No. 17 Florida vs. No. 3 Georgia Football Game Preview: Prediction, Betting Odds & 4 Prop Bets

Saturday, October 31, 2026 Time: 3:30 PM ET TV: ABC Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Georgia Tickets: As low as $253 Line: Georgia -10.5 Over/Under: 56.5 Records: No. 17 Florida 5-2 (3-2 SEC) | No. 3 Georgia 6-1 (4-1 SEC)

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction & Matchup Preview

One of college football’s greatest rivalries moves to a new setting Saturday afternoon when No. 17 Florida faces No. 3 Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

With Jacksonville’s stadium undergoing renovations, the rivalry will be played in Atlanta for the first time. Georgia leads the all-time series 58-44-2 and has won five consecutive meetings, including a 24-20 victory last season.

Both teams had an open week before this showdown, but they reached the break in completely different ways.

Florida enters 5-2 after pulling off a 27-24 upset at No. 7 Texas. Backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr., making his first career start in place of the injured Aaron Philo, completed 22 of 35 passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover. Jadan Baugh rushed 25 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns as the Gators controlled possession for more than 38 minutes.

Georgia enters 6-1 after suffering its first loss, a 27-24 home defeat against Auburn. The Bulldogs gained 440 yards, including 327 through the air, but committed three turnovers. Quarterback Gunner Stockton finished 22 of 34 for 272 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions before losing a late fumble that helped set up Auburn’s winning field goal.

The statistical comparison explains why Georgia is favored.

The Bulldogs average 43.0 points and 469.9 yards per game while allowing only 15.9 points and 276.4 yards. Florida averages a strong 39.6 points and 450.9 yards but has allowed 28.3 points and 375.7 yards per contest.

Georgia’s defensive advantage is especially significant against the run. The Bulldogs allow only 91.4 rushing yards per game, while Florida’s offense is built around Baugh and averages 194.3 rushing yards.

Players to Watch

Gunner Stockton — Georgia: Stockton has completed 74.1 percent of his passes for 1,570 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. His efficiency will be particularly important against a Florida secondary allowing 255 passing yards per game.

Dwight Phillips Jr. — Georgia: Phillips rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown against Auburn and provides the Bulldogs with explosiveness out of the backfield.

Craig Dandridge — Georgia: The freshman receiver produced four catches for 88 yards against Auburn, including a 41-yard reception.

Jadan Baugh — Florida: Florida’s offensive centerpiece has 763 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 109 yards per game. His ability to produce against Georgia’s elite front could determine whether Florida keeps this close.

Dallas Wilson — Florida: Leads the Gators with 29 receptions for 403 yards and three touchdowns. His size gives Florida a potential matchup weapon on the outside.

Tramell Jones Jr./Aaron Philo — Florida: Florida’s quarterback situation remains a major storyline. Philo has been working back from a shoulder injury, while Jones led the upset of Texas. Coach Jon Sumrall said both were taking first-team practice repetitions early in the week.

Keys to the Game for Florida

Florida must find a way to establish Baugh.

Georgia allows fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, but asking either Philo or Jones to win the game entirely through the air against Kirby Smart’s defense would be dangerous.

The Gators also need to attack Georgia’s secondary when opportunities develop. Stockton and the Bulldogs offense are capable of scoring quickly, meaning Florida cannot settle for field goals after crossing midfield.

Turnovers may be the greatest opportunity. Georgia committed three against Auburn, including Stockton’s late fumble. Florida forced the decisive turnover against Texas when Myles Graham sacked Arch Manning and forced a fumble with less than two minutes remaining.

Keys to the Game for Georgia

Georgia should test Florida’s secondary immediately.

The Gators allow 255 passing yards per game, while Georgia averages 272.1 through the air. Stockton has 16 touchdown passes and is completing more than 74 percent of his attempts.

The Bulldogs also need to eliminate the turnovers that cost them against Auburn.

Defensively, everything begins with Baugh. If Georgia holds Florida’s star running back in check and creates third-and-long situations, the Bulldogs can force Florida’s uncertain quarterback situation to decide the game.

Four Prop Bets to Consider

Player-prop availability varies by sportsbook. The numbers below are recommended target lines if similar markets are offered.

Prop Bet #1: Gunner Stockton Over 229.5 Passing Yards

DraftKings

4.5/5

Stockton Over Passing Yards

• 272 Yards vs. Auburn
• Florida Allows 255 Pass YPG
• 74.1% Completion Rate

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Stockton averages 224.3 passing yards but faces a Florida secondary ranked near the bottom of the SEC statistically.

He threw for 272 yards against Auburn, and Georgia should have favorable opportunities downfield.

Prediction: Over 229.5 passing yards.

Prop Bet #2: Jadan Baugh Under 89.5 Rushing Yards

FanDuel

4.6/5

Baugh Under Rushing Yards

• Georgia Allows 91.4 Rush YPG
• Elite Front Seven
• Difficult Matchup

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Baugh averages 109 rushing yards per game, but Georgia has surrendered only 91.4 rushing yards per game as an entire team.

Florida will give him opportunities, but finding consistent space against Georgia’s front will be difficult.

Prediction: Under 89.5 rushing yards.

Prop Bet #3: Dallas Wilson Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

Caesars

4.4/5

Wilson Over Receiving Yards

• 403 Season Yards
• Florida Receiving Leader
• Likely Passing Game Script

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Wilson averages 57.6 receiving yards per game and could see additional targets if Georgia slows Baugh.

Florida may also be forced to throw more frequently in the second half.

Prediction: Over 49.5 receiving yards.

Prop Bet #4: Gunner Stockton Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

BetMGM

4.5/5

Stockton Over Passing Touchdowns

• 16 TD Passes
• Florida Secondary Vulnerable
• Georgia Averages 43 PPG

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Stockton has thrown 16 touchdowns through seven games, while Georgia’s offense has scored 301 points.

Florida has allowed opponents to throw for 255 yards per game, creating another favorable matchup for Stockton.

Prediction: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

Betting Prediction

Georgia deserves to be favored, but 10.5 points is a significant number in a rivalry game.

Florida has already beaten three ranked opponents this season: Auburn, Ole Miss and Texas. The Gators have also had two weeks to prepare.

Georgia has the more complete team, particularly defensively. The Bulldogs allow nearly 100 fewer total yards per game and more than 12 fewer points than Florida.

The 56.5 total is interesting because both offenses average close to 40 points, but Georgia’s defense could prevent the game from becoming a true shootout.

The Verdict

Final Score Prediction

Georgia 31, Florida 24

Betting Picks Summary

Florida +10.5 Under 56.5 Gunner Stockton Over 229.5 Passing Yards Jadan Baugh Under 89.5 Rushing Yards

Georgia should respond strongly after its first loss, and Stockton’s matchup against Florida’s secondary is one of the biggest advantages in the game.

But Florida has already demonstrated that it can beat ranked opponents away from Gainesville.

Baugh gives the Gators enough offensive balance to stay competitive, and the uncertainty at quarterback is less concerning after Jones played mistake-free football at Texas.

The difference should ultimately be Georgia’s defense.

Expect Florida to remain within one possession deep into the second half before Stockton leads a late scoring drive and the Bulldogs’ defense produces the stop that seals the game.

Prediction: No. 3 Georgia 31, No. 17 Florida 24.

The supplied betting line is Georgia -10.5 with an over/under of 56.5. Current sportsbooks generally have Georgia between -10.5 and -11.5, while totals range around 55.5-56.5. Florida’s quarterback situation should also be monitored before wagering.