No. 5 Notre Dame vs. Navy Football Game Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, October 31, 2026 Time: 12:00 PM ET Location: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, Massachusetts TV: ABC Tickets: As low as $36 Line: Notre Dame -29.5 Over/Under: 53.5 Records: Notre Dame 6-1 | Navy 2-5

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction & Matchup Preview

No. 5 Notre Dame returns from its bye week looking to rebound from its first loss of the season when the Fighting Irish face longtime rival Navy at Gillette Stadium.

Notre Dame fell 28-24 at No. 8 BYU on October 17, dropping to 6-1 after four consecutive convincing victories. Quarterback CJ Carr completed 27 of 49 passes for 261 yards, while Jaden Greathouse caught eight passes for 125 yards. The Irish rallied from an 11-point halftime deficit before BYU scored the winning touchdown with 1:47 remaining.

Navy enters 2-5 after consecutive losses to UTSA and North Texas. The Midshipmen scored 39 points against North Texas but allowed 49, despite producing 506 total yards and 363 rushing yards. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez rushed for 228 yards and three touchdowns while also throwing for 133 yards and another score.

That creates the defining matchup.

Navy ranks among the nation’s best rushing offenses at more than 300 yards per game, but Notre Dame allows only 67.3 rushing yards per game, one of the best marks in the country. The Irish are also allowing just 13.4 points and 235 total yards per game.

Notre Dame’s offense presents an entirely different problem for Navy.

The Irish average 41.1 points and 445.1 total yards per game, including 261.7 through the air. Navy has allowed 255.9 passing yards per contest and ranks near the bottom of the FBS in pass defense.

History also heavily favors Notre Dame. This will be the 99th meeting between the programs, with the Irish holding an 84-13-1 series advantage. Navy has not defeated Notre Dame since 2016, and the Irish won last year’s meeting 49-10.

Players to Watch

CJ Carr — Notre Dame: The junior quarterback has been exceptionally efficient throughout 2026. Through six games he had completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards, 16 touchdowns and only one interception before throwing for 261 yards against BYU.

Jaden Greathouse — Notre Dame: Coming off eight receptions for 125 yards against BYU and gives Carr a proven downfield target.

Nolan James Jr. — Notre Dame: The physical running back scored against BYU and will be important in keeping Notre Dame balanced.

Jackson Gutierrez — Navy: The centerpiece of the option attack. He has rushed for more than 200 yards twice in his last three games, including 232 against Tulsa and 228 against North Texas.

Michael Barrow — Navy: Rushed for 92 yards against North Texas and scored twice, including one receiving touchdown.

Jordan Collins — Navy: Big-play receiving threat averaging more than 35 yards per reception through seven games.

Keys to the Game for Notre Dame

The first priority is disciplined option defense. Navy wants defenders to hesitate, lose assignments and create running lanes. Notre Dame’s front must consistently identify the quarterback, dive and pitch responsibilities.

Offensively, the Irish should attack through the air. Navy opponents have completed nearly 70 percent of their passes and thrown 16 touchdowns through seven games.

Notre Dame must also start quickly. Allowing Navy to stay within one possession lets the Midshipmen shorten the game through long rushing drives.

Keys to the Game for Navy

Gutierrez needs another huge performance.

Navy has rushed for 363, 294 and 386 yards in three of its last four games, but Notre Dame presents an entirely different defensive challenge.

The Midshipmen must also limit explosive passes and dominate time of possession. Every long Navy drive keeps Carr and Notre Dame’s offense on the sideline.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

Player-prop availability varies by sportsbook. The following are recommended target lines if similar markets are offered.

Prop Bet #1: CJ Carr Over 225.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Carr Over Passing Yards

• 261 Yards vs. BYU
• Navy Pass Defense Vulnerable
• Elite Efficiency

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Carr threw for 261 yards against BYU, and Navy allows more than 250 passing yards per game.

Notre Dame should find favorable matchups downfield.

Prediction: Over 225.5 passing yards.

Prop Bet #2: Jackson Gutierrez Under 99.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Gutierrez Under Rushing Yards

• Elite Notre Dame Run Defense
• 67.3 Yards Allowed
• Difficult Matchup

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Gutierrez has been spectacular recently, but Notre Dame has allowed only 67.3 rushing yards per game as a team.

Expect the Irish to make stopping the quarterback their defensive priority.

Prediction: Under 99.5 rushing yards.

Prop Bet #3: Jaden Greathouse Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Greathouse Over Receiving Yards

• 125 Yards vs. BYU
• Carr’s Top Target
• Navy Pass Defense

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Greathouse is coming off his strongest performance of the season and should benefit from Navy’s problems defending the pass.

Prediction: Over 59.5 receiving yards.

Prop Bet #4: CJ Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

BetMGM

4.5/5

Carr Over Passing Touchdowns

• 16 TDs Through Six Games
• Navy Allowed 16 Pass TDs
• Strong Matchup

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Navy has surrendered 16 passing touchdowns through seven games, while Carr had already thrown 16 through his first six.

Prediction: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Betting Prediction

The 29.5-point spread is massive, but Notre Dame has the ideal defense for neutralizing Navy’s greatest strength.

Navy is capable of producing long drives, but consistently running against one of America’s best rushing defenses is a different challenge.

The Irish also enter rested and motivated after the BYU loss.

The Verdict

Final Score Prediction

Notre Dame 42, Navy 10

Betting Picks Summary

Notre Dame -29.5 Under 53.5 CJ Carr Over 225.5 Passing Yards Jackson Gutierrez Under 99.5 Rushing Yards

Navy’s option attack can create problems early, but Notre Dame’s defensive speed and discipline should gradually take control.

Once Navy is forced to play from behind, the matchup becomes even more favorable for the Irish.

Carr should have opportunities against a vulnerable secondary, while Notre Dame’s defense keeps Gutierrez from producing another 200-yard rushing performance.

Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Navy 10.

The market has moved between Notre Dame -29.5 and -30.5, while totals are available around 53.5 to 54.5. Confirm the final spread and player-prop lines before wagering.