last time Notre Dame visited Provo, BYU won 20-17 in the 2004 opener. The Irish are a far better team now, but the matchup inside this game has a way of shrinking the gap.

Notre Dame Wins by a Thousand Paper Cuts

Notre Dame’s offense works like a metronome. The Irish rank third nationally in offensive success rate, yet sit 96th in explosive play rate, according to play-by-play data that excludes garbage time. They can keep moving the chains without asking CJ Carr to rescue every drive on third down.

The run game usually tells the same story. Only 9.5% of Notre Dame’s carries go for 10 yards or more, ranking 122nd nationally. Then Jonaz Walton gave that number a public argument with 181 yards against Stanford, including touchdown runs of 97 and 40 yards. BYU knows one bad fit can be costly.

BYU gets interesting here. Kelly Poppinga’s defense stacks the box 29% above expected and hits ball carriers behind the line 51% of the time, ninth nationally, according to Sports Info Solutions data cited by Sharp Football Analysis. An offense built on four- and five-yard gains is facing a defense designed to turn those into one-yard gains.

Notre Dame linebacker Drayk Bowen got to the heart of it while discussing BYU’s rushing attack with reporters this week.

“It’s going to be who can establish the line of scrimmage first, and who can set the other one back behind the sticks,” Bowen said.

Bear Bachmeier Has to Carry BYU Again

BYU’s problem is the mirror image. LJ Martin, who led the Big 12 with 1,305 rushing yards last season, is out until November, so Bear Bachmeier has become the run game. The sophomore threw for 329 yards and ran for 109 more in a 24-10 win over Iowa State, and BYU’s read-option plays average 8.0 yards per carry, 10th nationally.

In Notre Dame vs. BYU, the Irish are about the worst possible opponent for that plan. They lead the nation in total defense at 214.2 yards per game, rank first in PFF’s rush-defense and pressure grades, and have allowed just 3.3 yards per read-option attempt. Running Bachmeier into that front 20 times is a slow way to lose.

The smarter bet for BYU is Legend Glasker. The true freshman averages 19.9 yards per catch, has three receptions of 60-plus yards tied for the national lead, and has 83 yards and two scores on 11 rushes, mostly jet sweeps and end-arounds, according to Irish Sports Daily’s scouting report. The Irish rarely surrender explosive passes, so space may be BYU’s best chance to win snaps.

Altitude, Tempo and the Notre Dame vs BYU Spread

BYU plays slower than almost anybody, averaging 31.5 seconds per play, 135th nationally. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for the Irish to pull away. DraftKings’ 46.5-point total earlier in the week suggests Notre Dame vs BYU could be a grinder.

Marcus Freeman took the altitude seriously, too. The Irish stayed in the Park City area to acclimate, and Freeman leaned on assistants who have coached at elevation plus defensive back D.J. McKinney, a Colorado transfer, to shape a plan built on hydration and recovery between snaps.

Both programs arrived with a chip on their shoulder after last season, when Notre Dame became the first team left out of the 12-team playoff, and BYU missed out as well. Kalani Sitake did not pretend his team was the favorite during his Monday news conference.

“This week is a different beast, obviously, and we know we’re facing a great Notre Dame team, ranked No. 2 for a reason,” Sitake said. “They could easily be No. 1.”

Notre Dame has the better roster, the better defense, and the better quarterback in CJ Carr, who has one turnover all season. But BYU’s box-stacking front, a slow clock and a freshman who lives in open space add up to a close game. The pick here is Notre Dame 24, BYU 17, which means the Irish Leave Provo 7-0 and their streak of double-digit wins ends at 16.